Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia fight prediction, odds, undercard, start time, expert picks, live stream

Despite all the extracurricular activities that dominated fight week, the weather report for Saturday’s All-Mexico showdown in Las Vegas between Canelo Alvarez and Jaime Munguia remains sunny with a high likelihood of excitement.

Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs) will defend his undisputed super middleweight championship in the main event of a PBC on Prime Video pay-per-view card (8pm ET; simulcast on DAZN PPV) from T-Mobile Arena against the strong Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs). The Cinco de Mayo weekend clash represents the first time Alvarez will face a compatriot since his 2017 defeat of Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

Although Alvarez remains a 5-to-1 betting favorite due to his advantages in experience and skill, expectations remain high that a competitive shootout is ahead of us given that Munguia, the 27-year-old Tijuana native who is coached by Hall of Famer Freddie Roach, fights in the classic Mexican style full of action.

Both Alvarez and Munguia have been nothing but cordial and respectful towards each other at all times. The relationship between Alvarez and his former promoter, Golden Boy’s Oscar De La Hoya, who is Munguia’s co-promoter, couldn’t be any different, however.

De La Hoya, who accused Alvarez of trying to ban him from promotional events, severely altered the fight week narrative at Wednesday’s press conference by launching into a pre-written rant aimed at his former fighter. Things got so heated on the dais that the normally polite Alvarez needed to be restrained by security of attacking De La Hoya after the two spread dirty laundry between them.

Asked about the drama between his promoter and opponent on Thursday, all Munguia could do was laugh.

“It’s not my problem,” Munguia told CBS Sports. “I’m calm and very calm now. Whatever happened between them, it’s not my problem. I was laughing.”

Alvarez, however, maintained a much more serious demeanor when asked whether De La Hoya’s premeditated attempt at mental warfare had become a distraction.

“I respect all people, but I always say that for every action there is a reaction. I’m a fighter and things happen,” Alvarez told CBS Sports. “From Oscar, you can expect something like this. He just throws shit [out] from his mouth. He doesn’t know anything about promoting the fighter or caring about his fighter.

“[Golden Boy] always leaves his fighters behind when they need him on the biggest stage. He abandons his fighters and doesn’t care about them. Attention is [supposed] be for Munguia, but [De La Hoya] does not care. He just wants attention. But nothing about him surprises me.”

While Munguia has always been seen as a potential long-term opponent for Alvarez, ever since he arrived on the global stage in 2019 by knocking out Sadam Ali to claim the 154-pound title at just 21 years old, it took until the last 12 months for him to actually win the coveted opportunity.

Last June, Munguia survived a war with former title challenger Sergiy Derevyanchenko to win a close decision despite being injured several times. But after Munguia’s longtime coach, Erik Morales, decided to leave his corner to pursue his political aspirations in Tijuana, Munguia moved his camp to Los Angeles under Roach’s tutelage and the immediate impact was felt in their first collaboration.

Munguia defeated tough contender John Ryder in January, dropping him four times en route to a ninth-round TKO. Considering it was the same Ryder who had gone 12 tough rounds with Alvarez six months earlier, the result was seen as the culmination of Munguia’s maturity and evolution.

That’s why Alvarez was willing to break his previous stance of no longer wanting to fight other Mexicans, even though the public’s appetite seemed much more focused on the idea of ​​him fighting two-time champion David Benavidez.

“It’s going to be a good fight, for sure. [Munguia’s] style, it will be great. But I don’t know for how many rounds,” said Alvarez. “I have more experience, I’m stronger, I have more talent – ​​a lot of things. I respect Jaime and I am proud of what we are doing for the Mexican community. I’m proud of that, but we didn’t come here to play. I come here to do my job, which is to win.

“I think he’s a good fighter, he throws a lot of punches and he’s strong. They already beat him and he handled it well, but Canelo is different and he will experience something different on Saturday night. “

After Alvarez, 33, made history by winning all four 168-pound titles in an 11-month span in 2021, he experienced an unusual slump in his next three fights. Alvarez, whose training was constantly interrupted by a persistent hand problem, looked somewhat human as he lost to 2022 light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol before drab decision wins over Gennadiy Golovkin (in his trilogy) and Ryder.

To Alvarez’s credit, just as rumors began to swirl that the wear and tear of a 19-year professional career was catching up with him, it seemed resurgent last September when he dominated a reluctant Jermell Charlo for 12 rounds to re-establish himself as a pound-for-pound threat. lb.

Munguia knows he will need to do his best to defeat his legendary opponent, but he has shown no lack of confidence that he is the right man for the job.

“[Alvarez] He is a very experienced, very complete fighter,” said Munguia. “I can’t be distracted for even a second inside the ring. I have to be on edge and sharp, but in the end, I know I have to win and I know I can win. As long as I’m smart and perceptive, everything will be fine.

“I have a lot of aces up my sleeve. There are a lot of things I can do inside the ring that you haven’t seen yet and I’m going to use them on Saturday and not even Canelo knows about them yet.”

Let’s take a closer look at the odds for each main card fight before we get to an expert main event prediction and pick below.

Fight card, odds

Viewing information

• Date: may 4th
• Location: T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas
• Start time: 8 p.m. ET
• How to watch: PBC on Prime Video PPV, DAZN PPV and PPV.com | Price: $89.99

Prediction

While the relationship with Roach seemed to take Munguia’s game to a whole new level last time, it’s hard to argue with Alvarez’s stance that fighting him is simply different. Many entered the ring against him with big plans only to be disciplined out of their offensive game plan early by Alvarez’s power and precise aim as an elite counterpuncher.

Add in the fact that Alvarez has never crashed as a professional and has only been seriously injured (on a visual level) just once against José Miguel Cotto in 2010 and one can see the uphill battle Munguia has ahead of him despite being the bigger of the two .

Munguia will need to attack Alvarez from the start, coming in and trying to spam and corner his opponent with relentless pursuit. He has shown a willingness to take heavy punishment in the past and tends to remain dangerous even when injured. But the activity remains its biggest threat to survival.

Once Alvarez can slow down the pace of a fight, turning it into a tight chess match, the end is usually near for his opponent. Munguia will need to act like a bigger fighter and try to use his size to lean on and wear down Alvarez if he hopes to win approval from the same Las Vegas judges who have historically favored the high efficiency of Alvarez’s cleaner, harder punches.

Munguia’s entire career has culminated in this moment and the expectation remains that he will be willing to risk defeat by knockout to give himself the best chance of pulling off the comeback. But the fact that he leaves himself so open to being fought cleanly simply isn’t sustainable against a boxer of Alvarez’s skill.

Whether or not Alvarez can finish the job with a spectacular finish likely depends on how much punishment Munguia can take.

Pick: Alvarez via UD12

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