Is Trump going to prison? What to know about the possible sentence after his conviction

Washington – Former President Donald Trump has already been convicted at the New York criminal trial, immediately raising a series of questions and launching the case into uncharted territory where a judge will have to determine for the first time whether a former president should be imprisoned on a felony conviction.

Trump was convicted by the jury Thursday 34th, falsifying business records to conceal a $130,000 payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to buy her silence before the 2016 presidential election. Manhattan returned a guilty verdict after a trial that lasted six weeks and featured more than 20 witnesses.

Each of the 34 criminal charges carries a fine of up to $5,000 and a four-year prison sentence. But whether Trump will go to prison is another question – one that is up to the judge at the time of sentencing.

When will Trump be convicted?

The judge set a July 11 sentencing date following the jury’s verdict on Thursday.

The timing is in line with similar white-collar crime cases, where sentencing typically occurs three to eight weeks after conviction, according to Dan Horwitz, a defense attorney who previously prosecuted white-collar cases for the U.S. district attorney’s office. Manhattan.

The sentencing will take place four days before the start of the Republican National Convention.

What to expect from the sentence

The minimum sentence for falsifying business records in the first degree is zero, so Trump could receive probation or a conditional discharge, a sentence without prison time or up to four years for each crime. Trump would likely be sentenced to serve prison time simultaneously on each count, meaning up to four years in total.

“The judge could sentence him to anything from zero to the maximum,” Horwitz said. “So he could sentence him to a period of months in prison, he could sentence him to a period of weeks in prison, he could sentence him to a sentence where he would be required, for example, to go to prison every weekend for a period of time and then serve the remainder of the sentence on probation.”

On a analysis of comparable cases brought by the office of Manhattan District Attorney Norm Eisen, who wrote a book about the federal prosecution of Trump related to the 2020 election and served as special counsel in the former president’s first impeachment, found that about 10 % resulted in arrest. But the circumstances surrounding the case make any generalized comparison difficult.

Trump could also be sentenced to house arrest, where he would wear an ankle bracelet and be monitored instead of going to prison. Horwitz suggested that a sentence of house arrest, which falls somewhere between no punishment and a stint in state prison, may be the most likely outcome. It would also satisfy Trump’s unusual political and security situation.

A house arrest sentence would also allow Trump to continue campaigning – albeit virtually – with the ability to hold press conferences and remain active on social media. Throughout the trial, Judge Juan Merchan emphasized the importance of allowing Trump the ability to campaign and exercise his First Amendment rights as he seeks another term in the White House. But it is only part of the equation that the judge must weigh in his decision.

What will the judge consider in Trump’s sentence?

There are a number of factors the court can take into consideration in sentencing, including the nature and extent of the conduct, who was injured, whether there are any victims and acceptance of responsibility, Horwitz said. Trump has repeatedly denied any guilt in the case.

“Courts will give credit to a defendant who pleads guilty, accepting responsibility for his conduct, rather than not accepting responsibility by going to trial and being convicted,” Horwitz added, saying that “the sentence after a trial because you don’t accepted responsibility is more rigorous than it would have been otherwise.”

The defendant’s conduct during the trial may also play a role, hence Trump’s repeated violation of Merchan’s principles gag order can be a significant factor in your sentence. During the trial, Trump was accused more than a dozen times of violating a gag order that prevented him from making public comments about likely witnesses, jurors, lawyers and court officials involved in the case.

Trump’s sentence could also be complicated by the lifetime Secret Service protection he received as a former president. The issue arose during the trial when the judge found Trump in contempt violating a gag order. Although Trump faced multiple fines, the judge expressed that arresting Trump was “the last thing I want to do” because it would have disrupted the trial and presented challenges to the Secret Service agents tasked with protecting the former president.

Trump’s imprisonment would likely need to include a rotation of Secret Service officers, and he would need to be isolated from other inmates. The former president’s food and personal items would likely need to be screened for his protection, among other logistical considerations.

“For all environments around the world, we study locations and develop comprehensive, layered protection models that incorporate cutting-edge technology, protection intelligence and advanced security tactics to protect our protectees,” said Anthony Guglielmi, Chief of Service Communications United States Secret. in a statement.

No U.S. prison has ever had to deal with the possible arrest of a former president. Horwitz said mechanisms exist for inmates in protective custody in correctional facilities and state prisons, but it remains unknown how the process would actually work.

Where could Trump be arrested?

If Trump were sentenced to a period of house arrest, the former president could serve his sentence outside of New York, for example, at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida estate, where New York State would coordinate with the Department of Florida probation, which would monitor Trump’s confinement, Horwitz said.

If Trump is sentenced to prison, the location will depend on the length of the sentence.

If Trump faces more than a year in prison, New York law requires that his sentence be served in a New York correctional facility. But if his sentence is less than a year, it will be served in a New York City correctional center, such as Rikers Island.

What comes next?

Trump could seek to stay the execution of any sentence pending appeal, meaning he would not have to begin serving the sentence until an appeals court makes a decision, which is not uncommon in white collar cases in federal courts. from New York, Horwitz said. The measure could delay any prison sentence until the election – or even after.

In any case, although a possible arrest raises some obstacles for Trump’s presidential campaign, his conviction does not prevent him from continuing to run – even if he is behind bars.

Olivia Rinaldi and Jake Rosen contributed reporting.