FBI quarterly report shows 15% drop in violent crime compared to last year

The last preliminary quarter crime numbers from the FBI show dramatic reductions: a 26% drop in murders, robberies are down nearly 18%, and violent crime overall is down 15% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to last year in the same period.

However, the FBI only released percentages on Monday, not the underlying numbers, because at this time only 72% of law enforcement agencies have provided their crime data. The agency will release more complete numbers once 80% have participated.

Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, which tracks and analyzes criminal justice data, noted that three months of unaudited crime data can be considered “often accurate, although inaccurate.” However, he characterized the overall direction as showing a “very large decline in murders and considerable declines in violent and property crimes,” in an interview with John Dickerson of CBS News on Monday.

Asher highlighted that 2020 saw an approximately 30% increase in murders, followed by another smaller increase in 2021. In 2022, there was a “small decrease,” and last year, he estimated there was “an 8% to 12% decline in murders.”

“It is almost certain that we will have a third consecutive year of murder in decline – we should be roughly at or below where we were in 2019 in terms of murders,” Asher said.

He estimated that, overall, there will likely be “a considerable decline” in violent crime in 2023, and if that is also the case in 2024, “we’re talking about… some of the lowest violent crime rates we’ve ever had.” seen since the early 1970s.”

Attorney General Merrick Garland said he understood more than three years ago that addressing the rise in violent crimes that occurred at the start of the pandemic “would be one of the greatest challenges we would face at the Department of Justice.”

“That’s why we invest all available resources into working with our law enforcement and community partners to reduce violent crime,” Garland said in a statement Monday. “But we know there is much more work to do and that the progress we have seen could still easily disappear.” He promised that the department would continue to find and prosecute “the root causes of gun violence,” invest in programs to enable the hiring of more police officers, and support community violence intervention programs.

Perceptions about crime will likely play a role in electionsthat didn’t escape President Biden, who praised the FBI’s latest report and in a statement Monday claimed credit for working with communities to “put more cops on the beat, hold violent criminals accountable, and get illegal guns off the streets.”

“As a result, Americans are safer today than when I took office,” he said — an inherent criticism of his predecessor and 2024 opponent, former President Donald Trump.

In April, Trump was asked about a previous situation FBI report showing that crime rates have decreased by 2023. He refused to accept that the report was accurate.

“The FBI fudged the numbers and other people fudged the numbers. There’s no way crime could have gone down last year. There’s no way because there’s migrant crime,” he said. Time. “Are they adding to migrant crime? Or do they consider it a different form of crime?”

Asked if he thought “the local police departments,” the source of the data, “are wrong,” he responded, “I don’t believe it’s the local police. What I saw was that the FBI was providing false numbers.” But he offered no evidence to support his claim.

Asher said homicide rates are likely to be largely “some of the lowest we’ve reported in 60 years,” though he added, “we’re still talking about 18,000 or 19,000 homicide victims” nationwide.

“It’s still a problem that needs to be resolved,” he said. “And a lot of work needs to be done, even though the trends are very positive.”

Andres Triay contributed to this report.