Nevadans vote in Senate primaries with competitive general election on horizon

Washington – Nevadans are voting Tuesday in the Senate primaries as Republicans are expected to nominate a candidate to face incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen in November, when the balance of the Senate will be up in the air.

Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in the Silver State since 2012. And it’s been longer than that, since 2004, since a Republican presidential candidate won Nevada. But Republicans flipped the governor’s mansion in the last election, and recent researches showed former President Donald Trump a slight lead over President Biden, suggesting the state’s races could be seriously in play for the Republican Party.

Meanwhile, Democrats face a long chance of holding the majority in the Senate. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents currently have a slim majority of 51 seats, which they are working hard to defend. But this cycle poses major obstacles, with Democratic senators up for re-election in a handful of states that Trump won in 2020. And in five other states considered battleground states – such as Nevada – the Democrats’ re-election is not guaranteed.

For Rosen, this year marks his first run for re-election. The former synagogue president unseated a Republican incumbent in 2018 after one term in the House. But whether the moderate Democrat can keep his seat in November is an open question.

Although a long list of Republicans are running in Tuesday’s Republican primary, businessman and former Army captain Sam Brown is widely seen as the GOP frontrunner. And perhaps boosting his prospects was a last-minute Trump endorsement over the weekend.

Trump stopped short of a full endorsement of Brown during a rally in Las Vegas on Sunday, calling Brown a “good man” after months of praising several GOP candidates and teasing an endorsement more recently. But hours later, the former president took to his social media platform to clarify that “Sam Brown has my full and complete endorsement,” adding that he has “already proven his love for our country by being terribly injured and making a comeback of a lifetime.” entire”. .”

Brown received a Purple Heart for his service in Afghanistan, where he suffered third-degree burns to part of his body. He has the support of most of the Republican Party, including Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo. But there are other Republicans, like former ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, who are giving Brown a run for his money in Tuesday’s primary.

Gunter, who worked under the Trump administration and has the support of some of the former president’s allies, has tried to position himself as closest to Trump throughout his campaign, calling himself “110% pro-Trump.” And the strategy may have been helped by the former president’s delay in giving his opinion on the race. It remains to be seen whether Trump’s endorsement, which came after early voting in the state ended, cements Brown’s victory.

“Looking at the timing of this endorsement, it’s obviously too late to have the kind of impact it could have had, because a lot of Nevadans have already voted,” says Rebecca Gill, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “If his intention was to help Sam Brown win, he would have made that endorsement some time ago.”

Looking ahead to the general election, a survey conducted in late April by Emerson College found Rosen leading Brown 45% to 37% in a hypothetical matchup. And the starter saw a greater advantage against Gunter.

Still, Nevada has historically had electoral difficulties, with high population turnover.

“It’s really hard to do research here in Nevada because people move around so much,” Gill said. “So I think that just makes things a lot more uncertain at the start of the election about how close the race really is, who really has the upper hand.”

In fact, the race appears to be getting tighter and tighter. In April, the Cook Political Report changed its rating from “thin Democrat” to “fickle,” noting in one analysis that “unique forces” are at play in Nevada, including a newer electorate, the president’s lagging poll numbers and a tourism-dependent economy still struggling to recover after the pandemic.

Nevada’s economy, heavily dependent on tourism and hospitality, was one of the hardest hit by pandemic shutdowns in 2020. And the job market in Las Vegas, in particular, was one of the hardest hit in the country, leading to a much stronger recovery. slower than in other states. For Nevadans, economic issues that have affected the nation more broadly, such as price inflation and housing prices, are particularly relevant.

In 2022, Republicans benefited from former Gov. Steve Sisolak’s unpopular COVID-19 policies, while Lombardo hit the Democrat hard on COVID-related shutdowns. But Senate races have a different dynamic and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto managed to survive.

Cortez Masto’s race for Nevada’s other Senate seat was one of the closest in the country. But the Democrat ultimately won her re-election bid against former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who defeated Brown in the primary. Republicans are betting that Brown will be a stronger candidate this cycle, while Rosen’s mark is not as deep as that of his Senate counterpart, who served as Nevada’s attorney general before coming to the Senate.

But turnout could change the dynamics of Cortez Masto’s election during midterm elections, when turnout is generally suppressed. And if people in Clark County, home to liberal voting blocs in Las Vegas, turnout will be key for Democrats.

“People in Clark County don’t tend to vote in such high numbers when there isn’t a presidential race on the ballot. And so the depression and turnout in Clark County could make it harder for Democrats in statewide elections,” Gill said. But she added that voter fatigue and low enthusiasm in this particular presidential election could “make this race incredibly close.”