Biden faces growing warning signs from ‘uncommitted’ vote

President Biden lost more than half a million voters to the “disengagement” movement in this year’s Democratic primaries, an effort that drew 30 delegates in five states and that underscored frustration within his own party over his handling of the Israel-War. Hamas.

With this week marking the last Democratic primaries in US states for the 2024 election year, the “Uncompromised” movement won 10 percent of the vote in New Mexico and nine percent in New Jersey, one of several states with an Arab population. -significant American.

Those states lag behind places like Michigan, where more than 101,000 voters earlier this year voted against Biden, and Minnesota, whose 45,000 votes earned the movement 11 delegates, the most of any state.

The protest vote shows Biden facing the increasingly challenging task of wooing those voters back before it’s too late, something Democrats say the campaign should take seriously.

“Of course they should be concerned,” says a former Biden campaign aide he said. “If they are not planning to vote [Biden], they were already disappointed. Donald Trump is a disruptor and an agent of change, so he could be an attractive alternative for some of these people.”

Polls show Biden and his political rival, former President Trump, running neck and neck, including in battleground states like Michigan — although several polls have shown Trump running just ahead of Biden.

Trump won only a fraction of the Arab-American voters that Biden did in 2020, but the move could mean that many of those same voters may simply sit out this year’s elections.

The Abandon Biden movement, which is behind much of the protest vote-getting effort, on Thursday declared “the conclusion of the primary season and our tireless march toward the general election.”

“Our mission is clear: Joe Biden must be defeated,” the group said in a press release. “We will not stand still. We are mobilized, furious, and committed to ensuring that Joe Biden is defeated in the general election. The time for accountability is now.”

Since the protest vote effort was launched, Biden has offered a ceasefire agreement that, for the first time, would bring a lasting end to the war in Gaza — but that has done little to appease some of those behind the effort to go away. against the Democratic president.

While those angered by Biden’s handling of the war told The Hill in November that the president could still work to win his vote, Abandon Biden’s rhetoric became a vehement refusal to vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee in November.

The movement said on Thursday that “Biden’s speeches are nothing more than Diplomacy Theater, a grotesque display of blame shifting as the massacre continues” and that Israel’s “death machine is fueled by Biden’s policies.” .

Trump, however, has called Biden “weak” on Israel and promised to “fix its mess” if re-elected, although he did not provide specific details on how he would do so. The president’s Middle East policies have angered many Arab-Americans, including Trump’s policy of banning people from Muslim-majority countries from traveling to the United States.

O 30 delegates obtained by the “Uncommitted” vote spans five states, with Minnesota awarding 11 delegates, Kentucky and Hawaii each awarding 7 delegates, Missouri awarding three delegates, and Michigan awarding two delegates.

Michigan voters, however, cast the most votes of any state, with more than 100,000 votes cast. A total of 650,000 votes were cast in these states.

Biden may also be facing problems with lawmakers in his own party.

A Democratic lawmaker, who asked not to be identified, told The Hill that there are people like Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) telling people not to vote for Biden because of his handling of war and people are listening, adding questions to the Biden campaign.

Tlaib, a progressive lawmaker, said earlier that year that She was “proud” to vote did not commit to the Michigan primary to express his frustration with the war in Gaza.

“The president obviously has to reach out to disengaged voters and appeal to their concerns,” said David Castagnetti, who was the main liaison to Congress during former Democratic candidate John Kerry’s presidential campaign.

However, he reiterated the notion that polls indicate voters are more concerned about the economy than foreign policy issues in the cycle — an argument the Biden campaign also used to address the protest vote.

A poll from New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer held from April 28 to May 9, it found Trump leading in five of six swing states and found that the economy was the most important issue in deciding who people would vote for in November, with foreign policy ranking as the ninth most important issue .

Arab and Muslim Americans and young Americans are the most prominent disengaged voters, but many Black and Hispanic voters, who were critical to Biden’s 2020 victory, also express concerns.

The NAACP said Thursday that Biden could build your support with black voters if he suspends arms sales to Israel. An In Our Own Voice: Black Women’s National Reproductive Justice Agenda poll with PerryUndem found that 24 percent of Black voters identified the Israel-Hamas war as “extremely important” to them ahead of the election.

While there is a threat that these voters will stay home or vote for a third-party candidate, Biden could make up for their loss by expanding to moderate voters, some say.

“The trap for the Biden team is the temptation to overtly appeal to these Democratic voters lost in the far-left primaries. They will never be satisfied,” said Jim Kessler, executive vice president of policy at Third Way.

“The gold mine of new votes for Biden will be in the center. Biden must continue to make a strong case for border security, reducing crime and reducing inflation. That’s the ticket,” he added.

The idea of ​​Biden expanding his campaign to not rely solely on the voters who won him the White House in 2020, which includes progressives who may be voting against him on Israel, comes at a time when Biden is 0.8 percentage points behind of Trump, according to an aggregation of research from the Decision Office Headquarters/The Hill.

When asked about the lack of commitment with the Democratic primaries almost over, the Biden campaign responded: “The president believes that making his voice heard and participating in our democracy is fundamental to who we are as Americans.”

“He shares the goal of ending violence and a just and lasting peace in the Middle East. He is working tirelessly toward that end,” a campaign spokesperson added.

While voters angry about Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza will have to decide whether they prefer another Trump White House over Biden’s, Democrats also point to protest votes against Trump as something he should be concerned about as well.

“Since Super Tuesday and [former South Carolina Gov. Nikki] After Haley’s exit from the race, Donald Trump won 80 percent of the vote, while Biden won 87 percent. This shows that both candidates have work to do, but Trump has significantly more,” Kessler said.