Alexander Brown
The mass exodus of once-vaunted freshmen was one of the main tones of college basketball 2024 transfer portal cycle. Forty-eight of the top 61 recruits in the class of 2023 is expected to return to the college ranks next season. More than half (25 of 48) are in the 2024 transfer portal.
The topsy-turvy training carousel has fingerprints all over it.
When John Calipari fled Kentucky for Arkansas, former five-stars like Aaron Bradshaw and DJ Wagner hit the transfer portal. Stanford released Jerod Haase after a frustrating 14-18 season that opened the door for Kanaan Carlyle and Andrej Stojakovic to become free agents. Indiana picked up Carlyle while Stojakovic avoided Kentucky and UNC to drive 41 miles north to Cal. The former McDonald’s All-American will have the chance to be Mark Madsen’s next big star.
Coaching changes at Ohio State, USC, Arkansas and Oklahoma State were certainly factors.
In total, 13 of the top 25 players in the class of 2023 will transfer following a coaching change – as is their justified prerogative. Illinois’ Amani Hansberry is technically the 14th to leave due to a coaching change. Illinois assistant Chester Frazier was Hansberry’s primary recruiter. When Frazier left for West Virginia, Hansberry was in Frazier’s sidecar.
Recruits awarded in 2023 in the 2024 portal cycle:
- #5 Aaron Bradshaw from Kentucky to Ohio State (coaching change)
- No. 6 DJ Wagner of Kentucky (coaching change)
- #13 Omaha Biliew from Iowa State to Wake Forest
- #16 Aden Holloway, Auburn to Alabama
- #17 TJ Power, Duke to Virginia
- No. 19 Andrej Stojakovic from Stanford to California (coaching change)
- #22 Sean Stewart from Duke to Ohio State
- #25 Dennis Evans from Louisville to Grand Canyon (coaching change)
- #28 Bronny James (coaching change)
- #29 Baye Fall from Arkansas to Kansas State (coaching change)
- #36 Berke Buyuktuncel from UCLA
- #38 Eric Dailey from Oklahoma State to UCLA (coaching change)
- #39 Mikey Williams, from Memphis to UCF
- #41 Miro Little of Baylor
- #43 Ilane Fibleuil of UCLA
- #45 Brandon Garrison from Oklahoma State to Kentucky (coaching change)
- #47 Garwey Dual, from Providence
- #51 Marcus Adams of BYU
- #53 Wesley Yates (coaching change)
- #55 Carey Booth, Notre Dame to Illinois
- #57 Arrinten Page from USC to Cincinnati (coaching change)
- #58 Layden Blocker from Arkansas (coaching change)
- #59 Kanaan Carlyle from Stanford to Indiana (coaching change)
- #60 Scotty Middleton from Ohio State to Seton Hall (coaching change)
- No. 61 Amani Hansberryfrom Illinois to West Virginia (assistant coach change)
MORE: Dissecting Duke’s mass transfer portal exodus
It’s a shocking change, but it didn’t just start in this cycle. Only 28 of the top 61 recruits in the 2022 recruiting class returned to the college ranks for their sophomore seasons. Sixteen of the 28 entered the portal, headlined by five-stars Kel’el Ware (Oregon to Indiana), Arterio Morris (Texas to Kansas) and JJ Starling (Notre Dame to Syracuse).
It didn’t used to be like this.
Two years ago, 38 of the top 61 recruits in the 2021 class returned for their sophomore seasons. Only six made it through the portal: Emoni Bates, Tyrese Hunter, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Efton Reid, Jaylon Tyson and Frankie Collins.
Times are changing.
Only six of the top 61 recruits in the 2021 class are still with the program they signed with out of high school: UConn’s Samson Johnson, Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn, Maryland’s Julian Reese, Baylor’s Langston Love, Texas’ Manny Obaseki A&M and Oregon’s Nate Bittle.
Former prized 2022 recruits like Duke’s Mark Mitchell and Texas’ Dillon Mitchell stayed at their respective schools for two years but won’t be there for a third. The two (unrelated) Mitchell boys are in the portal. Mark will play at Mizzou in 2024-25. Dillon hasn’t made a decision yet.
Fifty of the top 61 2022 recruits did not make it to their junior seasons without turning pro or accessing the portal. The Lonely 11? Tyrese Proctor of Duke, Seth Trimble of UNC, Terrance Arceneaux of Houston, Henri Veesaar of Arizona, Malik Reneau of Indiana, Tyrell Ward of LSU, Isaac McKneely of Virginia, Bruce Thornton of Ohio State, Ty Rodgers of Illinois, Miles Byrd of San Diego State and Michigan State big man Jaxon Kohler.
Maybe this will all stabilize a bit when COVID-year seniors come out of the mix after the current cycle. The raw number of transfers will decline in the cycles to come without the 400+ transfers using the portal to find a place to play another year.
But it doesn’t seem like it. This is big-boy basketball, with year-long roster turnovers happening quickly.
Some Duke’s Honored 2023 Freshmen were blocked by the entrance Cooper Flagg and Jon Scheyer wanted to add some veterans from the transfer portal, so they opted to exit stage left. It was a big deal when Iowa State landed Biliew, the highest-rated recruit in program history during the Internet era. But he wasn’t ready to play his freshman year. The raucous Iowa State faithful only managed to see 15 buckets from him, and now Biliew is headed to Wake Forest looking for more guaranteed minutes. Iowa State has reloaded and has a top-10 list. Even if he stayed, Biliew’s path to playing at Iowa State would have been cloudy.
Exiting can be good for both parties in these transactions.
Perhaps this will brighten up an impressive offseason for Oregon. Dana Altman kept not one, not two, but all three gems from his 2023 top-10 recruiting class. Jackson Shelstad, Mookie Cook and Kwame Evans Jr. will have a major say in how Oregon fares in the new-look Big Ten.
RELATED: Transfer portal deadline retention winners and losers
UNC’s Elliot Cadeau and Michigan State’s Xavier Booker could be the outliers moving forward. The two five-star freshmen arrived with high expectations and didn’t live up to them their first year. Booker struggled to get to the court, and Cadeau was carted off the court in the NCAA Tournament loss to Alabama. UNC updated its roster with the addition of Cade Tyson, but did not recruit Cadeau, so he opted to stay. Michigan State filled a need with Nebraska-Omaha transfer Frankie Fidler but didn’t recruit Booker, so he stayed. Both Cadeau and Booker will have every opportunity to be a starter next season.
Staying can be good for both parties in these transactions.
But it’s a sign of the times when less than 10% of 2021’s top 61 recruits make it to their senior season, only 18% of 2022’s top 61 recruits make it to their junior season, and only 37% of 2023’s top 61 recruits make it to their junior season. season at their respective clubs.
