College football transfer portal: Are Group of Five programs actually being raided by power conferences?

In the new world of recruitment without transfer restrictions and NIL, there is a harsh reality for Group of Five teams today. When a Group of Five coach walks into a recruit’s school or home, he is fully aware that if he can get that recruit to commit, and if that recruit becomes a top player, there is a good chance that he will soon will lose to a Power Four. school.

In the 2024 transfer cycle, 247Sports has five Group of Five players ranked in the top 75 overall, and all five transferred to Power Four schools:

The perception is that Group of Five schools are being raided every offseason by Power Four conferences and that their rosters are being left empty because of the transfer portal. Perception isn’t always reality, though, so we dug deeper into the transfer numbers to see if that’s actually the case across the Group of Five conferences.

In the previous transfer window, Group of Five schools lost 239 players to Power Four programs. That equates to about four players for each Group of Five program. Sixty of the 62 Group of Five programs lost at least one transfer to a Power Four school this year, with Army and Sam Houston State being the only exceptions. New Mexico State, James Madison and San Diego State were hit hardest after losing at least 10 transfers to Power Four schools.

Schools that lost the most transfers to the Power Four

• State of New Mexico – 13
• James Madison – 12
• San Diego State – 10
• Ohio – 9
• Memphis – 8

Typically, all the talk is about Group of Five schools losing their top talent to power conferences, but it also works both ways. So far, 325 power conference players have transferred to Group of Five schools, meaning Group of Five schools have added 86 more power conference players than they lost. Schools like Charlotte, North Texas, Marshall, East Carolina and Nevada transferred the most from the Power Four this cycle.

Schools That Earned the Most Power Four Transfers

• Carlota – 16
• North Texas – 16
• Marshall – 15
• Nevada – 14
• East Carolina – 13

Seeing as Group of Five and Power Four transfers are more of a two-way street than most realize, the reality is that the transfer portal to Group of Five programs is actually more of a quality situation versus quantity. They’re losing a lot of key players to power conference schools, but they’re also adding even more power conference players to their own rosters and giving guys who were stuck on the lower end of the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC the chance to play. In fact, the only Group of Five conference that lost more transfers to Power Four schools than it gained was Conference USA (-14).

2024 Group of Five transfers additions and subtractions

• Input power four players: 325
• Players lost to Power Four schools: 239
• Difference: +86

The numbers don’t lie, and while every circumstance is different — especially when a player is moving down a level — there are certainly opportunities for Group of Five schools to take former power conference players and give them playing time or more. role they weren’t getting before. An example would be Luke McCaffrey, who appeared in 11 games and started two games as Nebraska’s quarterback in 2019 and 2020 in the Big Ten. Fast forward three years after a transfer to Rice, a position change to wide receiver and 13 receiving touchdowns in 2023, and McCaffrey was selected in the third round of the NFL Draft by the Washington Commanders.

The hit rate for former power conference players who transfer to Group of Five schools and then get drafted is extremely low, but there are success stories where players were given a new opportunity to play at that level and were successful. Running back Peny Boone had 258 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two seasons at Maryland before transferring to Toledo, where he was eighth in the FBS with 1,400 rushing yards and 16 total touchdowns in 2023. He went from Big Ten backup to MAC Offensive Player of the Year Now, Boone has been moved back to the Power Four this offseason and will look to lead UCF’s rushing attack in 2024.

While the perception that Group of Five schools are being raided by power conferences for their top talent is true, the reality is that Group of Five programs also have a chance to build their rosters with players from power conferences. power. Group of Five coaches know that the next McCaffrey or Boone just committed to a Power Four school and that it’s only a matter of time before they have the chance to change someone’s career trajectory because of the portal.