5 things to watch in primaries in Nevada, South Carolina, Maine and North Dakota

Voters will go to the polls Tuesday in four states for congressional primaries that will test the influence of former President Trump’s endorsement.

Nevada, South Carolina, Maine and North Dakota are holding congressional primaries, as well as state and local races, and Trump made endorsements in all major competitions. They will determine whether some holders can handle against serious opponents in the primaries and nominees for key seats the Republican Party is targeting in November.

Here are the five races to watch in Tuesday’s primary:

Trump scores a win in Nevada?

For months, Trump largely stayed out of the crowded Republican primary for Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D) Senate seat, one of the key potential comeback opportunities for the GOP this year.

But he issued a last-minute statement endorsement on Sunday night for retired Army Capt. Sam Brown, who is seen as the leading candidate for the nomination. This happened after a rally the former president gave in Las Vegas earlier in the day he praised Brown, who was present, as a “good man”, but stopped short of endorsing him.

Numerous candidates seek the nomination, but Brown’s most notable opposition comes from former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter and former state Assembly member Jim Marchant.

Both Gunter, who served during the Trump administration, and Marchant, the Republican candidate for Nevada Secretary of State in 2022 who has been an ardent supporter of Trump’s false claims of voter fraud, have tried to portray themselves as more loyal to Trump than than Brown, who at least initially distanced himself from Trump.

Brown had already won the support of many Senate Republicans, and many early votes had already been cast before Trump’s endorsement, but the additional momentum puts Brown in an even stronger position.

Can Mace avoid a second round?

Representative Nancy Mace (RS.C.) generated considerable controversy over her previous term as a member of the House representing South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District. She is faced accusations of flip-flops on issues and was attacked for turning from opposing Trump to supporting him and joining other Republicans in unseating former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

She will face two primary opponents on Tuesday, notably former state employee Catherine Templeton. Veteran Bill Young, who founded a nonprofit that supports homeless veterans, is also challenging Mace.

But Mace appears to be the favorite to win the primary as she seeks a third term with the support of top GOP leaders, including Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Templeton has the support by former Representative Joe Wilson (RS.C.).

Polls also showed Mace has an advantage over Templeton and Young. She led in an Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll last month with 47% to Templeton’s 22% and Young’s 7%.

Still, Mace could be forced into a runoff in this race because candidates in South Carolina are required to receive a majority of votes to advance, increasing the likelihood that Mace will be well ahead of her opponents but short of a majority. If necessary, the second round would be held on June 25th.

Who will face Golden in Maine?

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area that Trump carried in 2016 and 2020, despite Democratic Rep. Jared Golden having represented the district since 2019. Republicans will target it in November to try to turn a House seat into red in a predominantly blue New England.

Golden was narrowly re-elected in 2022, with 53 percent of the final vote count against his predecessor, former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R).

Two candidates are facing off for the GOP nomination to challenge Golden this year: state Reps. Austin Theriault and Mike Soboleski.

Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, is the favorite to win the nomination. He has the support of Trump, Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), and has significantly outperformed Soboleski.

An April poll that Theriault’s campaign commissioned showed he led with 30 percent to Soboleski’s 7 percent, although most respondents said they were undecided.

But the Sun Journal in Lewiston, Maine, reported that Soboleski has received support from many conservatives in the district, including the 2020 GOP nominee, former state Rep. Dale Crafts.

Who will be Burgum’s likely successor?

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) announced in January, after an unsuccessful presidential bid, that he would not seek a third term as governor, opening the race to his successor.

The contest quickly attracted two candidates who are major players in the state: Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) and Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R). Armstrong has served as North Dakota’s only House member since 2019, and Miller has served in the state’s second-highest office since Burgum appointed her to the position last year.

Armstrong has racked up most of the key endorsements in the race, including from Trump, North Dakota Sens. Kevin Cramer and John Hoeven, and the state Republican Party. He also has drove comfortably in the few polls carried out in the primaries.

But Miller has the support of Burgum, who endorsed her shortly after she entered the race in February. She also previously served as director of operations for the governor’s office before becoming lieutenant governor.

Whoever wins the Republican primary will almost certainly be elected the next governor of the solidly red state.

Can far-right Republicans pull off a victory?

No incumbent House member has yet to lose a primary for renomination this election cycle, but a group of far-right House Republicans is trying to help spark an upset against Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.).

Timmons is facing a challenge from state Rep. Adam Morgan (R), who founded the South Carolina State House’s Freedom Caucus. Morgan has received support from several of the most conservative members of the U.S. House, including the Freedom Caucus chairman, Bob Good (R-Va.), Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida), and Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.).

Timmons has a strongly conservative voting record, but Morgan is trying portray Timmons as a “do-nothing moderate.” He told NBC News in an interview that Timmons’ support for keeping McCarthy as speaker of the House was a factor in his decision to run.

Timmons has received support from many prominent Republicans, including Trump, Johnson, McMaster and Lt. Governor Pamela Evette. McMaster and Evette campaigned to Timmons on Monday.

Timmons has also considerably outpaced Morgan, but past elections suggest some potential vulnerability. He narrowly avoided a runoff in his 2022 primary in a four-person race.

But with a two-person race this year, the primary will be another battle test between factions of the Republican Party.