Alexander Brown
The 2024-25 college basketball season is just over six months away, but it’s never too early to make projections. John Calipari’s decision to leave his position at Kentucky for the vacant position at Arkansas last month created a ripple effect across the sport that resulted in Mark Pope returning to his alma mater after spending five seasons at BYU.
Let’s say, just for fun, we convinced the two teams to meet somewhere in the middle for a scrimmage this month (Poplar Bluff, anyone?). Of course, they will face each other at a time and place to be determined during SEC play in 2024-25, but we want answers now. Who would be the favorite in one of the most anticipated games of the season in college basketball? Who would win?
Arkansas and Kentucky will field lineups that will be drastically different from the previous season. Since Calipari’s arrival at Arkansas, he has helped land five former Kentucky prospects (Karter Knox, Zvonimir Ivišić, Boogie Fland, Adou Theiro and Billy Richmond) to pair with former Tennessee big man Jonas Aidoo and FAU star guard Johnell Davis.
Pope is building a roster that doesn’t feature any returning scholarship players. His first commitment in the transfer portal came from freshman guard Collin Chandler, who spent the last two years on a Mormon mission. Chandler was Pope’s highest-rated signee (No. 33 overall) during his tenure at BYU.
Kentucky Landed High-Level Commitments from Dayton shooter Koby Brea, West Virginia guard Kerr Kriisa, San Diego State guard Lamont Butler and Oklahoma guard Otega Oweh. All four players project to be impact players as Kentucky enters a new era.
While both teams are expected to add more players through the transfer portal in the coming weeks, this is the case for each team if the first meeting takes place today with the current rosters.
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Why Kentucky would win
Kentucky Projected Starting Lineup
Banking options: G Lamont Butler, C Brandon Garrison and G Collin Chandler
The Wildcats case: The biggest flaw of Kentucky’s 2023-24 roster has been the defense. The Wildcats finished with the No. 334 scoring defense (79.7 ppg), which ranked fourth-worst among all Power Six teams. Ironically, Arkansas’ defense was one of the units that ranked worse than Kentucky’s (79.8 ppg). While both lineups look different, Kentucky has done more this offseason to improve the defense.
Williams and Butler are standout defenders at their respective positions. Brea is one of the best shooters in college basketball, and Kriisa led the Pac-12 in assists while at Arizona during the 2022-23 season. Last season’s Kentucky team finished second in offense (89 ppg) and made 9.9 3-pointers per game, good enough for 16th. Under Pope, BYU finished third in 3-point shooting (11.1) and 41% of its total points came from distance, by KenPom.com. BYU ranked 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency and finished 22nd in offense (81.4 ppg).
Kentucky currently has more bench depth than Arkansas. You could argue that Butler should start over Kriisa, but the latter is one of the best pure passers in the country, which will help facilitate Pope’s offensive system, which worked wonders at BYU.
Chandler might be the biggest wildcard of the entire group. He has yet to play a minute of college basketball and was a highly touted recruit in the 2022 cycle. Arkansas has a talent advantage (like most Calipari-led teams) when facing another opponent in non-conference or SEC play. The combination of Kentucky’s improved defense and new offensive system is why they would win this game today. And for what it’s worth, I’d set the line at Kentucky at 2.5 points. -Cameron Salerno
EUATSI
Why Arkansas would win
Arkansas Projected Starting Lineup:
- G: Boogie Fland
- G: Nelly Davis
- G/F: Karter Knox
- F: Adou Theiro
- W: Jonas Aidoo
Banking options: C Zvonimir Ivišić and G Billy Richmond
The case of the Razorbacks: Arkansas’ sophisticated talent has a chance to make John Calipari’s first season a very, very good one. If you needed the highest-rated guard in the transfer portal, FAU star Johnell ‘Nelly’ Davis fit the bill. If you needed the most complete big man, Tennessee transfer Jonas Aidoo was it.
Arkansas got them both.
Aidoo’s defensive versatility is legitimate. It can protect the rim with a high clip. Tennessee’s opponents shot just 53% at the rim when Aidoo was on the floor. But he can protect ball screens in a variety of ways, and offensively, his all-around game is perfectly suited to modern hoops. He has a delicate touch in the paint, makes good decisions in 4-on-3 scenarios and when his engine is revving, Aidoo can be the best center on any floor.
Kentucky transfer Adou Thiero is an excellent wing who can create advantages on the fly. He comes down in a hurry and provides a lot of rim pressure.
Pound for pound, Arkansas’ talent is ahead of Kentucky’s at this stage of the offseason and I would have the Razorbacks as the favorite. Will this remain intact until November? That remains to be seen. Talent doesn’t always win games, but it sure doesn’t hurt. How vaunted youngsters like Karter Knox, Boogie Fland, Zvonimir Ivisic and Billy Richmond integrate into the mix with Arkansas’ gateway stars will make or break the Hogs’ ceiling.
Davis and Aidoo would certainly be the two best players on the field in a possible duel between Arkansas and Kentucky, and Thiero wouldn’t be far behind this top duo. -Isaac Trotter
