2024 PGA Championship takeaways: Rory McIlroy looks poised to break major drought despite struggles off tee

LOUISVILLE – If someone told you Rory McIlroy would hit just seven of 14 fairways and miss a half-shot off the tee to open the 2024 PGA Championship, you’d think he was on the chopping block working to win the weekend. You would also be wrong.

McIlroy, who actually finished outside the top 100 in strokes gained off the tee, instead sits at 5 under, four strokes behind leader Xander Schauffele and T4 on the leaderboard with an inside track to win his first major championship since… the 2014 PGA Championship here at Valhalla Golf Club.

How did this happen? How did Rory shoot 66 without successfully using his most violent weapon? How is he in the mix despite fighting at his greatest strength?

Well, in a twist, McIlroy knocked down flags all day with his short irons and gave himself plenty of opportunities to make birdies. One example occurred on the first hole, where he pushed his drive into a mound on the right side. He missed the lie, hit an incredible shot from 165 yards (that hit the pin) and made the 6-footer for birdie.

“I kind of felt like it was very confusing for the most part,” McIlroy about his opening round. “I don’t really feel like I left too many out there. I thought I got a lot out of my game today. Some good ups and downs, the chip-in in 6. I had a little bit of a tricky part near the turn, but overall… I’m not very happy with the way I played, but at least I’m happy with the score.”

The 66 is McIlroy’s ninth opening round with a higher or better score. Greg Norman is second with six. No one else has more than five, which is surprising. However, that’s not the statistic McIlroy cares about. That’s it:

Major championships won since 2014

McIlroy will almost certainly recover with his driver in the final 54 holes, which could mean three special final rounds. He did the important part, though, staying in the mix during a run that, in recent years, has often seen Rory playing himself. outside of tournaments.

He’s been better lately, though. While McIlroy used to always come up behind in tournaments like this, more recently he managed to get ahead but couldn’t close out.

Thursday was one of those days again. A quietly brave performance when McIlroy wasn’t flowing and nothing was getting worse. Remember those first 18 holes on Sunday, when McIlroy leads by four as he jumps to major No.

Underrated humility

Brooks Koepka didn’t do anything special over 15 holes on Thursday. He was only 1 below on the day and apparently had his gear in neutral. Then he took a 211-yard shot on the par-5 7th hole and missed it by less than three feet. That’s when his PGA Championship began. Koepka covered that eagle with a birdie on the par-3 8th and did what he seemingly always does, which is slowly work his way into contention in the early hours of a major championship.

“I actually got lucky,” Koepka said of the photo. “I was on top of a sprinkler. I was on the first cut, but I was able to move it back to the fairway, which kind of helped. I would hit 5 irons on the first cut or move it back 2 yards and hit 6 irons Obviously not aiming there. [at the flag]then it is pulled.

“But that’s why you take that line. You’re hitting the center of the green and just trying to make 4 and get out of there.”

This illustrates Koepka’s strategy in major championships: hit as many greens as possible and take whatever score is put in front of you.

“I just stayed patient,” he said. “[Caddie Ricky Elliott] kept me saying all day: be patient, wait your turn, and I think that’s one of the things I’m exceptionally good at. Sometimes you’re in a round of golf, you just have to wait your turn and catch that run like I did with an eagle bird.”

He insisted that this is something unique to him in his specialties.

“I’m not a patient person,” Koepka added. “Yes, I think it all started in 2014, when I was trying to study, guys. [Dustin Johnson and Graeme McDowell}. Those guys were big influences on me and the way I approach it. I played a good bit with Rory I think in ’14, ’15 too, watching how he did things. I was still on the Challenge Tour. My first year on the PGA Tour was 2015. So just trying to figure out how to adjust to getting out there.”

Koepka is criticized for plenty — even by yours truly — but one he should be commended for his humility at majors. He takes the event as it comes, doesn’t worrying about what everyone else is doing and tries not to force the issue. It’s so easy to say and so difficult to accomplish. He has been one of the best of his generation — maybe the best — at carrying it out when the chips are down.

Wayward Spaniard

If you listen to Jon Rahm speak and watch Jon Rahm play golf and believe all is well with him emotionally and mentally, then you are just being willfully delusional. Following a mediocre Masters at which he alluded to a belief he could galvanize the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, Rahm went into this PGA Championship and told everyone that he still considers himself a PGA Tour member.

Then he went out and played one of his worst rounds in recent major history, though he did birdie four of his final six holes to reach a somewhat-respectable 1 under (given he started 3 over through his first 11). Clearly something is amiss with the two-time major champion, and he is almost comically far from truly contending at one of these tournaments. Perhaps that’s related to his move over to LIV Golf, or perhaps it is not. But it is not business as usual for Rahm, which is unfortunate because having him in the mix to win majors is far more enjoyable than not having him in the mix.

How far is too far (back)?

Justin Ray notes that 33 of the last 34 PGA champions were within six strokes of the leader after the first day of competition. If that holds, it sure eliminates a ton of players from contention. It would also mean that your champion will be one of the following 31 men:

• Xander Schauffele (-9)
• Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau (-6)
• Thomas Detry, Rory McIlroy, Robert MacIntyre, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Mark Hubbard (-5)
• Scottie Scheffler, Taylore Moore, Ben Kohles, Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren, Austin Eckroat, Maverick McNealy (-4)
• Harris English, Kurt Kitayama, Jason Dufner, Alejandro Tosti, Aaron Rai, Jesper Svensson, Max Homa, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Smith, Martin Kaymer, Rasmus Hojgaard, Viktor Hovland, Andrew Putnam, Adam Hadwin (-3)

Golfers, man

Justin Thomas, who impressively rebounded from a round in which he was 1 over through 12 holes, finished 2 under on the day by making birdies at four of his last six. He also said out loud what everyone thinks about golf and golfers. I know I do about my own game. Pros do, too, apparently. It was quite amusing.

“Dude, look, golfers are disappointed no matter what they shoot,” Thomas said. “That is one thing that will never change. We could shoot 56, and we should have shot 55.”

Xander’s closing kick

To the surprise of nobody, Xander Schauffele played tremendous golf in the first round of the PGA Championship.

“I’d say it’s the same stuff that we’ve all been watching on TV this year or in person,” said Thomas of his Ryder Cup teammate. “He’s such a complete player. This year, he’s hitting it even further. As good as he drove it, now he’s doing the same — just 15 yards further and faster. He’s smart. I’ve always thought he has one of the best demeanors out here, which is obviously something that you can’t necessarily just change overnight. He just has no quit in him, and he’s always hanging in there and staying patient. He’s playing really, really great golf right now. So, you feel like he’s one of those guys every time he tees it up right now, he’s going to be in contention.”

That is obviously not the problem. This, on the other hand, is a problem.

Strokes gained vs. wins since 2022

According to Data Golf’s pressure tool, when Schauffele enters the third or fourth round among the top three on the leaderboard, he shoots slightly lower than his expected strokes gained number in those rounds. That should come to nobody’s surprise as well.

At some point, a golfer is either a stat collector or a serious winner of majors. We have officially reached that intersection of Schauffele’s career. 

An emblematic eagle

It was hilarious and amazing that Scheffler holed out his first iron shot since returning to the PGA Tour after having his first child. He had been absent since going back to back at the Masters and RBC Heritage last month. It’s also emblematic of the season, one in which he’s ranked first in the following statistical categories.

• Strokes gained
• Strokes gained off the tee
• Strokes gained on approach
• Strokes gained ball striking
• Strokes gained from tee to green

While places like Augusta National and Pinehurst are better spots for Scheffler, who is a tremendous strategist, it’s also easy to forget that nobody is better at executing the shot that’s in front of him. Scottie did that at No. 1 on Thursday, and he continued doing so all day, which is why he’s back near another major championship lead.

Loaded leaderboard

I’m getting 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines vibes from this leaderboard. Golf courses like this one — big and brawny with receptive greens — normally lead to the fullest of full-time hitters contending, and that is what’s happening so far at Valhalla. It’s difficult to tell right now because they haven’t all fully emerged, but don’t be surprised on Sunday when we get another traffic jam of mashers like Schauffele, McIlroy, Scheffler, Koepka, Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau battling for the Wanamaker Trophy.