Christian Smith
A new poll from The New York Times has more bad news for President Biden as he struggles to catch up to former President Trump in the key battleground states that will decide the November election.
The poll found that Trump leads in five of the six swing states, with Wisconsin being the only place where Biden is ahead. More worrying for Biden is that the poll concluded that the president is losing support among young voters and black and Hispanic voters, all of whom are essential for his coalition to win re-election.
While Republicans took a victory lap, Democrats warned that a vote was nearly six months away from Election Day. But Biden’s allies acknowledged the president has work to do if he wants to be re-elected in November.
“With the usual stipulations about the election being six months away, Biden is behind,” said Jim Kessler, co-founder of the left-leaning think tank Third Way. “They need to be in a better place on the border, crime and inflation to win. They have a story to tell about every action they can take, but they need to get to work.”
CNN’s Harry Enten, who specializes in polling data, said Monday that The New York Times’ numbers in the Sun Belt states of Nevada and Arizona were “an absolute disaster.”
The Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin numbers were more viable for the Biden campaign, Enten said, signaling that a sweep of the Great Lakes states and the traditional “blue wall” is Biden’s most likely path to victory.
“It’s a plus for Donald Trump, but he hasn’t crossed the 270 mark yet,” Enten said.
Monday’s poll of registered voters in six key swing states found Trump leading Biden by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Michigan, 7 points in Arizona, 10 points in Georgia and 12 points in Nevada.
Biden led Trump by 2 points in Wisconsin.
Biden won all six states in 2020, although his margins in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin were particularly narrow, and all six are expected to be competitive in November. But battleground polls have shown for months that Trump leads Biden, despite his numerous lawsuits and strong economic data released by the White House.
“What’s so impressive about this is that polls have historically underestimated Trump’s support, not overestimated Trump’s support,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, who noted that Trump had 49% or 50% support in four of the states where he leads.
“And so if you couple this poll with almost 100,000 people showing up in arctic blue New Jersey, that’s a disaster for Biden,” he added, referring to a rally Trump held in Wildwood, N.J., over the weekend. .
The poll, conducted by the Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer, found that Biden led Trump among black voters, 63% to 23%, which would represent a significant decrease from the 87% of black voters who voted for Biden in 2020. The poll also found that Trump and Biden are only narrowly separated among Hispanic voters and voters ages 18 to 29, both groups that Biden won by double digits in 2020.
A drop in enthusiasm among Black voters, which played a major role in Biden’s upset of Georgia last cycle, could mark a blow to Democratic turnout. Democrats warn that the poll numbers do not reflect the majority of black voters, but add that there is still work to be done by the party in conveying messages to the voting bloc.
“There is certainly a segment of the population out there, including in my community, that is frustrated, some are angry, some are confused and some of them don’t know,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist. “We have to make some adjustments to how we communicate, where we communicate, who we use to communicate and what we communicate.”
Biden’s struggles largely stem from voters’ frustration with the war in Gaza, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed as Israeli forces pursue Hamas, and anxiety about the economy as the cost of gas, of groceries and other goods remains high.
“It’s the price of gas, it’s being able to put food on the shelves… being able to go to the store and buy whatever you want for your family,” said Vince Galko, a Republican Party strategist based in Pennsylvania. “You can’t do that in many places. It is difficult.”
The war in Gaza could pose a particular problem for Biden because it is an issue that could cause young voters and Democratic-leaning voters to abandon the president or stay home in November. The White House and Biden’s campaign have tried to tread a cautious line, calling on Israel to do more to protect civilians and bring more aid to Gaza, while also promising that support for Israel is “clad in iron” in the wake of the attacks. of Hamas last October.
Democrats running competitive Senate races are ahead of Biden, which is a silver lining for the party and a sign that Biden may have room to grow if he rallies his base.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) leads his Republican opponent, Dave McCormick, 46% support to 41%. In western Nevada, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) leads Republican Sam Brown with 40% support to 38%, while in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake with 45% support to 41%.
“Racing is hyperlocal,” Seawright said. “What this means is that we have to spend more time in places where elections traditionally take place. It doesn’t mean we neglect other places, but we have to intentionally spend more time in those places.”
The president and Biden’s campaign have consistently ignored polls that show Trump leading the race, arguing that the polls are just a snapshot in time, with Election Day still months away. Biden’s campaign has argued that it has the money and infrastructure in key swing states to win in November, while Trump has spent campaign money on legal fees and his operation has been slow to ramp up activity in swing states.
There are also some signs of momentum for Biden outside of the Times poll.
Biden fares better among likely voters, with the Times poll showing Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin separated by 3 percentage points or less among that group.
The Hill/Decision Desk’s average of national polls showed Biden narrowly ahead of Trump last week, for the first time since last year. A Quinnipiac University Research released last week had Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 6 percentage points.
“The only consistency in recent public polling is inconsistency,” Biden campaign pollster Geoff Garin said in a statement. “These results need to be compared with the 30-plus polls that show Biden surging and winning — which is exactly why drawing broad conclusions about the race based on one poll’s results is a mistake.
“The reality is that many voters are not paying much attention to the elections and have not yet started to make decisions – a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll,” Garin added. “These voters will decide this election, and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over.”
Seawright echoed this point, noting Democrats’ fundraising ability and organization this cycle.
“Forget about voting for a second,” he said. “I am confident in the money we have raised so far. I am confident in the organizational structure. I’m certainly confident in the game plan and the candidate we have.”
“I think in the end these are the things that will make the difference on the margins. It won’t be research in six, seven months.”
