2024 Big Ten championship odds, picks: Ohio State is the favorite but Michigan, newcomer USC provide value

Unlike the Big 12, which Shehan Jeyarajah of CBS Sports correctly described as “wide open“The Big Ten has typically been a league dominated by one or two programs at a time. That’s not to say there aren’t several good teams in the Big Ten in any given season, but for most of its history you won’t have to go through Michigan or Ohio State when trying to figure out who will win.

With the league expanding to 18 (eighteen!) schools in 2024, perhaps we will see this change in the future. For this season, however, don’t expect much change. When I wrote about the preseason odds for last season’s Big Ten, I said Michigan, the league favorite, was the best bet on the board. Michigan won the conference and then the national title. Despite this, he is not the favorite to enter 2024 – nor should he be, with all the changes he has undergone.

This year’s favorite – prepare to be shocked – is Ohio State. Newcomer Oregon follows the Buckeyes, then Penn State, and finally, with the fourth best odds, you’ll find the defending national champions. Michigan having the fourth-best odds is a testament to how deep the Big Ten’s new look is, but you don’t want to scroll too far down the list looking for a good bet.

Here are the Big Ten title odds for all 18 (EIGHT. ADOLESCENT.) teams and some choices to consider.

Best bet – Ohio State (+160): This is obvious to me, and it should be to you if you read the introduction to this piece. Ohio State has failed to win the Big Ten for three straight seasons and just saw Michigan win a national championship. In response, the Buckeyes went all-in this year. The defense was already in excellent shape, having prevented many key players from going to the NFL and retired world safety Caleb Downs from Alabama. The offense added Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss to an already crowded running back room. Quarterback Will Howard came from Kansas State, and although he is the likely starter, the Buckeyes have so many good options that he has yet to be named a starter.

The QB situation is the only thing that gives me slight pause. Still, even if I still don’t have complete confidence in the talent available, head coach Ryan Day and the offensive staff have accumulated enough cred over the years that there’s a reasonable guess as to what we’ll get. Honestly, the only other team I considered the best bet was Oregon, but I didn’t consider the Ducks for long. That’s not to say they can’t win the Big Ten in their first season, because they can. They have an experienced quarterback and are strong at the line of scrimmage, but they are also at a disadvantage because they have to learn a whole new league.

Worst bet – Penn State (+450): There are reasons to like the Nittany Lions, and labeling them the “Worst Bet” doesn’t mean I don’t think they can win the league. I just don’t like their price. The argument for Penn State is that it has a talented defense and in a league without a well-defined alpha QB, Drew Allar could emerge as that guy. New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has done wonderful things at Kansas and Buffalo, but he’s new and the Nittany Lions are replacing some key players from last year’s team. There are also serious questions about the receiver’s talent and it’s hard to win at an elite level in the sport these days without a nightmare-inducing stud.

Value Pick – Michigan (+525): It’s rare that we get the chance to bet the three-time national champion and three-time conference champion at a price like this, so let’s take advantage while we can. To be clear, I don’t expect Michigan to win the Big Ten this season, but at +525, we only have to believe there’s a 16% chance of that happening. This isn’t too far-fetched. There has been a lot of talk about what Michigan lost, but the Wolverines have a lot coming back and will still have one of the best defenses in the country. The QB spot is a giant shrug emoji at the moment, but although I think JJ McCarthy was extremely underrated (NFL teams seemed to agree with me), the truth is that Michigan’s offense can survive without a top-tier QB. It’s not crazy to think that this team can win the championship by scoring just 13 points per game.

Shot in the Dark – USC (+1600): Over the years, the formula for finding Big Ten betting odds has been simple: Pick the Big Ten West team that you believed could make it to the Big Ten Championship Game and maybe something crazy would happen. Last year, I said take Iowa at +800, and the Hawkeyes made it to Indianapolis before typically being eliminated by Michigan. This year, there is no more Big Ten West, but there are new Big Ten West teams.

There is no long shot in this league, but if forced to pick one, USC is the best option. The Trojans are coming off a horrible season in which they failed to capitalize on their Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 seed. NFL Draft pick, Caleb Williams. He’s not easy to replace, but coach Lincoln Riley deserves the benefit of the doubt when putting together an offense. The question is what will the defense be like? It was horrible last season, but Riley overhauled his entire defensive staff. It’s highly unlikely that the Trojans’ defense will turn into an elite unit in one season, but if the offense can score points at the same rate that Riley teams typically do, the defense doesn’t need to be elite to make this team dangerous.