Georgia will leave one 2024 presidential candidate feeling peachy

(NewsNation) – President Joe Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state of Georgia in 28 years, the last time he and former President Donald Trump faced off in the general election, although he repeats that success appears to be an uphill climb .

Biden won the state by the narrowest margin in 2020: less than 12,000 votes (0.23%), making Georgia the state with the closest margin of victory.

Before this election, Headquarters of the decision desk currently gives the former president a 63% chance of taking control of the state this time.

In Georgia, both campaigns aggressively court their base voters and hope to erode the margins in each other’s key constituencies.

The Biden campaign

By the end of this week, state Democrats and the Biden campaign will have 12 offices open across the state with more than 60 staffers. These numbers will continue to rise as the summer progresses.

One of the key constituencies in the Peach State is black voters.

When Stacey Abrams ran for governor in 2018 and 2020, she was an organizing force who helped mobilize and attract Democratic voters across the state. Although she was unsuccessful in both bids, experts say her work helped Biden win the state.

This year, Biden is courting those voters again, noting that he has committed more than $16 billion to HBCUs and was invited to give the commencement address at Morehouse College.

Additionally, the campaign is spending on ads that focus on African-American voters, and Biden has given interviews to Black media outlets, sharing how unemployment is at an all-time low and wealth is higher than ever before. never among the black community.

However, current research show that support for Biden in the black community may be waning.

Tolulope Kevin Olasanoye, executive director of the Georgia Democratic Party, dismissed the vote, saying many are still not paying attention to the election.

“Real people aren’t focused on that. And when they finally do, we will be ready, prepared to make the contrast. Help them understand why it is so important for our democracy, for their children, for their grandchildren, to ensure that President Biden and Vice President Harris are re-elected,” Olasanoye said.

He said the party has been working for six months on building the infrastructure to be successful in November.

Georgia Democrats also believe one of their advantages this cycle is the 13,000 new Democrats they believe have moved to the state since 2020.

The campaign points out that former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley won nearly 78,000 votes in the Republican primary even after dropping out of the race, providing further evidence of a path to victory.

As in other swing states, the campaign hopes to reduce Trump’s margins among Republican and independent voters. Issues he focuses on include reproductive rights, health care and jobs.

Olasanoye also noted that “93% of the electoral coalition that helped elect President Biden and Vice President Harris in 2020 returned to vote in 2022″ and will do so once again with the appropriate efforts on the ground.

There are other obstacles, including several passed bills that Democrats say aim to suppress voters. They include making it easier to remove voters from the rolls and making it easier to send massive election challenges of any kind.

To help counter this, Georgia Democrats say they have created a broad and robust voter protection program.

“Don’t exclude us… a lot of people excluded us here in 2020. … I have a lot of confidence that the coalition is here to be able to do that. But we have work to do,” Olasanoye said.

The Trump campaign

Given the polls in the state, the Trump campaign and the RNC appear confident, but not so much that they will ignore the state.

The Georgia Republican Party headquarters in Atlanta is being used by the Trump campaign and the RNC.

According to an RNC spokesperson, there are a dozen local offices across the state with plans to open more. Locations will include Atlanta, Columbus, Savannah, Augusta and Gwinnett County.

Georgia Republican Party Chairman Josh McKoon believes this is largely an election focused on expelling the Republican base.

“I think when you look at where these offices are opening, it’s very consistent with making sure we’re where we need to be to appeal to base Republican voters across Georgia.”

McKoon also believes this year offers a real opportunity “to make statistically significant gains in terms of black male voters.”

He said for Biden to win Georgia, he needs a huge block vote from the black community, more than 90%, as well as some softness for Trump in Republican suburban areas, something he doesn’t believe is happening.

According to an RNC spokesperson, the RNC has launched a first-of-its-kind “Election Integrity Department” in states like Georgia and is conducting weekly election integrity training for election observers in all swing states.

They are also helping local election administrators staff election districts with poll workers.

On the issues, RNC spokeswoman Anna Kelly said that “American voters are interested in President Trump’s agenda to curb inflation, reduce costs, [and] protect the open southern border.”

In a change from previous cycles, McKoon said they are encouraging Republican voters to vote early rather than waiting until Election Day.

And as evidence of Republican voters’ interest in the election, he pointed to the primaries, saying, “Georgia Republicans beat Democrats early in the primaries. … We beat them by about 80,000 votes in terms of primary turnout.”

To help voters change their habits, he said they contacted about 150,000 voters to encourage them to vote early rather than on election day.

When someone votes early, it allows the party to focus resources on other voters. Early voting is something Democrats have done successfully in the past and continue to encourage.

In response to Democrats’ belief that an increase in voter turnout will make a difference, McKoon pointed to an election last month for the state Supreme Court and said: “John Barrow ran as a Democrat, ran on abortion and [said]‘I will restore women’s reproductive rights’ and that whole playbook, and it was defeated by about 80,000 votes.”

Overall, McKoon believes they have a slight advantage, but they have to work hard to maximize it, saying, “We hope that when we do that, on November 5th, President Trump will win our 16 electoral votes.”