2024 U.S. Open odds, golf picks: Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy predictions from model that won the Masters, PGA

It wasn’t long ago that Matthew Fitzpatrick lifted the US Open trophy for the first time in his career. Fitzpatrick secured his first major title with a six-under par performance in 2022, defeating Will Zalatoris and Scottie Scheffler by one stroke. Fitzpatrick will look to rekindle the magic and lift the Claret Jug again at the 2024 US Open, which begins at Pinehurst No. 2 on Thursday, June 13. The latest 2024 US Open odds list Fitzpatrick as a longshot at 40-1.

Scheffler, the world’s No. 1 player, is the 4-1 favorite at the 2024 US Open, with Rory McIlroy (9-1), Xander Schauffele (10-1), Brooks Koepka (12-1) and Jon Rahm (12 -1) is next in line on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2024 US Open picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on a roll since the PGA Tour restarted in June 2020. In fact, the model has won nearly $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, winning tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model correctly predicted that Scottie Scheffler would finish atop the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit +9,000, and throughout the tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted that Jon Rahm would be victorious in the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model scored the second major victory of Rahm’s career over the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead in the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the model’s second consecutive victory at the Masters, which also guaranteed Scheffler’s victory in 2022.

This same model also nailed 12 majors heading into the weekend, including three consecutive Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who followed it saw massive returns.

Now as the 2024 US Open approaches, SportsLine has simulated the tournament 10,000 times and the results have been surprising. Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard for the 2024 US Open.

2024 US Open predictions for Brooks Koepka, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy

A shock that the model is asking for at the US Open 2024: Brooks Koepka (12-1), five-time major winner and US Open champion in 2017 and 2018, struggles and barely makes it into the top 10. Koepka has gone through peaks and valleys in majors throughout his career. He won four majors from 2017 to 2019 but fell in 2022, never finishing better than 55th in four majors before bouncing back with a runner-up finish and a win in 2023. However, he is in the midst of another slump and enters US in 2024. Open with three consecutive finishes outside the top 25 in majors.

Koepka has gone over par in eight of his last 11 rounds in the majors. He has struggled to put together a strong 18 holes and has not appeared in the top 10 of the leaderboard after any round in his last four major matches. His average finish of 38th place across these four majors simply doesn’t inspire much confidence to use it in your short US Open 2024 betting odds. See who else will disappear here.

The model also fixed its projection for Tiger Woods (125-1), a 15-time major winner. Woods has won the US Open three times in his career, most recently in 2008. His 15 major titles rank second only to Jack Nicklaus (18).

Woods is one of golf’s five career Grand Slam winners, but injuries have taken their toll on the 48-year-old. He had to withdraw from the Genesis Invitational in February and is coming off a loss at the PGA Championship in May. He was eliminated at the Masters in April, but shot 82 and 77 in the final two rounds to finish 60th. See where each golfer finishes here.

On the other hand, the model examined Rory McIlroy’s (9-1) chances of winning his second US Open after winning in 2011. McIlroy has made 23 consecutive cuts, the third-longest active streak on the tour. He has a high floor, but McIlroy has also had a low ceiling, for the most part, this tour season. He has just four players in the top 10, as well as 21 other players on tour, after being one of three golfers with at least 13 top 10s last season.

McIlroy’s metrics indicate he should place better than he has so far, as he is in the top five in the strokes gained categories: total, tee-to-green and off-the-tee. He’s also second in distance traveled and third in scoring average (adjusted), but a golfer is only as strong as his club. The four-time major winner falls outside the top 100 in avoiding 3 shots, which could hurt his shot to get to the green. Still, McIlroy has improved his finishing in each of his last five US Open starts, and after finishing runner-up in 2023, there is only one place he can improve in 2024. See the model’s full US Open projections here.

How to make picks at the 2024 US Open

The model targets three golfers with odds of 20-1 or better at the 2024 US Open who will make surprising runs. Anyone who supports these longshot hypotheses could hit big. You can only see the model picks for the 2024 US Open here.

Who will win the 2024 US Open, which long shots will surprise the golf world and where will Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the latest 2024 US Open odds below and after visit SportsLine to see the projected 2024 US Open leaderboard, all from the model who has won 12 golf majorsincluding this year’s Masters and PGA Championship.

2024 US Open Odds, Field

See all the US Open 2024 picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler 4-1
Rory McIlroy 9-1
Xander Schauffele 10-1
Brooks Koepka 12-1
John Rahm 12-1
Ludvig Aberg 14-1
Viktor Hovland 18-1
Collin Morikawa 18-1
Bryson DeChambeau 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Wyndham Clark 22-1
Joaquin Niemann 25-1
Cameron Smith 25-1
Max Homa 30-1
Justin Thomas 33-1
Cameron Young 35-1
Dustin Johnson 35-1
Jordan Spieth 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Shane Lowry 40-1
Sahith Theegala 40-1
Tom Kim 40-1
Tony Finau 40-1
Sungjae I’m 40-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1
Jason Day 45-1
Tommy Fleetwood 50-1
Min Woo Lee 50-1
Tyrrell Hatton 50-1
Brian Harman 55-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Sam burns 60-1
Patrick Reed 60-1
Si Woo Kim 65-1
Justin Rosa 65-1
Sepp Straka 70-1
Louis Oosthuizen 75-1
Abraham Ancer 75-1
Rickie Fowler 75-1
Adam Scott 75-1
Talor Gooch 75-1
Russell Henley 90-1
Daniel Berger 100-1
Keegan Bradley 100-1
Keith Mitchell 125-1
Ryan Fox 125-1
JT Poston 125-1
Billy Horschel 125-1
Tiger Woods 125-1
Sergio Garcia 125-1
Thomas Pieters 150-1
Kurt Kitayama 150-1
Phil Mickelson 150-1
Myth Pereira 150-1
Denny McCarthy 150-1
Harris English 150-1
Christian Bezuidenhout 150-1
Adam Schenk 175-1
Emiliano Grillo 175-1
Austin Eckroat 175-1
Robert MacIntyre 175-1
Marc Leishman 175-1
Adam Hadwin 175-1
Luke Glover 200-1
Nick Taylor 200-1
Davis Riley 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 200-1
Jason Kokrak 200-1
Harold Varner III 225-1
Seamus Power 225-1
Taylor Moore 250-1
Ben Kohles 250-1
Gary Woodland 250-1
Aaron Sage 250-1
Francisco Molinari 350-1
Joel Dahmen 350-1
Martin Kaymer 500-1
Bernard Langer 750-1