2024 ACC championship odds, picks: Florida State favorite to repeat but Clemson, Miami are in the mix

If you thought the additions of Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC in 2013 seemed strange, wait until the start of the 2024 season. As a new round of realignment takes place, the Atlantic The Coast Conference is welcoming new members SMU (Dallas, Texas), Cal (Berkeley, Calif.) and Stanford (Palo Alto, Calif.) as the league grows to 17 teams.

A year ago, the western boundary for an ACC conference game was Louisville, which is in the Eastern time zone. This year, six teams from the league’s old guard will be forced to make cross-country trips to play Cal or Stanford in conference games three time zones away.

Then there is SMU. While Cal and Stanford are at least neighbors in the ACC’s new West Coast block, the Mustangs are on an island in the Lone Star State. SMU is also one of the most difficult teams in the league to project. After an 11-3 season (9-0 AAC), third-year head coach Rhett Lashlee is leading his team into their new league with momentum. However, increased competition will bring challenges for a program that will host games in Nevada, Kentucky, California, North Carolina and Virginia. So, as the season approaches, what can the odds teach us about the 2024 ACC football season?

Here’s a breakdown of the full title odds sheet and some plays to consider as the season approaches.

Best bet – Miami (+430): Miami doesn’t play Clemson or NC State, and the Hurricanes host Florida State at home. They also play two of the three ACC schools with first-year coaches at Duke (Manny Diaz) and Syracuse (Fran Brown). With continuity in the coordinator positions and the No. 10 transfer class in the country, the ‘Canes are poised for a big jump in coach Mario Cristobal’s third season. That potential increase relies heavily on the right arm of Washington State transfer quarterback Cam Ward, who has thrown 48 touchdowns to just 16 interceptions while approaching 7,000 yards in two seasons with the Cougars. Reinforcements also arrived on the defensive front to replenish a unit led by All-ACC returners Francisco Mauigoa and Rueben Bain Jr.

Worst bet – Clemson (+350): Betting on Clemson requires a lot of faith in coach Dabo Swinney’s contrarian approach to roster management. The Tigers did not accept a single transfer, leaving them vulnerable to attrition and aggressively betting on internal development. If starting quarterback Cade Klubnik goes down, the Tigers will likely have to turn to Christopher Vizzina. The redshirt freshman took nine total snaps last season after being rated as a four-star prospect in the class of 2023. Even if Klubnik remains 100% healthy, the Tigers’ lack of explosive receivers is cause for concern. Two of the last three ACC title games have been played without Clemson, and there is enough parity in the league to cast reasonable doubt on whether the Tigers will make it to Charlotte in 2024.

Value Selection – NC State (+600): Now in its 12th year, head coach Dave Doeren has established his program as one of the league’s most consistent winners. The Wolfpack has finished 6-2 in league play in two of the last three seasons and appears ready for the next step. As they travel to Clemson on September 21, the schedule is manageable as they miss Florida State and Miami. With Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall taking over the quarterback role after leading the Chanticleers through their best era, NC State is a clear contender for the ACC title.

Long Shot – SMU (+1800): Last season, SMU outpaced the AAC with nine straight wins between late September and early December, building momentum heading into this year’s transition. The Mustangs ranked fourth among ACC schools in ESPN SP+ Ratings coming out of spring training. They don’t play Clemson or NC State and have three weeks off thanks to a Week 0 game. The road trip will be tough, but if Lashlee’s group can separate itself from Florida State and Louisville to start league play, it will be well-positioned to thrive against a manageable slate of conference opponents during the second half of the season.