How Trump’s conviction could change the dynamics of the 2024 race

Former President Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records at his Manhattan criminal trial, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already unprecedented campaign.

As a convicted felon, Trump is not prevented from continuing to campaign for president, since the Constitution does not prohibit candidates from running for president even if they are convicted of a crime. In fact, there is precedent for a candidate running from behind bars: in 1920, Socialist Party candidate Eugene V. Debs ran for president from a federal penitentiary in Atlanta.

Trump is the first former US president to be found guilty of crimes and the first major party candidate to run for office after being found guilty of a crime. See how his conviction could change the 2024 campaign:

How Trump Can Campaign After His Conviction

Now that he has been convicted, Trump will almost certainly appeal the jury’s decision and it is likely that he will be able to return to the campaign as the process unfolds.

The next development of the case will occur at sentencing. Judge Juan Merchan has broad decision-making power over when the sentencing takes place and what the punishment will be like. Typically, sentencing hearings are scheduled within six to eight weeks of conviction. Trump faces a maximum penalty of up to four years in prison and a $5,000 fine for each of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Sentencing options available to Merchan include prison, probation, conditional discharge, fines or house arrest.

The judge could impose limitations on his travel, such as banning Trump from leaving the state and taking away his passport, but Merchan said he does not want to interfere with his ability to campaign.

“I think the judge wouldn’t dare interfere with his right to speak to the American public because it’s also the voters’ right to be informed,” said John Coffee, a Columbia Law School professor and expert on corporate affairs. governance and white-collar crime.

In a recent survey of dozens of cases brought by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office in which falsifying business records was the most serious charge in the indictment, attorney and author Norm Eisen found that about one in 10 of these cases resulted in a sentence of imprisonment.

“I find this fascinating,” said Caroline Polisi, a criminal defense attorney and professor at Columbia Law School. “Many commentators say the reason he won’t be incarcerated is because the logistics of that in relation to the Secret Service would be excessive. On the other hand, if you’re saying he should be treated like any other defendant, we have a lot of data that says 90% of other defendants would not face prison time in this situation.”

The impact of the conviction on Trump’s ability to campaign could largely depend on what sentence Merchan ultimately hands down and when Trump serves it.

“In the context where he is found guilty and then sentenced to no prison time, I don’t think it will make the slightest difference,” Polisi added. “There may be some minor problems. He may not be able to vote for himself. But other than that, I don’t think it will cause any problems.”

In determining Trump’s sentence, the judge could take into account his numerous violations of the gag order – which led Merchan to threaten him with prison time if the violations continued – and his lack of showing remorse or respect for the legal system. Throughout the trial, Trump referred to Merchan as “conflicted” and “corrupt” and the case itself as a “hoax.”

“In New York, a 78-year-old defendant, who is a first-time offender, committed a non-violent crime and has a very different history – in some ways, being a former president is different. in the world, there would be no chance of an incarceration sentence,” Coffee said. “They can use probation, they can use fines. But there may be a view among many judges that you have to show that no one is above the law, and even the future president should get a taste of prison.”

Even if Merchan orders Trump to serve time behind bars, the sentence could be delayed until his appeal is complete.

“In other cases, when there is not someone running for the White House, it would be more or acceptable to immediately put them in prison,” Coffee said. “You could certainly put special conditions on what he could do or put him under house arrest, but I think until we get to the election itself, we’re going to have to let Donald Trump run around and campaign.”

The possible impact of the conviction on Trump’s poll numbers and support

Trump predicted that a conviction in this trial could boost his poll numbers.

“Even if he is convicted, I think it will have absolutely no impact. It may increase the numbers, but we don’t want that. We want to have a fair verdict,” Trump said. told CBS Pittsburgh in an interview earlier this month.

Trump’s support among his Republican base has been remarkably resilient in the face of his multiple criminal cases. In the months following his four indictments last year, Trump maintained his lead in the Republican primaries, winning the nomination despite the dozens of criminal charges he faced.

Many Trump supporters CBS News has interviewed since the trial began have said a guilty conviction won’t change how they vote in November, embracing the former president’s grievances as their own.

“Stormy Daniels has already been evaluated and stuff. It’s kind of a coincidence,” Michigan resident Lori Beyer said at a recent rally in Freeland, Michigan, adding that she would vote for Trump regardless of conviction. “I don’t think it’s going to have an impact as far as I’m concerned.”

It remains to be seen whether a conviction changes the opinion of voters who are not committed to the former president. A recent CBS News Poll found that most Americans believe Trump is “definitely or probably” guilty of the charges he faced in New York. The overwhelming majority of Democrats – 93% – believed Trump was guilty, while 78% of Republicans said he was not. Independents were divided, with 53% believing he was guilty and 47% saying he was not.

Opinions about whether Trump was guilty or not were already highly partisan, according to Kabir Khanna, deputy director of elections and data analysis at CBS News. Most people who believed Trump was guilty also thought the jury would convict him and vice versa.

Furthermore, Khanna said that people who followed the trial closely were the most polarized in their opinions.

“Together, these factors could blunt the impact of the verdict on the opinions of an already divided public,” Khanna said. “Some voters may be swayed by the news, but I wouldn’t expect a radical change.”

Other research supports this notion. A NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll released Thursday found that 67% of registered voters nationwide said a Trump conviction would make no difference to how they vote. Among independents, just 11% said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.

The conviction also gives the Biden campaign a potentially potent new weapon in its arsenal: the ability to brand Trump as a convicted felon. Biden has remained largely silent on Trump’s trial while it was underway, but NBC News reported last week, he planned to become more aggressive about Trump’s legal troubles after the trial concluded, while acknowledging that Trump would be on the ballot regardless of how his legal cases played out.

Trump used the trial to help boost his fundraising and will likely try to capitalize on the conviction. The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee saw an influx of donations after jury selection began, with the two entities raising $76 million in April. His campaign had about $50 million in cash in early May as he prepared to return to the campaign after the trial.

The former president repeatedly used the events of the trial to raise money, including when he was held in contempt for violating the gag order against him.

“I would be arrested A MILLION TIMES before I let those filthy dogs get their hands on you,” read a typical fundraising appeal.

Trump’s other criminal cases

The New York case may be Trump’s only one four criminal cases to reach a conclusion before voters cast their votes in the fall, giving additional weight to the guilty verdict.

The two federal cases brought by special counsel Jack Smith remain in limbo.

In Washington, DC, Trump faces charges related to his actions to remain in power after the 2016 election. Trump has argued that he is immune from prosecution and the Supreme Court is currently weighing his claim.

The high court heard arguments in the immunity dispute on April 26 and is expected to issue a ruling on the matter before the end of the court’s term, likely in June. If the case is allowed to move forward, there is a slim possibility the district court could schedule the trial before November. If the judges side with Trump and find him immune from prosecution, the charges will be dropped.

In Florida, Trump faces federal charges stemming from withholding classified documents after leaving the White House. Judge Aileen Cannon, appointed by Trump, indefinitely postponed the trial. She ruled in early May that choosing a trial date would be “reckless and inconsistent with the court’s duty to fully and fairly consider” numerous unresolved pretrial motions. These motions include Trump’s efforts to dismiss the case entirely, as well as questions regarding what confidential information might be revealed at trial.

In the third case that remains pending, Trump faces state charges related to the 2020 election in Fulton County, Georgia. The trial on that matter is also on hold while Trump seeks the removal of District Attorney Fani Willis from the case. The Georgia Court of Appeals recently granted Trump’s appeal of a ruling that allowed him to stay, temporarily suspending the trial.

Trump’s two federal cases could be largely in the hands of voters if they are not resolved by November, a fact that increases their personal interest in the outcome. If he wins and returns to the White House in January 2025, Trump could order the Justice Department to seek to drop the charges entirely.

Trump has pleaded not guilty in all criminal cases against him.