Blake Davis
A total of 156 golfers will play this week in the 2024 PGA Championship, and while everyone would love to believe they have a chance to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy at Valhalla Golf Club, history suggests otherwise. There are 21 PGA professionals, several former champions who are there to have fun and those who play on the PGA Tour, DP World Tour or LIV Golf who are simply out of shape.
That’s not to say it’s impossible for someone to capture lightning in a bottle… just look at Phil Mickelson three years ago. He defied conventional wisdom by arriving at Kiawah Island without a top-20 finish that year, only to leave the South Carolina coast with the Wanamaker Trophy and his sixth major triumph in hand. Oh, and all this happened at age 50.
There have been other challenges from unlikely candidates – like Mito Pereira at Southern Hills – but with a list of winners that includes Brooks Koepka three times, Justin Thomas twice and Collin Morikawa in his championship debut, it’s hard to ignore the quality of player that will likely win his second major championship of the year.
With all this in mind, let’s look back at the 10 most recent winners of the PGA Championship and identify what trends exist as we try to narrow down the 156-player field to identify this year’s champion.
1. Official World Golf Ranking
The ratings have lost some accuracy and integrity amid the LIV Golf drama, but are still solid for points-receiving tours. We’ll have to be a little flexible here, as nine of the last 10 winners found themselves in the OWGR top 50 at the time of their triumph (Mickelson ranked 115th). Seven of the last 10 were in the top 12, a list that does not include Koepka from last season. Let’s start with the top 50 cutoff point for tour players who to do receive points.
Deleted: Non-LIV golfers outside the OWGR top 50, notably Jake Knapp, Adam Scott, Taylor Moore, Alex Noren, Tiger Woods and Michael Block
2. Changes in direction, what is at stake is not
The PGA Championship has changed in more ways than one over the past 10 years. Not only does the championship rotate golf courses, it also moved from August to May on the calendar; that change happened in 2019. Regardless, quality has proven to be an important barometer in this particular league. Nine of the last 10 champions have finished in the top 20, with the sole exception of Morikawa, who won on his debut (2020).
Deleted: Dean Burmester, Adrian Meronk, Joaquin Niemann, Andy Ogletree, David Puig, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Ludvig Åberg, Matthieu Pavon, Byeong Hun An, Tom Kim, Nick Taylor, Denny McCarthy, Akshay Bhatia, Nicolai Hojgaard, Stephan Jaeger, J.T. Poston, Adam Schenk, Austin Eckroat
3. What have you done for me lately?
Great champions rarely appeared without warning, and even Mickelson has shown some form in 2021. The six-time major champion won a couple of times on the Champions Tour that fall and actually held a first-round lead at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks before his victory. Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Thomas (2017) had already achieved multiple victories, while Koepka (2018, 2023) and Morikawa had entered the winner’s circle in their previous few starts. Nine of the last 10 winners had at least one top-five finish during the calendar year.
Deleted: Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson, Viktor Hovland, Lucas Glover, Rickie Fowler, Si Woo Kim, Emiliano Grillo, Harris English, Kurt Kitayama, Corey Conners
4. Major Championship Pedigree
Six of the last 10 winners already had a big win under their belt. The last winner in Valhalla, McIlroy, already had three at the time of victory. Last year’s champion, Koepka, already had four. Once again, Morikawa bucks this trend – it was only his second major championship – but nine of the last 10 winners have had at least one top-10 finish at a major championship.
Deleted: Sam Burns, Lucas Herbert, Talor Gooch
5. Let’s get technical
If finishing positions don’t work for you, putting data will probably be your vice. The last 10 champions have averaged positive strokes gained per round over the last three months, with Mickelson and Walker bringing up the rear at +0.43 and +0.04, respectively. When looking at this, it makes sense that they have gone unnoticed. The same cannot be said for Day (+2.03), Koepka in 2018 (+2.09), Thomas in 2022 (+2.36) and McIlroy (+2.86). In total, this group of champions averaged +1.64 strokes gained per round – the benchmark we will use, much to the consternation of many recent major champions and many potential contenders.
Deleted: Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Brian Harman, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Russell Henley, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth , Chris Kirk, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, Min Woo Lee
That leaves us with… five golfers
Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama
Scheffler is by far the best player in the world, with four wins in his last five matches and all the statistics to back him up, but can he overcome a month-long layoff en route to his second major championship this season? McIlroy, fresh off back-to-back victories, is aiming for his first major title in a decade on the golf course where he last lifted the Wanamaker Trophy. DeChambeau has once again become a top-caliber player, taking a first-round lead not only at this year’s Masters, but also at last year’s PGA Championship. Will he string it through all 72 holes?
Meanwhile, Schauffele continues to be a statistical darling and top-10 machine, but at some point, a player with his skill level is going to have to go out there and conquer a major golf tournament away from major competition. Matsuyama may be the biggest question mark of the group following his withdrawal from the Wells Fargo Championship, but if he is healthy, he is capable of adding another major trophy to his mantle.
