2024 Group of Five odds, picks: Memphis, Liberty could exceed expectations, Ohio hit hard by transfer portal

All week we’ve been running through the four power conferences with picks to win, value bets, long shots and bets to avoid when it comes to future conference titles. And while conference title odds aren’t yet available for the Group of Five conferences at many of the most popular sportsbooks, what we do have is the opportunity to identify some preseason picks from across the AAC, Conference USA, MAC , Mountain West and Sunbelt.

A popular theme you’ll notice throughout these picks has to do with the impact of the transfer portal on Group of Five teams. The narrative that these schools are picked by power conference schools has proven to be somewhat misleading, as some of the G5 schools with the most portal exits this off-season were also programs that underwent a coaching change. Portal leaving in a coaching transition is something that not even Alabama was able to avoid, so perhaps the idea that every non-power conference team is on the verge of losing all of its best players is a bit of a stretch.

But there is some truth to the notion that the portal, or more specifically the current transfer rules that allow players to transfer as many times as they want without penalty, has harmed the ability of G5-level coaches to retain the talent they have developed. . The immediate effect of the impact of these new rules has allowed many college football programs to immediately respond to depth chart needs, but it has also created situations where coaches suddenly lose pieces that were a key part of the plan for the upcoming season with little to no warning. Monitoring this movement is essential to define expectations for 2024 and was applied in our choices below.

Memphis: Over 9.5 wins (+128)

An example of a program that has avoided the player-loss portal narrative is Memphis, which ranks 22nd nationally in Bill Connelly’s return production rankings after a 2023 campaign that saw the Tigers finish with 10 wins thanks to a of the Liberty Bowl against Iowa State. The non-conference schedule can’t be chalked up to four easy wins in 2024, as the slate includes a trip to Florida State in a matchup that pits Mike Norvell against his former program and Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield against his ex -boss.

Silverfield has established a level of consistency since taking over for Norvell that gives Memphis a high floor, but the high ceiling for fall is set by the program’s ability to keep starting quarterback Seth Henigan in the transfer portal. The 6-3 senior has started 37 games for the Tigers over the past three seasons and in 2023 ranks in the top five nationally in passing yards (3,883) and passing touchdowns (32).

When power conference programs were looking for quarterbacks who could help their team, Henigan was an easy prospect to identify, but his commitment to Memphis speaks volumes about the current team and what the team can accomplish in 2024.

Freedom: Over 10.5 wins (+100)

I’m already on record with a bold prediction that Liberty will not only win Conference USA, but also earn a bid to the College Football Playoff and proceed to the first Cinderella-style first-round upset of the 12-team era. So if I’m going to risk all of this, you can bet I’m feeling good about the fact that Jamey Chadwell’s group was able to finish with an 11-1 record or better.

Liberty, like Memphis, was able to keep its star quarterback after Kaidon Salter reached the transfer portal following the Fiesta Bowl loss to Oregon, only to withdraw and announce his return to the program a few days later. Salter was one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country last season, with 32 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing touchdowns and more than 1,000 rushing yards as the Flames knocked off most of the Conference USA competition on the way to a regular 13-0 – season record, a conference title and a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Liberty will once again play one of the most favorable schedules in the country and with New Mexico State their toughest CUSA competition last season and undergoing a coaching change, the Flames appear to be alone at the top of the league.

Ohio: Under 6.5 wins (-105)

Here we find what could be the prime example of how the portal can cut off the legs of a Group of Five team. Tim Albin has led Ohio to back-to-back 10-win seasons, a 13-3 record in MAC play the past two seasons and two bowl victories. The Bobcats have been one of the strongest and healthiest programs in the MAC for a long time, but the depth chart has been decimated this offseason.

The loss of quarterback Kurtis Rourke to Indiana will draw the most attention, but he was one of seven notable players to leave Ohio for a power conference team in the winter window. Then, after the Bobcats completed spring practice, there was another wave of players leaving for power conference teams that included as many as five projected starters.

So essentially, this is a team that lost more than a dozen powerhouse conference-quality players, and with these spring departures, there aren’t many options for finding replacements. The overall strength of the Ohio program could still lead the Bobcats to a bowl game, but I’m not ready to bet on much more than that.

New Mexico: Over 1.5 wins (-185)

Let’s ignore the price for a second and just focus on the principle. New Mexico football is indeed in a tough spot, failing to win more than three games in a single season since 2016. The Lobos are 5-32 in Mountain West play in that time, and many early power rankings have them among the bottom 5 to 10 teams in the entire FBS.

But the principle is that Bronco Mendenhall is a value-added coach who can exceed model expectations to the point where we think New Mexico can win more than one game in 2024. It won’t be easy, as the non-conference slate includes three powerhouse conference programs (at Arizona at Auburn, Washington State at home) and a top 10 2023 FCS team in the state of Montana. But Mendenhall has a career winning percentage of .625 and his worst season (2016 at Virginia) still included two wins.

The Lobos have a handful of power conference transfers joining the program and have only lost a few transfers to power conference schools, so if the Bronco can coach them to the Week Zero opener against Montana State and land at least one more ( rivalry game against New Mexico State possibly being the best chance), then this future profits.

Finally, a note on the price: buy because it will fluctuate and the market has lower numbers (-140) available that are not as interesting. Again, we follow the principles here and it’s up to you to find the best price.