2024 U.S. Open picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win from betting field at Pinehurst No. 2

With the U.S. Open returning to second place at Pinehurst for the first time in a decade, the key question everyone is asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win this 124th national championship? With an extraordinary field of the world’s best professionals, the third major championship of 2024 is set to be an epic journey from Thursday’s first round to the presentation of the US Open Championship Trophy early Sunday evening.

There’s a three-headed monster at the top of the 2024 US Open field, while Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy are simply winning right now. Scheffler and Schauffele are the first two major winners of the year, while McIlroy remains in search of his first major prize in a decade. There’s no doubt that Scheffler is playing the best golf in the world right now – having won five of his last eight matches – but Schauffele and McIlroy are clearly in the second tier, above the rest of the pack.

Joining that trio near the top of the odds board are Collin Morikawa, a two-time major winner looking for the third leg of his Grand Slam bid, and Bryson DeChambeau, who posted career-best finishes at the Masters (T6) and in the PGA Championship (2nd) this season. Defending champion Wyndham Clark, despite his ups and downs this year, remains fourth in the Official World Golf Rankings, and a return to form could be possible even as he dominated a year ago.

There are plenty of golfers behind them who will certainly be in contention, including prodigy Ludvig Åberg and Brooks Koepka, and it will be interesting to see if the likes of Max Homa, Sahith Theegala and Viktor Hovland can find enough game to put pressure on the favorites. And there is the duo Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Woods has not played the weekend at the US Open since 2019 and has only made one cut since 2013. Mickelson, meanwhile, has finished 2nd or T2 at the US Open six times, most recently in 2013. He has not finished in the top 50 at the US Open since 2018, missing three cuts in that time.

So what’s going to happen in Pinehurst this week? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we try to project who will win – and what will happen – in one of golf’s most prestigious tournaments.

2024 US Open Expert Picks and Predictions

Kyle Porter, Senior Golf Writer

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (3-1): Who else? If every victory so far has made their season more historic, this one will make it the most historic. First golfer since Tiger Woods to win six times in one year, including a major. One of four players to win six times in a season since 1983. Third player this century to win the Masters and US Open in the same year. His gifts are plentiful, but the two most underrated – his short game and field management – ​​will be on display all week at Pinehurst as his season goes from tremendous to truly historic.

Sleeper – Will Zalatoris (80-1): Two top-six finishes in his last three US Opens, and Zalatoris is 80-1 to win the tournament? I know his golf hasn’t been stellar lately, but he has plenty of major championship history to lean on heading into the week. I think that 80-1 number is going to look silly on Friday afternoon.

Top 10 Blocks – Rory McIlroy: He has five consecutive top 10s in this event and is gaining nearly 2.25 strokes on the PGA Tour field average so far in 2024, according to Data Golf. That’s a wild number — we typically only see four or five players a year above 2.0 — that was destroyed by Scheffler’s year. Rory is playing excellent golf, but he’s not good enough to beat Scottie.

Star who definitely won’t win – Viktor Hovland: It’s very inconsistent right now for me. This seems like an insane choice after what he did at the PGA Championship, but the short game is still very much out of control, and he’s been low-key (for someone of his caliber) at the US Open.

Scottie Scheffler x Xander Schauffele x Rory McIlroy: Scheffler will win, McIlroy will make his top 10 and Schauffele – as we’ve seen so many times in the past – will take a step back after winning his first major. It’s really hard to stay focused right after beating the first one, and while I think the game will be fine in the long run, I don’t think it will be as good this week as the other two.

Tiger Woods vs Phil Mickelson: Tiger will make the cut here; Phil is not. This is the kind of place where Woods can think hard and use his extraordinary hands to make a lot of pars. I don’t see Mickelson thriving at Pinehurst, and I certainly don’t believe Tiger will compete – just that he can absolutely pass in a way he simply didn’t have a chance to do at the PGA Championship at Valhalla.

Surprise prediction – The route will not be as difficult as predicted: I think about this piece by Garrett Morrison from Fried Egg quite. While I’m hopeful we’ll get the quickest, crispiest greens imaginable, I’m doubtful we’ll achieve that at the USGA. And that’s okay. I just don’t want everyone to think — after Wyndham Clark said Monday that the greens are already at the limit — that the USGA will take them to (or maybe even take) the line like it has in the past.

Lowest round: 65 (-5)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner’s score on Sunday: 70 (E)

Patrick McDonald, golf writer

Winner – Hideki Matsuyama (50-1): Scheffler is more or less presumptive at this point, so let’s add a little more excitement to this topic. Matsuyama thrives in two areas that will be heavily tested at Pinehurst: on the approach and around the green. The former Masters champion ranks first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on the green and is among the leaders in terms of closers over 200 yards and bogey avoidance. He quelled any concerns about his lack of repeats since the Masters with a top-10 finish last week at the Memorial and has a solid US Open resume with a runner-up finish in 2017 and a top-five finish in 2022.

Sleeper – Russell Henley (100-1): Six players can claim to be in the top 20 in approach strokes gained and strokes gained on the green over the past three months, and Henley is one of them. Also among the most accurate drivers in the game, Henley will need to lean into Pinehurst’s firm, fast conditions and hopefully turn this par 70 into a slightly smaller ballpark. In my opinion, he is the most underrated player in the game and has a pair of top 15s in his last three US Opens to show for it.

Top 10 blocks – Xander Schauffele: Back to the well with this one. He comes into the US Open with nine consecutive top 20s and that’s all he’s done in this championship alone. In seven US Open starts, Schauffele has six top 10s, with his worst finish at The Country Club in the form of a T14 result. The tee-to-green game wasn’t up to par at Jack’s house, but it didn’t matter and he still found a way to finish in the top 10, as he will this week.

Definitely Won’t Win Star – Wyndham Clark: “Star” might be an exaggeration, but he is ranked No. 4 in the world and current US Open champion. Clark has been brutal in recent months, missing the cut at the Masters, the PGA Championship and most recently last week at the Memorial. Combine the lack of form with some additional commitments off the golf course and I can see the defending champion struggling again.

Scottie Scheffler x Xander Schauffele x Rory McIlroy: I will side with the Official World Golf Ranking on this one and follow their order. It appears that Scheffler’s floor right now is in the top three, while Schauffele’s floor is in the top 10. McIlroy is playing good golf – don’t get me wrong – but there are some deficiencies in his iron play that neither Scheffler nor Schauffele have at this point.

Tiger Woods vs Phil Mickelson: Coming into the season, I figured this would be Tiger’s best chance to at least show us something, as Pinehurst is a golf course that requires as much mental toughness as it does physical. A flat grounder that will play tight and fast, Pinehurst should be in Tiger’s wheelhouse and should allow him to see out the weekend. Meanwhile, Mickelson has been poor at LIV Golf and is a candidate to miss the cut.

Surprise prediction – No big winner for the first time: It may seem like a strange prediction, but the US Open was the first major for the last five winners. That streak hasn’t extended to six since 1973-78, and I don’t think this year will end the drought. Schauffele’s stint in the PGA Championship obviously helps the cause, but there are some potential concerns here with Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Åberg and Sahith Theegala.

Lowest round: 66 (-4)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner’s score on Sunday: 70 (E)

Who will win the US Open and what odds will surprise the golf world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected US Open leaderboardall from the model who has won 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.