Blake Davis
With the PGA Championship returning to Valhalla for the first time in a decade, the key question everyone is asking is the same across the golf world: Who will you pick to win this 106th game of one of the country’s most notable tournaments? With an extraordinary field featuring the world’s top professionals and many of the world’s best amateurs, the second major championship of 2024 is set to be an epic journey from Thursday’s first round to the presentation of the Wanamaker Trophy early Sunday evening.
There is a three-headed monster at the top of the 2024 PGA Championship field, as Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy have won the last two tournaments they have started in. Scheffler’s run has been even more impressive – winning four of his last five matches – but he has also been away for nearly a month while tending to personal matters, including the birth of his first child. Koepka, the defending PGA champion, dominated LIV Golf and reignited his top-level play.
McIlroy hit the ground running alongside Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic and took advantage of his comfort at Quail Hollow to win last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. Now he visits the place and event where he won his last major 10 years ago, hoping that a little more familiarity with the course and tournament will bring him back into the winner’s circle.
There are plenty of golfers behind them who will certainly be in contention, including prodigy Ludvig Åberg, Bryson DeChambeau, reigning US Open champion Wyndham Clark and John Rahm – just to name a few. And there is the duo Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Woods hasn’t played a full weekend at the PGA Championship since 2020, while Mickelson won it all the following season.
So what’s going to happen in Valhalla this week? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we try to project who will win – and what will happen – in the world’s most prestigious golf tournament.
Watch the final two rounds of the 2024 PGA Championship live on Saturday and Sunday from 1pm to 7pm ET on CBS and Paramount+.
2024 PGA Championship Expert Picks and Predictions
Kyle Porter, Senior Golf Writer
Winner: Scottie Scheffler (4-1): I’m going to keep picking Scottie until he loses, which he hasn’t done much of in recent months. Since March 1, Scheffler has lost to one golfer: Stephan Jaegar at the Houston Open. And that. It probably hurts him a little that this is less a strategy golf course and more an execution golf course, but he’s been firing on all cylinders in both areas for a long time.
Sleeper – Cameron Young (55-1): I’m looking for someone who gives the ball the most. To check. Someone who has had success in previous PGA Championships. To check. Someone who plays well in the main championships in general. To check. Someone who has had some success so far this season. To check. And someone who is currently undervalued. To check. There’s no world in which Young should be 55-1 on this course, especially after his smooth T9 at the Masters and how well he handles the ball on a course that demands it.
Top 10 Blocks – Rory McIlroy: He’s playing such good golf now and, more importantly, he’s hitting driver as well as ever, entering a course where that will be a huge benefit. His lack of major wins in recent years has apparently been the result of mental rather than physical obstacles, and there aren’t that many mental obstacles when it comes to finishing in the top 10. in each of the last two years without his best.
Definitely Won’t Win Star – Xander Schauffele: I don’t know if Schauffele qualifies as a star, but I feel like if you’re in the top five in the world, you kind of deserve that designation. But I definitely don’t believe he will win. He’s struggled to close out major championships (hell, tournaments in general) and enters this one after getting run over by McIlroy at the end of last week’s Wells Fargo Championship.
Scottie Scheffler x Brooks Koepka x Rory McIlroy: Obviously, by picking Scheffler to win, I put him ahead. I’m actually not too excited about Koepka this week. He thrives in strategy competitions because he is very good at keeping a cool head when the people around him are losing theirs. Still, I think he will finish in the top 15, which means all three will have good weeks, although they will end with Scheffler on top, McIlroy next and Koepka third.
Tiger Woods vs Phil Mickelson: We both missed the cut, but Mickelson is closer than Woods. Lefty isn’t playing golf well and Tiger isn’t playing golf. It’s one thing for Tiger to have success on a strategic golf course like Augusta National, where he can think straight. It’s quite another in a place like Valhalla, where he’ll have to get it right forever and make his way through a big stadium.
Surprise prediction – nail-biting finish: I don’t know if this is a huge surprise, but considering how many losses we’ve had at majors recently (the last two ended before the last nine on Sunday), it might be a shock to see this leaderboard rival the 2021 US Open in terms of how crowded it is at the end of week. Big names, big players and eventually Scheffler will emerge, but not before he gets all sorts of heat from guys like McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Wyndham Clark.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 273 (-15)
Winner’s score on Sunday: 68 (-4)
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner – Bryson DeChambeau (28-1): I strayed from my preseason Masters pick (Scheffler) like an idiot, so I won’t make that mistake again. When I look at Valhalla, I see a golf course that asks players to hit it long and straight off the tee – a golf course that will provide some relief around the green due to the rough terrain. That should play into the hands of DeChambeau, who was the first-round leader at Oak Hill last year and at the Masters last month. He’s in great shape, among the best drivers in the game and someone who’s won with a Jack Nicklaus design before.
Sleeper – Will Zalatoris (75-1): The form isn’t great, but this guy just finished in the top 10 at the Masters. In fact, Zalatoris has finished in the top 10 seven times in his 10 major starts as a professional. Three of them doubled as runners-up, including their defeat in the playoffs of this championship just two years ago. The lanky right-hander knows how to play big-time golf. Among the leaders in terms of proximity at 175 to 225 yards, he could be a bargain at this price.
Top 10 Locks – Scottie Scheffler: Boring, I know. Even with a month off due to the arrival of baby Scheffler, the world number 1 should continue where he left off. Winner of four of his last five tournaments, Scheffler has widened the gap between himself and the rest of the world, making the Grand Slam a real conversation starter. I doubt there will be competitive rust, but I will play conservatively, finishing in the top 10, which he has achieved in 10 of his last 15 major starts, including last year at Oak Hill, where he finished runner-up after holding the lead. of 36 holes.
Definitely Won’t Win Star – Cameron Smith: This one is tough but I hate the route suits Smith even though he came in in good shape. He’s not too far off the tee, he’s not immediately off the tee, and this golf course slightly mitigates his advantage in short games. The Australian has been good at majors in recent years (including at Oak Hill last year, which was a surprise), but I could see him struggling at Valhalla. I may be selling this week, but I’ll be buying next month at Pinehurst No.
Scottie Scheffler x Brooks Koepka x Rory McIlroy: There’s a chance they finish 2-3-4 right behind DeChambeau, of course. Scheffler’s floor is so high at the moment that it’s hard to suggest he will lose to anyone, while Koepka has reached the PGA Championship from him major over the last half-decade or so – he’s had a chance to win in all of them since 2018 if you take out 2022, when he was injured. McIlroy is also in top form, with two wins, and is the second best player in the world. Koepka makes you look like an idiot if you side with him in the majors, but I think he finishes last in this group, with Scheffler finding a podium and McIlroy not far behind that.
Tiger Woods vs Phil Mickelson: After some mental gymnastics, I decided to go with the Big Cat. Since the start of 2022, Woods has made five of seven cuts, including his last PGA Championship at Southern Hills. I think he’s capable of playing again on the weekend, and at that point I hope the dip in form (which will likely happen) won’t matter, as Mickelson’s disobedience off the tee will send him packing early.
Surprise prediction – Jordan Spieth enters the fray at some point: It could happen early in the first round or late Sunday, but Spieth will put his name on the front page of the leaderboard this week. He’s driving the golf ball perhaps better than ever, which will be crucial to his chances. The rest of his game is disorganized and the wrist injury continues to bother him, but this is Spieth we’re talking about. He showed that he is capable of anything. Anything.
Lowest round: 65 (-6)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner’s score on Sunday: 68 (-3)
Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship and what odds will surprise the golf world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that won 11 golf championshipsincluding the last three master’s degrees.
