What’s known, and not known, about the partnership agreement signed by Russia and North Korea

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un say a new strategic partnership is a step forward, but what it means for their relationship is still uncertain .

The pact requires both countries to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance in the event of war, according to North Korean state media. Although the agreement, signed Wednesday at a summit in Pyongyang, may represent the strongest agreement signed between the countries after the Cold War, there are differing opinions on how strong the security commitment is.

Kim claimed the deal elevated bilateral relations to the level of an alliance, while Putin was more discreet and did not call it an alliance.

North Korean state media reported the text of the agreement, which also includes broader cooperation in military, foreign policy and trade. Russia did not publish its version of the text.

Relations between a rising Russia and small, isolated North Korea – both nuclear powers – have warmed significantly in recent years, amid Russia’s growing acrimony with the West over its invasion of Ukraine and suppression of all domestic opposition.

One of the first effects of the deal came on Thursday, when an official from South Korea’s presidential office said the country would reconsider its policy of limiting its support for Ukraine to non-lethal supplies. The official spoke on condition of anonymity during an informational meeting in accordance with office rules. South Korea, a growing arms exporter, has provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine but has not supplied weapons directly to Kiev.

Here’s a look at what’s known about the new partnership — and what’s still unclear.

What did Russia and North Korea promise?

Most of the debate over the partnership agreement revolves around the article promising mutual aid. According to North Korean state media, the section states that if one of the countries is invaded and brought into a state of war, the other must mobilize “all means at its disposal without delay” to provide “military and other assistance nature”.

But it also states that such actions must be in accordance with the laws of both countries and with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which recognizes the right of a UN Member State to self-defense.

To some analysts, this sounds like a promise that either nation would intervene if the other was attacked, renewing a promise made under a 1961 treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union. That agreement was scrapped after the collapse of the USSR, replaced in 2000 by one that offered weaker security guarantees.

Cheong Seong Chang, an analyst at South Korea’s Sejong Institute, said the agreement echoes the language of the 1961 treaty, as well as provisions in the U.S.-South Korea mutual defense treaty on activating channels for coordination should either face the threat of invasion.

“North Korea and Russia have fully restored their Cold War-era military alliance,” Cheong said.

Other experts were more cautious, saying the section was carefully drafted to avoid the implication of automatic interventions and strictly limits the circumstances in which any country would be required to intervene. and is willing to do so, said Du Hyeogn Cha, an analyst at Seoul’s Asan Institute of Political Studies.

While it is rare for any defense treaty to specifically state that a country is required to automatically intervene to defend a partner under attack, the strength of the commitment can be signaled in other ways, such as how the U.S. deploys thousands of troops in South Korea. . and closely coordinates with its ally training and weapons systems, Cha said. But Russia, for example, does not have a troop presence in North Korea and the countries do not have an established track record in joint military activities and coordination, beyond alleged munitions transfers from the North to Russia.

The fact that the article invokes countries’ domestic laws and the UN Charter may reflect that Russia attempted to limit its defense obligation to very strict conditions: when it is clear that North Korea did not instigate aggression, the attack on North is legally recognized in Russia is considered a war and Russia’s defense of the North is justified by the UN, Cha said.

“The agreement is a symbolic declaration that promises to expand cooperation, but leaves a lot of room for interpretation when we put it into practice,” Cha said. “The biggest concern about the summit is not whether or not (Russia) has committed to automatic military intervention, but the possible expansion of North Korean arms transfers to Russia and transfers of Russian military technologies to the North.”

What types of military cooperation are possible?

Putin said he would not “exclude the development of military-technical cooperation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in accordance with the document signed today.”

This declaration, in fact, formalizes something that Western countries claim is already happening.

The US and other allies allege that Russia received ballistic missiles and ammunition from North Korea as the war in Ukraine depletes Moscow’s inventory, and that Russia has made technology transfers to Pyongyang that could increase the threat posed by the program of Kim’s nuclear weapons and missiles.

North Korean state media also said the deal requires the countries to take steps to strengthen their joint defense capabilities, but did not specify what those steps would be, or whether they would include combined military training.

The agreement also calls on countries to actively cooperate in efforts to establish a “just and multipolar new world order”, the North’s Korean Central News Agency said, underlining how countries are aligning themselves as they face separate and growing tensions with the United States and its allies.

“Russia and North Korea will likely keep the details of this cooperation closely guarded, but the agreement is a way to let the world – and particularly the United States and its allies know – that they will work together,” Ankit said. Panda, senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

What is the economic aspect of the pact?

The partnership also calls for the development of economic ties, an especially important issue for North Korea, which is subject to a series of international sanctions. North Korea needs food, industrial materials and other goods and in turn can supply labor to Russia’s war-depleted workforce. These workers could then convert ruble wages into dollars or euros, potentially becoming a source of the hard currency that North Korea desperately needs.

Such activities would violate UN sanctions. Hours before arriving in North Korea, Putin promised in an opinion piece that the countries would overcome sanctions together. Russia is subject to Western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine.

Putin said the volume of trade between Russia and North Korea had increased ninefold over the past year, but admitted that the amount itself remained “modest.”

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Heintz reported from Tallinn, Estonia.