2024 U.S. Open odds: Scottie Scheffler stands as heavy favorite with Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka near top

With the PGA Championship well in the rearview mirror and Scottie Scheffler back in the Scottie Scheffler thing with his T2 at the Charles Schwab Challenge this past weekend, now it’s time to look ahead to the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst. It’s possible that next week’s RBC Canadian Open and Memorial Tournament will change the odds picture between now and then, but what’s unlikely to change is the world’s No. 1 golfer ahead as the favorite to win the year’s third major .

Pinehurst last hosted the US Open in 2014 when Martin Kaymer ran away with the event. Before that, it was Michael Campbell over Tiger Woods in 2005 and Payne Stewart over Phil Mickelson in 1999. The 2024 field will be absolutely packed, but of course that doesn’t guarantee one of the game’s biggest names will walk away with the trophy. .

This year’s edition of the US Open should see Pinehurst much tighter and faster than Valhalla played at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. This should result in an excellent, hard-fought championship with much lower numbers than what we saw in Louisville.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Pinehurst odds board as we try to identify where there might be some value among those playing in the 2024 US Open.

2024 US Open Odds

There are usually three or four golfers at this location. This year is different because Scheffler is a different guy. He’s playing probably the best golf we’ve seen since Tiger Woods stopped playing his best golf — at least statistically — and that’s appropriate because these major championship odds are similar to Tiger’s. I probably wouldn’t take Scheffler at 7/2, but I believe he will beat Pinehurst by four or five.

• Rory McIlroy: 11-1
• Xander Schauffele: 12-1
• John Rahm: 14-1
• Viktor Hovland: 16-1
• Brooks Koepka: 16-1
• Ludvig Aberg: 16-1
• Colin Morikawa: 20-1
• Bryson DeChambeau: 20-1

As always, Koepka feels undervalued. He is a five-time major winner and finished T4 here in 2014. This venue also seems more suited to Schauffele than Valhalla, although I don’t like the 12-1 odds. DeChambeau is interesting. He was arguably the best player not named Scheffler in the first two majors – both he and Schauffele are 22 under through eight rounds of majors this year – and while I don’t like Pinehurst as much as I liked Valhalla for him, there’s a lot value there at 20-1.

The same goes for Morikawa. He is playing solid golf and has been in the final doubles in each of the first two championships. The US Open should theoretically be the best setup for him in the majors, and 20-1 is too high.

• Patrick Cantlay: 25-1
• Will Zalatoris: 25-1
• Wyndham Clark: 28-1
• Joaquín Niemann: 28-1
• Cameron Smith: 28-1
• Maximum Homa: 30-1
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 35-1
• Justin Thomas: 35-1
• Jordan Spieth: 35-1
• Hideki Matsuyama: 35-1
• Dustin Johnson: 35-1

Zalatoris’ last three US Opens were T6, missed cut and T2. He has been extraordinary at the US Open in the past and has played excellent golf at times so far in 2024. I really like him at 25-1. I also like Smith at 28-1 because he’s going to bust his ass on that golf course; as well as Homa at 30-1 and Matsuyama at 35-1. Also, don’t let JT’s bat get hot. He finished first in putting, won tee to green at the PGA Championship and almost last in putting.

• Tyrrell Hatton: 40-1
• Tony Finau: 40-1
• Tommy Fleetwood: 40-1
• Cameron Young: 40-1
• Shane Lowry: 50-1
• Sam Burns: 50-1
• Sahith Theegala: 50-1
• Min Woo Lee: 50-1
• Jason Day: 50-1

Fleetwood is incredible at the US Open (and open championships). He has three top finishes at the US Open (including last year) and is a real contender in this one. Lowry at 50-1 is also intriguing here if he can maintain some of the momentum he seemed to find in Valhalla.