Anthony Wilson
The 2024 Big Ten football season will be unlike any other in the conference’s rich history, welcoming a West Coast contingent that expands the league’s membership to 18 teams.
The additions of USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington not only filled the schedule with even more high-quality matchups, but also created a new backdrop for the Big Ten title race. When the first Big Ten Championship Game was held in 2011, the conference featured 12 teams divided into “Legends” and “Leaders” divisions. The 2014 expansion that brought Maryland and Rutgers triggered a reorganization into more geographically focused East and West divisions. Now, divisions have been set aside and, starting in 2024, the title race will be decided by conference winning percentage and tiebreakers, with all 18 teams competing for two spots.
It was announced earlier this week that the inaugural Big Ten Championship game of the 18-team era will be broadcast on CBS and Paramount+. This has sparked conversations about what the game, and more specifically the matchup, will be like when we get to the first Saturday in December. We decided to break it down by predicting the five most likely Big Ten Championship Game matchups for 2024.
Reaching the Big Ten title game for the fourth consecutive season would be a huge statement for Michigan following coach Jim Harbaugh’s loss and 13 NFL Draft picks from last year’s national title team. In this specific scenario, it would also likely mean a fourth straight win against Ohio State. This comes with its own set of “what ifs” and what-if drama, especially since an Oregon appearance in the title game likely means both teams here would have beaten the Buckeyes on their way to Indianapolis. Coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks have the lineup to make a splash in the Big Ten in 2024; what better way to do that than to get to the title game and face the defending champions?
The Ducks have the second-best odds to win the Big Ten, so it’s a clear no-brainer to include them in several potential matchups. But following his path reveals a tumultuous November, with the title race hanging in the balance almost every week. Oregon faces Michigan (Nov. 2) and Wisconsin (Nov. 16) on the road in the final four weeks before the regular season finale at home against rival Washington (Nov. 30). Ohio State is also on Oregon’s schedule, but Penn State is not. The Nittany Lions, in fact, have a chance to really emerge in Drew Allar’s second year as the full-time starting quarterback, maintaining a high level of talent on the roster and facing a schedule that doesn’t include Michigan or Oregon. A key game against Ohio State on Nov. 2 would likely open the door when it comes to securing the tiebreaker, but the capper is a trip to Wisconsin the week before and a home date against Washington the week after.
3. Ohio State vs. Michigan
A common thread in our first two hypothetical matchups is the need to beat Ohio State to reach the Big Ten title game. The reason these scenarios rank 4th and 5th and not in the top three is that it seems unlikely that Ohio State will lose every game against another conference title contender. Will the Buckeyes lose on a schedule that includes Oregon, Penn State and Michigan? It’s possible, if not likely, that they’ll stumble somewhere along the way. But losing all three seems out of the question, so now we’re looking at different ways to get rematches of regular season games involving the Buckeyes.
The first is “The Game, Part 2”: a scenario in which Ohio State and Michigan enter their rivalry game undefeated in the conference and ahead of the rest of the teams in the standings. This may seem crazy given the conference’s depth, but Ohio State and Michigan entered their rivalry game with undefeated conference records in each of the last two seasons, and in the last three years, they have had just one combined loss to a team outside of the conference. rivalry (Michigan at Michigan State in 2021). If the Big Ten had already chosen title game participants based on winning percentage, an Ohio State-Michigan rematch would have been the matchup in each of the last three years.
2. Ohio State vs. Penn State
A rematch between Ohio State and Penn State would bring a little less rivalry drama but more intrigue; The two teams will play in Happy Valley on November 2nd before, in this case, facing each other in Indianapolis on December 7th. What makes this rematch scenario seem plausible is the fact that both teams have a path to victory after the first game. , so that the loser on November 2 can bounce back and – with some help elsewhere – climb back into the top two spots in the Big Ten standings. If, for example, Penn State defeats Ohio State in the regular season meeting, the Buckeyes would have a series of games in which they would be heavy favorites (Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana) before hosting rival Michigan in the regular season. final that could have important implications for the tiebreaker. The Nittany Lions don’t have as many heavy hitters late in the schedule for playoff games, but a roster of Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland should be manageable for a group that expects to be among the top 10 teams in the country entering the season.
1. Ohio State vs. Oregon
It seems oversimplifying picking the top two teams on the odds board for the Big Ten Championship Game, but we’re also talking about two of the four most loaded rosters in the entire country. The Buckeyes have more star power at the top thanks to the transfer portal additions of players like Caleb Downs, Quinshon Judkins and Will Howard, but also because of potential 2024 NFL Draft picks (JT Tuimoloau, Denzel Burke, Jack Sawyer, TreVeyon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka) decided to return for another year in Columbus.
But Oregon also has future advantages. Lanning built the roster with a combination of high-level high school recruiting and transfer portal additions to address needs and add depth. The Ducks don’t have many holes or areas of concern on paper, so 2024 is the time for this program to take the next step. Oregon and Ohio State will meet in the regular season on Oct. 12 in Eugene, Oregon, and that could very well be the tipping point for the entire Big Ten title race. Both teams still have challenging games on the schedule — they both play Michigan, for example — but in the case of Ohio State and Oregon, they have the rosters to be able to run the table even in the event of a midseason loss.
