Trump and Biden neck and neck nationally and in battlegrounds — CBS News poll

Among all the factors weighing on voters’ minds in this election, the role of former President Donald Trump Guilty verdict pales in comparison to issues like the economy, inflation and the border — all items on which Trump maintains advantages. As such, the verdict did not dramatically reshape the race.

But what we see are a few more activated Joe Biden voters as opposed to Trump. His vote has become increasingly centered on anti-Trump sentiment rather than affinity for Biden himself. Today, the majority of Biden voters say their main reason is to oppose Trump, and has been doing so since March.

Whether this dynamic is enough to sustain Biden emerges as one of the central questions of this campaign – a dispute that today is essentially linked to the likely preference of voters, both nationally and among the collective battleground states.

Among Trump voters, the verdict is a bust. Some say it’s a reason to show him supportsome say they are supporting him despite this, and the vast majority of them say it doesn’t matter anyway.

Most say Trump’s conviction is not a factor in their voting decision. In fact, the judgment it ranks much lower as a factor when considered by itself than any other question tested.

Most Biden voters now say their main reasoning is to oppose Trump, not because they like Biden — an increase in that reasoning since March.

(Mr. Biden capitalized on this kind of sentiment in 2020 also, as substantial numbers expressed it in many swing states that year.)

Furthermore, we see this dynamic again in the way people frame their voting decision in terms of whether this election is a referendum or a choice.

When people say this election is just a matter of opinion about Trump, most people vote for Biden.

However, when people see this race as a judgment on Biden alone, they vote for Trump.

And when they frame it as a comparison between the two, slightly more vote for Trump than Biden.

Here’s why this direct comparison now favors Trump:

Trump surpasses Biden on a number of qualities, such as being seen as effective, tough, energetic and – more specifically – competent. Plus, more people think Trump has a vision of where he wants to take the country.

Biden does better on personal likeability and being seen as compassionate. But this likability gap doesn’t match voting preferences, because many people who don’t like Trump personally vote for Trump anyway.

And here’s what partially isolates Trump after the trial verdict: so many of his supporters, and the Republican base, I saw the accusations as not serious and the trial as politically motivated.

In truth, most Republicans believe that the New York prosecution was not triggered by decisions by New York prosecutors, but by guidance from the Biden administration. Looking ahead, if he is elected, that view could have implications for what they would like Trump to do in turn. Half of Republicans want Trump to take revenge on his political opponents by investigating them and bringing criminal charges against them — a number that rises among MAGA Republicans.

The border and immigration

There is broad support for Mr. Biden’s recent decision executive order dealing with the border, including by most Republicans, but despite this, voters who place a high priority on the border support Trump by a large margin.

Voters still tend to think that migrant crossings will decline further under Trump.

However, Trump spoke about actions he would take on immigration if elected to a second term, including deportation efforts.

A majority of nearly six in 10 voters say they would favor, in principle, a new government program to deport everyone undocumented immigrants living illegally in the USA.

(This is not purely partisan, it includes a third of Democrats. It rises to nine out of 10 Republicans.)

A similar majority would like local authorities to try to identify those living in the U.S. illegally, and just under half support the idea of ​​creating large government detention centers to determine which people should be deported.

Main voting groups and justifications: Who supports who?

Opinions about the national economy are more negative today than they were in March, and voters’ financial concerns continue to drive greater support for Trump. This, despite the positive macroeconomic numbers in the jobs report and stock market.

But inflation – probably a proxy term for still high prices – continues to affect voters.

Trump is up more than 2 to 1 among those who say higher prices have been a problem. And Trump leads Biden among those who say the economy is an important factor in their vote.

Many continue to think they will be better off financially with Trump in office than with Biden.

Nationally, Biden’s support from some key parts of his base has increased slightly since March, including women. More women now consider abortion an important factor in their vote than in March and those who do are important to Biden.

The president’s support among Black voters remains below his performance in 2020, but has improved since the spring. More black voters now say he fights for people like them than in March.

Biden has improved slightly with independents compared to our last national poll in early March. (Given that time frame, it’s not exactly clear when this shift might have occurred.) That said, there is some anti-Trump sentiment among independents who now support Biden. A large majority of them are doing so now to oppose Trump.

But Biden does not have a significant advantage among Hispanics, a group he won handily in 2020. More Hispanic voters think they will be better off financially if Trump wins than if Biden wins.

Trump continues to do well with white voters without a college degree and older voters, groups that supported him in 2016 and 2020. And despite speculation about the “anti-Trump” vote in the GOP primaries, more than nine in 10 Republicans are supporting Trump, similar to the number of Democrats who support Biden.

Many of these same patterns occur in swing states.

Nationally, Republicans have a turnout advantage that helps lift Trump, but in swing states, Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to say they will definitely vote, perhaps due to campaigns trying to mobilize their voters.

This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,063 adult U.S. residents interviewed between June 5 and June 7, 2024. Data includes an oversample in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The sample was weighted by sex, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past voting. The margin of error is ±3.2 points among all adults and ±3.8 points among registered voters.

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