Christian Smith
Former President Trump boasts a slim lead over President Biden in critical battlegrounds after his historical conviction in a criminal trial in New York.
New research from Emerson College/The Hill State reveals Trump rose four points over Biden in Arizona and Georgia, three points more in Wisconsin and Nevada, and two points more in Pennsylvania. In Michigan, Trump leads by one point, and the pair are dead even in Minnesota.
“In our first poll in several swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there was little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden remaining largely consistent since November,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. The results are remarkably within the polls’ margin of error.
Trump was found guilty at his secret trial in Manhattan last month, but the legal blow failed to dent his lead in the presidential race as he heads toward a rematch with Biden in November. He is scheduled to be sentenced in early July, just before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
A plurality of voters in all seven swing states surveyed said Trump’s conviction has no impact on their votes.
At the same time, a majority of voters in each state said the recent conviction of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, will also have no impact on his vote.
The president is not implicated in this case, which marked the first trial of the son of a sitting commander in chief, but some Democrats are supposedly worried that the matter could affect Biden and be a Distraction throughout the campaign.
The new Emerson/The Hill poll also found that independent voters supported Trump in all seven states, although his support among that group has fallen in three states since April — down five points in Arizona, three points in Michigan and eight points in Pennsylvania.
Biden, on the other hand, lost support among independents by six points in Georgia and five points in Nevada over the same period.
But while Biden trails Trump in the White House race in key battlegrounds, the Democratic Senate candidates lead their respective Republican rivals in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Representative Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Arizona, is defeating Republican Kari Lake and beating Biden by two points – as is the senator. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in her race against Republican challenger Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) against likely GOP challenger Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is leading Biden by three points in Minnesota, and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is leading the president by seven points in Nevada.
1,000 registered voters were interviewed in each state between June 13 and 18, and the credibility interval of the results, similar to a poll’s margin of error, is plus or minus 3 percentage points in 19 of the 20 cases in each state.
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