5 takeaways from primaries in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and D.C.

June 5, 2024
3 mins read
5 takeaways from primaries in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and D.C.



A number of states held primaries for election contests on Tuesday, with President Biden and Donald Trump inching closer to their respective nominations and some notable Senate showdowns solidifying.

Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota and Washington, D.C. held some of the last presidential primaries of the cycle. Guam and the Virgin Islands will officially end their presidential primaries on Saturday, when they both hold their Democratic contests.

But Tuesday night also featured other prominent primaries, like in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D) officially picked up an opponent in Tim Sheehy. Meanwhile, in New Jersey, an establishment-backed Republican Party gave a surprise blow for Donald Trump and Rep. Andy Kim (DN.J.) took a step closer to be the state’s next senator.

Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s primary:

Kim reaches victory, but faces wild card with Menendez

Rep. Andy Kim (DN.J.) cruised to victory in the Democratic primary for the New Jersey Senate race on Tuesday, defeating several distant candidates.

Kim was widely seen as the front-runner after Senator Bob Menendez (NJ) announced in March that he would not run as a Democrat. Menendez finally ran as an independent this week.

The New Jersey senator and his wife face charges over allegations that he acted as an agent of the Egyptian government, among other allegations, although the senator has denied any wrongdoing.

Democrats, including Kim, pressured Menendez to resign, though the senator rejected those calls.

Although Menendez faces a steep climb to re-election as an independent, it remains unclear to what extent he could be a spoiler against Kim. If Menendez still gets a smaller but not insignificant share of the vote, it’s possible that could provide an opportunity for Republicans to flip the seat.

Trump candidate falls

New Jersey handed Trump an unexpected defeat when Republicans nominated real estate developer Curtis Bashaw over Trump-backed candidate and Mendham Township Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner in the New Jersey GOP Senate primary.

Most of the former president’s supporters won their respective Republican primaries, although New Jersey — home to Trump critic Chris Christie — was one example that proved Trump’s endorsement had its limitations.

Trump largely avoided the contested Senate primaries, with a few exceptions, including in Ohio, when he backed businessman Bernie Moreno over Ohio Secretary Frank LaRose (R) and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R).

Notably, Trump has yet to comment on his preferred Senate candidate in Nevada, which will have one of the most competitive races for a seat in the Upper House this year. The GOP Senate primary features retired Army Captain Sam Brown, supported by Senate Republicans, and former Icelandic ambassador Jeff Gunter, who served during the Trump administration.

A good night for the New Jersey establishment

One of the clear winners of Tuesday night’s primary was the New Jersey establishment, as several candidates including Bashaw and Rep. Rob Menendez (DN.J.) won their respective contested primaries.

Menendez, son of the embattled senator, survived a primary challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Although prosecutors have not linked Menéndez’s son to the senator’s corruption and bribery scandal, it is still persecuted the House Democrat during his own re-election campaign, with Bhalla emphasizing Menéndez’s ties to the state party.

Bashaw’s victory in New Jersey was also a boost for establishment Republicans after he defeated Serrano Glassner, who had aligned himself strongly with Trump during the primaries. Serrano Glassner called Bashaw a “coward” and described him as a “fake” ally.

Bashaw, like Serrano Glassner, supported Trump for president. However, Bashaw previously gave money to the presidential campaign of former New Jersey governor Chris Christie this cycle and has already supported a letter that considered Trump a “threat to democracy.”

Protest votes for Trump and Biden continue

Although Biden and Trump have long been seen as leaders of their respective parties, both candidates have received substantial protest votes across the country. Tuesday was no different.

At the time of publication on Tuesday night, Biden had received 84 percent support in New Mexico, while the uncommitted vote – a movement formed largely in protest over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war – had received close to 10 percent. Democratic candidate Marianne Williamson also received close to 7 percent.

Meanwhile, Trump received 85% support, with 76% of the estimated votes counted. But close to 15 percent of GOP primary voters voted for Trump rival Nikki Haley, Christie or “uncommitted.”

Haley announced last week that she would vote for Trump, and many of the early votes cast for her in the New Mexico primary were likely sent before she endorsed him. Still, her continued support suggests that a segment of the GOP primary electorate does not view Trump as her preferred candidate.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, close to 9 percent voted uncommitted, although Biden won 88 percent of the vote, with 66 percent of the vote estimated at the time of publication.

The results point to the growing urgency both candidates face in wooing holdouts angered by their respective parties’ standard bearers. However, it is not yet known how this will be reflected in November.

Holders hold on

Tuesday’s primaries also underscored the power of the mandate, as several lawmakers dodged primary upsets.

In addition to Menendez in New Jersey, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) fended off a primary challenge from state Rep. Tanner Smith (R), while Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) won his primary in Montana’s 1st Congressional District. Montana.

In Iowa, GOP incumbents Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Rudy Feenstra also defeated their primary challengers.

The results will likely be seen as a welcome development for both parties ahead of an already tumultuous election cycle.



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