The six college football QBs replacing 2024 first-round draft picks, ranked by best chance of success

A few weeks ago, I locked myself in my film cave and meticulously analyzed every photo from the coaches’ films to evaluate the six defenders stepping in to replace 2024 first-round picks NFL Draft. Some took a long time (Oregon’s new QB Dillon Gabriel), while others, thanks to a smaller sample size, were much shorter, though no less interesting (Michigan’s Alex Orji). These detailed notes were published this week on 247Sports.

Our projections for these quarterbacks vary greatly. Below, we’ve summarized the scouting reports into shorter essays, ranking each of the six defenders by the likelihood of successfully replacing their predecessor in the first round, based not only on the physical talent of the defender himself, but also the supporting cast around him. .

Prepared for great success

1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon

Replacing: Bo Nix (No. 12 overall, Denver Broncos)

Dillon Gabriel, in what appears to be his tenth year of college, brings extensive experience and running a tempo-based offense to a loaded Oregon team hoping to make a deep playoff run (Gabriel has 49 starts, nearly 15,000 passing yards and 125 touchdown passes to his name).

Gabriel had his best season last year in Norman, scoring 12 touchdowns on the ground and making critical plays to move the chains. Gabriel excels in pace and RPO-based attacking, delivering the ball at the right time with a live arm that can dissect defenses. He reads defenses well, finds green grass for easy shots and takes advantage of man-to-man confrontations for explosive plays. His ability to extend plays and navigate the pocket, whether with his arms or legs, is a defining characteristic. Despite occasionally missing crosses and deep shots, Gabriel is poised to be one of the best defenders in the country.

His adaptation to Will Stein’s offense and comparison to Bo Nix’s performance in the 2023 Heisman finalist season will be interesting to watch. Expect a big season from Gabriel, with his performance against Ohio State potentially influencing the 2024 Heisman conversation.

2. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Replacing: Jayden Daniels (No. 2 overall, Washington commanders)

Garrett Nussmeier finally takes over at LSU after backing up All-American and Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. Known for his excellent arm and football IQ, he is poised for a breakout season behind a top offensive line and a talented receiving corps. In limited action last season, he shined in his debut against Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl, throwing for 410 yards and six touchdowns.

Nussmeier plays with a gunslinger mentality, confidently throwing shots from windows closed on his body. He has a quick release and makes accurate passes when his feet are steady, although his accuracy can suffer under pressure. LSU has a favorable schedule early on, which will give Nussmeier time to get super comfortable. He could be a 2025 first-round draft pick.

The wild cards

3.Miller Moss, USC

Replacing: Caleb Williams (No. 1 overall, Chicago Bears)

Miller Moss gained valuable experience last year as a backup to first overall pick Caleb Williams, culminating in a stellar performance in his only start in the Holiday Bowl where he threw for 377 yards and six touchdowns. His calm and collected demeanor in that game boosted his confidence and earned the trust of his teammates and coaches.

USC went to the transfer portal looking for a backup in Jayden Maiava, but Moss’ performance in the bowl game convinced Lincoln Riley that he didn’t need a starter. We could see a very good season here in Los Angeles if Moss’ offensive line holds up. The wide receiver room will be very good and USC shouldn’t have to take as many penalties.

Moss has a good arm and accuracy, but often hits his primary target without progressing in his reads, which was evident in his limited action and led to turnovers against Louisville. This season, Moss needs to improve his ability to use his eyes to move defenders and go through progressions to avoid ball-attacking defenders. His success will depend on his ability to make these adjustments and utilize easy finishes for the backs.

4. Max Johnson, North Carolina

Replacing: Drake Maye (No. 3 overall, New England Patriots)

Max Johnson, an experienced lefty, is expected to replace Drake Maye at North Carolina. With 20 starts at LSU and Texas A&M, he threw for over 5,800 yards, 47 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Johnson delivers accurate, timely passes to all levels of the field, excelling on short and intermediate throws. His high IQ and football pedigree are evident in his ability to read defenses. He shows surprisingly agile size at 6-foot-2 and can make plays with his feet.

Johnson shoots well on the move and makes good decisions under pressure, throwing shots up the middle and connecting when necessary. However, his average release time and inconsistent pocket presence can hinder his performance – he often deflects too deep or laterally, which complicates offensive line protection.

Overall, I’d be surprised if Moss was anything more than average. North Carolina will likely struggle in 2024 and the crystal ball says coach Mack Brown considers this a career after the season.

We could see them getting on the bench

5. Will Rogers, Washington

Replacing: Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 overall, Atlanta Falcons)

Will Rogers struggled last year as Mississippi State navigated to a pro-style system. Now in Washington, he faces, well, the challenge of mastering Jedd Fisch’s offensive style and adapting to the NFL terminology when replacing Michael Penix Jr. and much of Washington’s 2023 offense.

Yes, Rogers brings an impressive resume to the Pacific Northwest, including 40 games as a starter and holding the SEC record for career completions. His strengths lie in his ability to process defenses quickly, advance his progressions and minimize turnovers, as evidenced by his low interception rate, even in a bad year. However, his arm strength is average, excelling at short and intermediate throws, and he showed a significant drop in accuracy last season, completing just 60% of his passes compared to 70% in previous years. How does this bode well on the road in the Midwest and at home in the fog of Seattle?

If Fisch can restore his confidence, Rogers could improve, but Washington’s potential talent deficit and his own limitations could lead to a disappointing season and possibly the loss of the starting job to a younger, more athletic quarterback in true freshman Demond Williams , if Fisch decides to play for 2025.

6. Alex Orji, Michigan

Replacing: JJ McCarthy (No. 10 overall, Minnesota Vikings)

Alex Orji is the most unpredictable defender of the six, with impressive size and athletic ability suggesting how Sherrone Moore could run the Michigan offense in 2024. Despite limited playing time – 17 snaps last season and just eight in 2022 with just one attempt passing – Orji showcased his physical running ability as a change of pace in Michigan’s ground-and-pound attack. A dynamic athlete, he stands out with the ball in his hands, but defenses will anticipate and charge the area to stop the run.

While Michigan’s coaches are confident in his running abilities, his passing ability remains untested. Former coach Jim Harbaugh praised Orji’s arm talent, noting his high school statistics of over 2,000 passing yards, a 51% completion rate, 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Michigan is expected to use run-heavy formations to emphasize the run, as Orji’s passing capabilities are still unknown outside of the lineup.

He could continue in last year’s situational role or be surpassed by a more traditional passer.