Auburn, Iowa State among potential College Football Playoff Cinderella teams as field expands in 2024 season

O College football The playoff will be expanded to feature 12 teams this season. While increased access to more schools brings with it the promise of a Cinderella story and an unexpected title chase, reality will pour cold water on those hopes more often than not. The truth is that while more teams will make it to the CFP, the eventual champions will come from a familiar set of programs much more often than not. The parity we’re likely to see is the kind that makes it difficult to form a dynasty similar to Nick Saban’s at Alabama or Kirby Smart’s burgeoning one at Georgia.

If we look for Cinderella in this new era, she will be found in the regular season. They will be the team that exceeds preseason expectations to get a spot out of nowhere.

Since it’s June, I felt a twinge of excitement when the CFP announced its issuance schedule for 2024-25, I couldn’t imagine a better time to identify potential Cinderella stories for next season. I wanted to find the teams that, whether it was the perfect time for a veteran lineup, some breaks in the schedule, or just pure luck, could be the team of each of the Power Four conferences. The only parameter I established for eligibility was that the team had a preseason win total of 7.5 or less.

Many teams met the criteria, but in the end, these are the four that I feel are not only fit to be considered a Cinderella if they make it to the CFP, but also have a chance to step into that glass slipper.

ACC – Syracuse (total wins: 7)

I considered Pitt as another ACC possibility. While I have some apprehension about Syracuse in Fran Brown’s first season as head coach at any level, everything else seems to fall into place perfectly. The Orange are coming off a 6-7 season and have been to a bowl game in each of the last two years. While the Dino Babers era has ebbed and flowed (10 wins in 2018, one in 2020), the team has found its footing the past three seasons, going from 18 to 20. The difference between bowl contention and a 10-win season worthy of freedom is great, but not as great as it is for teams coming off three- and four-win seasons.

Brown has injected a lot of energy and enthusiasm into the program, which is great, but he has also improved the talent level. Ohio State fans may have a wide range of opinions on Kyle McCord, but there’s no doubt he’s an upgrade at the QB position compared to what Syracuse had last year, especially in the passing game. Garrett Shrader was useful as a battering ram in the run game, but ‘Cuse finished 13th in the ACC last season in dropback EPA, and his Whoopsy Daisy Rate (fumbles and interceptions divided by dropbacks) of 4.61% was the worst in the ACC by a wide margin.

Enter McCord, who won’t be used much in the run game, but won’t need to be. Oronde Gadsden will be an asset at tight end, while rookies like Justus Ross-Simmons and Zeed Haynes will round out a deeper receiver corps. Then there’s LeQuint Allen, who finished third among ACC running backs last season with 1,064 rushing yards. The offense is positioned to score more than the 23.5 points per game it did last season.

Then there’s the schedule. The toughest games appear to be at NC State in mid-October and the regular season finale at home against Miami. While there are other tough games (vs. Georgia Tech at Pitt and vs. Virginia Tech come to mind), there is no Florida State or Clemson. At ACC you can’t ask for a friendlier time slot than this.

It will be fascinating to watch the new-look Big Ten in the coming years. With four new programs of varying levels of success joining the league and the removal of divisions, some programs have a chance to improve their standing in the league, while others may go in the other direction. Five years from now, I have no idea what the league will look like (hell, there could be two more schools by then), but as for 2024, Rutgers seems like the school best positioned to take advantage of the changes immediately.

The Greg Schiano Era Part 2 has been a slow and steady climb that saw the Scarlet Knights make a bowl game last season due to winning at least six games for the first time since 2014. Their total of six wins this season suggests they are expected to return to the postseason, and perhaps they can do something they haven’t done under Schiano: post a winning conference record. Transfer WR Dymere Miller could be the dynamic playmaker this offense has been missing in the passing game, and while I’m not especially excited about new starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis, he should be an improvement over Gavin Wimsatt in the passing game. Considering Rutgers finished near the bottom of the Big Ten in almost every major passing category, it would be hard to get any worse. (2023 Iowa existed, so it’s possible.)

Like Syracuse, the biggest boost could be the schedule. The non-conference presents a tough road trip for Virginia Tech, and the Knights will be on the road against Nebraska and USC. They also have to deal with Washington and Wisconsin in New Jersey. But you know who they don’t have to deal with anywhere? The three teams that have stepped on their heads every year since Rutgers joined the Big Ten: Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Rutgers also avoids Oregon, which I argue is the strongest of the four Big Ten newcomers in 2024. It’s not crazy to believe Rutgers could be the 2024 version of what Iowa has been in the Big Ten. Ugly victories are victories all the same.

Speaking of the Hawkeye State, how about that other power conference team in Iowa? Trying to find a Cinderella among the Big 12 is not easy. Not because there aren’t teams capable of doing it, but because you could realistically list the entire league. Saturdays this fall in the Big 12 will be full of coin toss games, and I won’t be shocked if Iowa State ends up on the winning side of many of them.

First of all, it’s nothing new for the Cyclones to surprise people. Things have slowed down a bit over the past few seasons, but it was just a few years ago when Iowa State went 9-3 and reached No. 6 in the CFP rankings, finishing the season ranked No. 10. Purdy and Breece Hall lead the Cyclones to the Fiesta Bowl. If you squint a little, Rocco Becht and Abu Sama seem like a similar match.

Becht flew under the radar as a freshman last season, and while we’ve seen players regress in their sophomore seasons many times before, I like Becht’s chances of maintaining a level of play that has Iowa State ranked fourth in the Big 12 from the EPA. by a drop last season – at the very least. Additionally, this is a team that returns many of its key contributors from last season, which could provide an advantage in a league where the top and bottom are not very separated.

If there’s one concern, it’s the schedule. Not only will there be a trip to Iowa in Week 2, but the Cyclones will be on the road for big games against Kansas and Utah in November before finishing the regular season with Kansas State the week after the Utes. This is a difficult final stretch.

I’ll get this out of the way right now: Based on my criteria for selecting a Cinderella, I feel safe in saying there will not be an outlaw Cinderella outside of the SEC this season. The league is very deep at the top. Although I chose Auburn for this project, the truth is that nine other teams in the league have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Tigers. But it’s not impossible! Auburn has been an agent of chaos for some time and has won one national title and played for another in the last 15 years.

Furthermore, it is a talented team. The Tigers don’t have the talent that other members of the SEC have, but if they’re lucky with injuries, they’ll have enough to compete with just about anyone they face during the regular season. I’m not too excited about Payton Thorne — Auburn’s passing attack was pretty bad last year — but I’ve learned over the years to give coach Hugh Freeze the benefit of the doubt with his QBs. He does a good job extracting every ounce of skill from them.

Ultimately, the rest of the league and the schedule will likely prevent the Tigers from reaching their Cinderella potential. They are on the road through Georgia and Alabama this season, in addition to Missouri and Kentucky. Add in a few home meetings with Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and maybe they can make it to the CFP with a 9-3 record, but it won’t be easy.