GOP averts disaster in Ohio special election shocker: 5 primary takeaways

A couple races closer than expected highlighted Tuesday’s elections in Maine, NevadaNorth Dakota and South Carolinawho put Donald Trump’s endorsement power to the test as he heads toward a rematch with President Biden.

But it was a special election that went largely unnoticed in Ohio and ended up being the biggest shock of the night. Elsewhere, Trump-backed candidates defeated their main challengers, although at least one of them did so with far less breathing room than he had hoped.

Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s primary results:

Republicans avert disaster in Ohio

It should have been a drama-free race.

Instead, the special election for Ohio’s deep-red 6th Congressional District turned out to be something of a nail-biter, with the Democratic nominee far exceeding expectations.

The dispute was sparked by former Rep. Bill Johnson’s (R) decision to resign in January, with the winner serving out the remainder of his term.

Johnson has represented the 6th District since 2011, winning re-election in 2022 by 35 points. Trump would have won the district based on its current makeup by 29 points.

But GOP state Sen. Michael Rulli only defeated Democratic candidate Michael Kripchak by about 9 points, based on the latest vote count, with more than 95 percent reporting. This represents an outperformance of about 20% for the Democratic candidate compared to what was expected for this district.

Dave Wasserman, senior editor and election analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, assigned the reason for the surprising result was the “terrible” turnout in the district and the fact that Democrats had an advantage with highly engaged voters who were more likely to vote.

While it didn’t result in a surprising upset, Democrats have reason to be encouraged by the results. It is the last special election in which the party performed well – the last example being that of Rep. Tom Suozzi (DN.Y.) comfortable victory in the February special election to fill the remainder of the former congressman. Mandate of George Santos (RN.Y.).

Ohio is still likely a safe state for Trump in November, but the high turnout among Democrats is a positive sign as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) faces a competitive re-election bid.

McCarthy’s revenge tour stumbles out of the gate

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) got his first opportunity to exact revenge on the Republicans who voted to impeach him with Rep. Nancy Mace (RS.C.) competitive primary.

The two-term congresswoman has sparked controversy on a few occasions, including her vote alongside conservative House members to remove McCarthy as speaker and her shift from criticizing Trump to supporting him for re-election. She has also faced accusations of U-turns on key issues and negative headlines about high turnover in her congressional office.

All of this helped generate two main challenges, one from former South Carolina state employee Catherine Templeton and the other from nonprofit leader Bill Young. Templeton was seen as the main challenger and ran to Mace’s right, accusing the incumbent of being a “fraud” who is not actually loyal to Trump.

An additional challenge for Mace in the three-way primary was that she needed to not only come first but also secure a majority to avoid a runoff later this month. But Mace, who had the support of Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), comfortably secured a majority, nearly 30 points ahead of Templeton in second place in the latest vote count.

Groups associated with McCarthy had wanted to support Templeton in unseating Mace as part of a broader effort to unseat the handful of Republicans responsible for him losing his job.

His easy victory on Tuesday is another black eye for the California Republican.

GOP divisions on full display

Although Mace’s primary received more national attention before the election, his fellow South Carolina Representative William Timmons (R) ultimately faced a much tighter race, highlighting the divisions roiling the Republican Party.

Timmons, who has represented the state’s 4th Congressional District since 2019, has a solidly conservative record in the House and supports Trump, but faced a primary challenge to his right from state Rep. Adam Morgan (R), who founded and chaired the extreme Freedom Caucus. right in the state House.

Timmons had the support of Trump, Johnson and House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), as well as South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster (R). But Morgan has received support from several of the House’s most conservative members, including U.S. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-Va.) and Rep. Ralph Norman (RS.C.).

Morgan attacked Timmons as a moderate who was not conservative enough to cut government spending and oppose aid to Ukraine. He also cited Timmons’ support of McCarthy as inspiration for him to run.

Timmons responded by emphasizing his conservative credentials and his ties to Trump.

The holder held on to win nomination and almost certainly another term in the red district, but only by a modest 5-point margin at last count. That’s much closer than in 2022, when he prevailed in a four-candidate primary, and it also showed the limitations of Trump’s support.

A crucial Senate race is set

Another showdown that will help determine which party controls the Senate in the next session of Congress was scheduled with Sen. Jackie Rosen (D-Nev.) and Republican Sam Brown officially becoming their party’s nominees.

Brown, a retired Army captain, was the campaign arm chosen by Senate Republicans to oppose Rosen, who faced minimal opposition for renomination for a second term.

Trump stayed out of a somewhat crowded field for the Republican nomination for most of the race, but issued a last-minute endorsement of Brown on Sunday.

Brown defeated former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter and former state Assembly member Jim Marchant, both of whom tried to promote their ties to the presumptive GOP presidential nominee and accused Brown of not being a true Trump supporter.

Gunter derided Brown as “Scam Brown” and claimed that Senate Republicans secured Trump’s endorsement of Brown in his own candidacy, but the Senate GOP campaign arm and Trump’s senior adviser, Chris LaCivita, rejected this.

Brown was seen as the front-runner even before Trump’s endorsement and many early votes had already been cast before Trump endorsed him, but the former president will be able to count him as another of his endorsed candidates who won the primary.

And most importantly, Trump and Brown may need a relationship as Republicans try to compete in Nevada, a key battleground state in November, simultaneously.

Trump scores victories with his endorsements

Trump weighed in on every major race on Tuesday before the election and continued his near-perfect record of support in Congress this year.

Along with Brown, Mace and Timmons, all of the Trump-backed candidates in each of the key races won their primaries, and by larger margins than Timmons.

In the Republican primary for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District face Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, Trump-endorsed state Rep. Austin Theriault (R), a former NASCAR driver, easily defeated his colleague, State Rep. Mike Soboleski (R).

And in North Dakota, Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) overwhelmingly overcome Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R) in the primary race to succeed outgoing Gov. Doug Burgum (R). Armstrong was the front-runner with support from Trump, North Dakota Sens. Kevin Cramer (R) and John Hoeven (R) and the state party, but two-term incumbent Burgum supported Miller.

Trump’s pick to succeed Armstrong as the state’s sole House member, North Dakota Public Service Commission member Julie Fedorchak, also won comfortably in a crowded field.

Both Armstrong and Fedorchak will be favorites to win their respective elections in the ruby ​​red state.