Christian Smith
The prospect of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualifying for election in Texas is fueling speculation that he could harm Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) re-election chances.
Kennedy announced earlier this week he has gained more than enough signatures to compete in the Lone Star State, a major boost for the independent candidate, who appears to be attracting support from both President Biden and former President Trump. (Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, which track where Kennedy took the votehas not yet confirmed its announcement in Texas.)
The development also raised questions about how Cruz could be impacted, with some observers arguing that voters who support Kennedy are likely to back the senator’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Colin Allred (Texas).
“This is definitely not good for Cruz,” said Mark P. Jones, a Rice University political science professor who has researched the Senate race. “Kennedy’s presence at the polls could really help Democrats.”
Kennedy’s campaign announced earlier this week that about 245,000 people have joined his effort to get to the polls. The Texas Secretary of State confirmed having received the candidate’s petition, but did not confirm the number of signatures.
It’s the latest sign that Kennedy is increasing the number of ballots his name will appear on in the fall. And while much of the concern about the independent candidate focuses on how he will influence the presidential race, some experts have noted that he could also impact electoral contests in certain states.
One of the states that has come up repeatedly in recent weeks is Texas, where Cruz is seeking a third term. Allred, a former professional football player, won the Democratic nomination for Senate in March and will face the incumbent in November.
Cruz found himself locked in a surprisingly tight battle for reelection in 2018, when he ran against former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) and ended up winning by just a few percentage points.
Some observers argue that Kennedy — an unpredictable candidate who has demonstrated appeal to young, independent voters — could give Allred a boost, motivating people who might otherwise sit out the election entirely.
“RFK Jr. is likely to mobilize a group of voters to turn out and vote in the presidential race who, without his presidency, would not have participated,” Jones said. “As soon as these voters finish voting in the first race for president, they will start voting.”
“There is a set of demographics that Kennedy is likely to present that will help Allred more than Cruz,” he added.
An environmental lawyer and member of the most famous dynasty in American politics, Kennedy polled certain groups but generally hit a double-digit ceiling at the national level.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this week found that Kennedy got slightly more support from Trump than Biden in key battleground states, with 8% of the former president’s supporters supporting independents and 7% of Biden supporters supporting him.
Meanwhile, Cruz is the clear favorite to win the Texas Senate race this year. An average of Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polls shows him leading Allred by 47 to 40 percent.
Still, there have been some warning signs for Cruz as Kennedy tries to make inroads in the state. A recent research of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation found that 46% of Kennedy supporters in the state preferred Biden, compared to 29% who supported Cruz. But the same poll found Kennedy trailing Trump and Biden by just 9%.
The poll also found Cruz leading Allred, 46% to 41%.
Most political agents recognize the difficult climb that Allred faces and doubt that Kennedy’s presence at the polls will have an outsized impact on the Senate race.
“[Cruz is] the front-runner, and I seriously doubt a Democrat can hold the Senate seat in Texas in 2024, regardless of Kennedy’s independent presidential bid, especially given how terrible the Biden administration is on border security,” said Brandon Bolin, a Austin-based attorney who is supporting Kennedy.
Republicans also reject the prospect of Kennedy hurting the Republican senator’s chances.
“We expect Kennedy to get more votes from Democrats than Republicans, as Texans are excited to vote for Sen. Ted Cruz,” Texas Republican Party Chairman Matt Rinaldi told The Hill.
“From the Rio Grande Valley to the Panhandle, Texans have seen the devastating effects of Joe Biden’s extreme liberal agenda and are ready to make America great once again.”
In fact, Texas has repeatedly been a source of heartbreak for Democrats. After losing the Senate race against Cruz in 2018, O’Rourke challenged Gov. Greg Abbott (R), a strong Trump ally, in 2022, leading some party members to hold out hope that they could still make the state blue. In the end, however, Abbott prevailed by more than 10 points, even as Democrats defied the odds and cruised to victory in other parts of the country.
And Cruz, despite his considerable lead in the polls, astutely recognized the possibility of a formidable challenge on Election Day. He warned his supporters last month that Democrats had their sights set on the state and has put on a display of bipartisanship in recent weeks by leading the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration.
Kennedy’s sheer unpredictability in the race nevertheless led some to sound the alarms in favor of the senator.
“If [Kennedy] can increase Gen Z turnout by a few percentage points, two-thirds of those votes or more will go to Colin Allred,” said Jones, the pollster. “Furthermore, when independents go out to vote, this is a group in dispute. We also see that it has strong support among Hispanic women.”
But there’s another challenge Democrats have to face in Texas: Biden’s low approval ratings and Trump’s enduring popularity. O DDHQ/The Hill poll aggregate of the presidential race in Texas finds Trump leading the president, 46% to 36%, while Kennedy gets 10%.
“Republican enthusiasm for Trump is through the roof in Texas and these voters will go to the polls,” said Sherry Sylvester, senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, who added that Cruz has higher favorable numbers this year than in previous years.
“Even if some younger Democratic voters turn out at higher rates than expected to vote for Kennedy — and that’s a big if, for a number of reasons — there won’t be enough of them to impact Cruz, even if they fall. ballot to vote in the U.S. Senate race after clicking the box for president,” she said.
At least one of Kennedy’s allies agrees.
“The economy and the border are the two most important issues on voters’ minds this year,” said Bolin, the Austin-based attorney. “I don’t see how well these issues will play out for Democratic challengers this year, especially in Texas.”
