2024 U.S. Open predictions, picks: Ranking the field, favorites to win from 1-24 at Pinehurst

The fourth U.S. Open has arrived at Pinehurst and it looks like the golf course is already a monster. While this type of setup would likely open the door for more than just the stars to come through – all it takes is just a look at Pinehurst’s history as a major venue to confirm this – we decided to rank the top 24 in this field most likely to win a third major championship. of the year.

Any top 24 list at any golf course in the world has to start with Scottie Scheffler, who is now seeking a second major in his last three starts after winning the Masters and finishing in the top 10 at the PGA Championship following his bizarre arrest and incarceration in Louisville. He’s the big favorite at 3-1, and yes, he should be. Scheffler has won five of eight tournaments, fixed the one thing that ails him (a stubborn putter) and shows no signs of slowing down. His history at the US Open is also great, as we will explore below.

Let’s take a look at why each of these guys will play well, starting with the guy who plays the best golf since Tiger Woods was cooking in the early to mid-2000s.

2024 US Open Field, Ranked

Parentheses indicate the golfer’s best result at the US Open

1. Scottie Scheffler (T2 in 2022): How’s that for another Scheffler statistic? He has lost to just nine golfers in his last three U.S. Opens. It’s hard to remember given how much he accomplished in that time, but he finished T7 at Torrey Pines, T2 at Brookline and 3rd a year ago at Los Angeles Country Club. The two gifts that really stand out when it comes to a US Open at this golf course are his underrated short game (currently ranked second in the world for 2024!) and his patience and course management. Both will be on full display and will likely be the reasons he won his third major this week at Pinehurst No.

2. Collin Morikawa (T4 in 2021): Morikawa has finished 2nd, 4th and 4th in his last three events and also has an excellent history at the US Open. He lost to three players at Torrey Pines, four at Brookline and 13 a year ago at LACC. One quiet story so far in 2024 is how good his short game and putting have been. He has gained strokes in both categories in four of his last six events, which is frightening given how accurately he hits on a course like this.

3. Rory McIlroy (won in 2011): Speaking of someone who got sneaky at the US Open, he was runner-up a year ago. He has five (!) consecutive top-five finishes here and is playing at a pretty similar pace to the last two years. It simply turns out that Rory’s excellence has been consumed by everything Scottie has done. McIlroy gets a lot of credit for a lot of different things, but I’m not sure he gets enough for the way he’s turned himself into a solid US Open player.

4. Xander Schauffele (T3 in 2019): How about this? Schauffele has never finished worse than T14 at the US Open in seven total attempts. He was never worse than T14! That includes six top 10s and five top 7s. He’s been outrageously good and is now coming into this victory fresh off the biggest win of his career at the PGA Championship. Traditionally, I’ve placed Schauffele at the bottom of the top 10 because of his inability to close out a major championship, but now that he has one under his belt, it’s not hard to see some of them slipping with how well-rounded his game is.

5. Ludvig Åberg (n/a): It’s shocking to think that as good as Åberg was as an amateur, this is his first US Open. He has been almost inconceivably good in his first year on the PGA Tour, with six top-10s and nine top-25s in 12 starts. I wonder if you want to enter major championships with experience (especially the US Open), but I’m leaning on how great he was at the Masters, where he generated 0.35 xWins, according to Data Golf. In other words, his score at Augusta National compared to the rest of the field was expected to beat 35% of the majors. And this was his first important appearance!

6. Bryson DeChambeau (earned 2020): Bryson and Pinehurst aren’t the match you’d expect from someone ranked #6 on this list, but he’s played well in the majors so far this season. He finished 6th at the Masters and 2nd at the US Open. The only question mark is what he does on Pinehurst’s difficult and fast greens. He says he will drive wedges into the banks and push them toward the hole, which is the opposite of what Martin Kaymer did when he toured the place in 2014 on his way to an eight-stroke victory. We’ll see if it works for DeChambeau.

7. Brooks Koepka (won in 2017 and 2018): Do I love how Koepka is playing in this event? No. Do I love how he’s played in the majors so far this year? Neither. Koepka gets every benefit of the doubt at the US Open, as he has two titles – and almost a third – so he has proven his worth in this arena. Openings are often less about physical ability and more about mental and emotional control. There haven’t been many guys better in those areas than Koepka over the last decade. I’m excited to see him work.

8. Tommy Fleetwood (2nd in 2018): This says less about Fleetwood being a true contender in this tournament and more about how few true contenders there are. Still, Fleetwood has three top-ranks in his last seven U.S. Open starts, including one just a year ago at LACC. He was built for the Open (both US and original) and hasn’t missed a cut since March 10th. He should compete here sometime this weekend.

9. Hideki Matsuyama (T2 in 2017): Matsuyama is being somewhat overlooked this week at Pinehurst, despite having three top-eight finishes in his last eight starts and a string of good showings at the US Open. One statistic that should encourage you if you pick Matsuyama? He’s been the best in the world on the green so far in 2024. That’s better than Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth – better than all of them.

10. Justin Thomas (T8 in 2020): I don’t know why, but I have a sneaky JT feeling this week. Golf has been up and down, but there have been a lot of good things: T5 at the RBC Heritage, T8 at the PGA Championship. He hasn’t done well so far this year, but perhaps that will be negated a little by a difficult, fast and wild golf course. His iron play remains elite — Thomas gained nearly two strokes of the field at Memorial on approach shots — and he tends to thrive in key environments.

11. Viktor Hovland (T12 in 2019): I have been everywhere in Hovland, mainly because he himself has been everywhere. Before the PGA Championship, I thought he might finish outside the top 70 at the FedEx Cup. After the PGA Championship, I thought he had a real chance to win a major this year. So he got kicked out of Memorial and I have no idea what to think. Certainly the ball striking is (and has been) good enough. The short game, however, remains to be seen. He’s one of the most interesting guys on the block for me this week.

12. Max Homa (T47 in 2022): He has a strange record at the US Open, with absolutely no success to hang his hat on. Homa missed four cuts in five games and was never in contention. It looked like he turned an important corner in the championship in April when he competed at Augusta National. Plus, he’s a great iron player, which will come in handy this week.

13. Jon Rahm (earned 2021): I don’t remember Rahm being this low on a list like this, coming into any course. I also don’t remember Rahm playing this poorly before entering any major tournament. His last five games have been like this.

• Masters: T45
• LIV Adelaide: T3
• LIV Singapore: T10
• PGA Championship: MC
• LIV Houston: WD

That doesn’t inspire confidence, although he has to stay on the roster because the cap hit is very, very high.

14. Matt Fitzpatrick (earned 2022): He had a similar season to JT in the sense that he was up and down and all over the place. However, he enters this event with a T5 at the Memorial and is obviously an excellent US Open player with a solid short game that could cheer him up this week.

15. Will Zalatoris (T2 in 2022): I’m not as worried about his average play lately because of how incredible he’s been in the majors throughout his career. In the last five US Opens, only Scheffler, Schauffele, McIlroy and Rahm have had better strokes gained than Zalatoris.

16. Tony Finau (5th in 2018): Finau has been spot on so far this year. He has gained strokes on approach in 12 of his 15 events and has placed in the top 20 in five of his last seven starts. I would be surprised if he doesn’t bounce back from his MC-MC-T32 run in the last three US Opens.

Who will win the US Open and what odds will surprise the golf world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected US Open leaderboardall from the model who has won 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.

17. Patrick Cantlay (T14 in 2023): I don’t have a lot of confidence in where Cantlay is with his game, but he’s never missed a US Open cut in eight total tries and has finished in the top 15 in each of the last three years. As with Morikawa and Schauffele, this event should be perfect for him, but it appears that all his work on the PGA Tour policy board is affecting his success on the golf course, as he is having arguably his worst season in the last eight.

18. Sahith Theegala (T27 in 2023): He is the definite electricity we saw at the PGA Championship. However, I’m worried that the driver might get a little wayward and not continue to have good luck in the desert and sandy areas. If he gets hot, though, Pinehurst will certainly support him.

19. Jordan Spieth (won in 2015): I almost left him off this list because of how poorly he is playing. I couldn’t do that, not with how he’s running the ball now and how magical he can be in any event. I didn’t think I’d say “well, the driver’s fine, it’s just everything else that needs help” about Spieth, but here we are. It’s true, however. This is the best riding season he’s ever had and he can’t stop missing cuts. Make it make sense.

20. Shane Lowry (T2 in 2016): Lowry has at times been a solid player at the U.S. Open and recently had a good round of golf with a T6 at the PGA Championship and no missed cuts since January. He also has an absolutely unclean short game, which should play well this week.

21. Wyndham Clark (earned in 2023): Clark had one of the strangest years I can remember. He beat Pebble Beach, nearly took Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass It is Harbor Town, but then he missed the cut at the majors and the Memorial. I have to include him here as the defending champion, who has also played good golf (at times), but I don’t do so with much confidence.

22. Sepp Straka (T28 in 2019): Why not us?! Straka has placed in the top eight in four of his last five stroke play events, and his iron play has been excellent. True, he’s not very far off the tee, and that can hurt him, but if the irons are marked, he’s a sneaky and fun pick to make some noise.

23. Cameron Smith (4th in 2023): Smith was incredible last year at LACC and finished T6 at this year’s Masters. He’s been pretty average since that finish at Augusta National, but like Lowry, his short game is magical and should win for him at Pinehurst.

24. Russell Henley (T13 in 2021): King of the team “makes every cut he looks at, but never fights to win.” Data Golf has Henley ranked 8th (!) in the world, and a lot of that is due to the fact he has only missed one cut so far in 2024 (The Players Championship). He played in one of the final doubles in 2021 at Torrey Pines, and this place is probably even better suited for him to do it again.