2024 U.S. Open picks, predictions: Five trends to help determine this year’s winner at Pinehurst

Trends reigned supreme in the first two major championships of the season. Narrowing the Masters field to a handful of players, trends have identified Scottie Scheffler as the man to beat at Augusta National. At the PGA Championship last month, our trends pointed to Scheffler again – and he might have won if not for, well, you know – but he was joined by eventual champion Xander Schauffele, as well as runner-up Bryson DeChambeau in the final group. of five men.

While we’d love to promise similar success here, the 2024 US Open may be harder to crack – especially when you consider last year’s champion, Wyndham Clark. Although Clark had just won on the PGA Tour for the first time a month earlier at the Wells Fargo Championship, his major championship resume was lacking, to say the least. His best result before the 2023 US Open was a T75 at the 2021 PGA Championship.

Major pedigree will still be necessary, but the last five US Open winners were actually all first-time major champions. Add in the variable that is Pinehurst No. 2 itself and the waters continue to get muddier, as one of its three champions (Michael Campbell) had to go through sectional qualifying just to earn his place in the field in 2005.

As a result, it is more difficult to cut the field. After all, the US Open is “open” and available for anyone to win if they can get 72 holes of high-quality golf. With all this in mind, let’s look back at the 10 most recent US Open winners and identify what trends exist as we try to narrow the 156-player field to identify this year’s champion.

1. Official World Golf Ranking

The ratings have lost some accuracy and integrity amid the LIV Golf drama, but are still solid for points-receiving tours. Each of the last 10 winners has placed in the OWGR top 50, with the likes of Brooks Koepka (No. 22), Gary Woodland (No. 25), Martin Kaymer (No. 28) and Clark (No. 32) bringing in the share rear. Similar to the PGA Championship, the top 50 cutoff point for players on tours that to do accumulating OWGR seems like a good starting point.

Deleted: Non-LIV golfers outside the OWGR top 50, notably Tiger Woods, Alex Noren, Harris English, Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, Justin Rose, Tom Hoge, Cameron Davis

2. Changes in direction, what is at stake is not

The U.S. Open visits No. 2 Pinehurst for just the fourth time in the championship’s history. While we’ll see it a lot more often in the coming years, Pinehurst will be a bit of a mystery, with most of the field seeing it for the first time in competition. Regardless, quality has proven to be an important barometer in this particular championship. Nine of the last 10 champions have finished in the top 25, with Clark being the most outlier.

Deleted: Ludvig Åberg, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala, Sepp Straka, Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Chris Kirk, Nick Taylor, Akshay Bhatia, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Robert MacIntyre, Nicolai Hojgaard, Stephan Jaeger, Corey Conners, JT Poston, Eric Cole, David Puig , Dean Burmester, Adrian Meronk, Eugenio Chacarra

3. What have you done for me lately?

Great champions rarely appear without warning. Before his victory at Pinehurst, Kaymer reigned supreme at the Players Championship earlier that spring. He is among four previous champions to have won before capturing the US Open, with Jordan Spieth being the only man to do so multiple times before his triumph at Chambers Bay in 2015. In fact, all of the last 10 Open winners from the United States had at least one podium. finish on your resume during the calendar year.

Deleted: Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, Tom Kim, Lucas Glover, Si Woo Kim, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson

4. Major Championship Pedigree

Clark really broke that trend a season ago, with his best major result being T75, but before that, it was a steady climb for our winners. Kaymer, Spieth and Koepka are the only three who have been major champions, but guys like Dustin Johnson and Matthew Fitzpatrick have struggled. With all that said, nine of the last 10 winners have had at least one top-10 finish in a major championship.

Deleted: Byeong Hun An, Matthieu Pavon

5. Let’s get technical

We are down to just 26 players without touching a stat, but that won’t be the case for much longer. All of the last 10 champions averaged at least 0.75 strokes gained per round in the three months leading up to their victories. Spieth topped the group at +2.80 in 2015. Koepka (2018) and Jon Rahm also checked in north of +2.00 strokes gained per round, while Fitzpatrick (+1.96) and Clark (+1.93) have settled around the +1.95 average of the last 10 winners – the number we will use as a benchmark, much to the consternation of many recent great champions and many potential contenders.

Deleted: Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm (also withdrew), Brian Harman, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Denny McCarthy, Shane Lowry, Adam Hadwin, Min Woo Lee, Bryson DeChambeau, Will Zalatoris, Brooks Koepka, Austin Eckroat, Sergio Garcia, Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson

That leaves us with… five golfers

Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama

This is basically the same list as the PGA Championship with the only change being the addition of Morikawa and the dismissal of Bryson DeChambeau. The two-time major champion is the only player to finish in the top five in both championships, as he participated in the final doubleheader in the final round at Augusta National and Valhalla. A victory seems imminent after the duel with Scheffler at Memorial.

Speaking of Scheffler, his presence is a free bingo square right now. He continues to widen the gap between himself and the rest of the world and a second major in 2024 – and third overall – would surprise no one. Schauffele continues to show that he is the second best player in the world and can be playful after his PGA Championship victory.

McIlroy is still searching for his first major victory since 2014, but the US Open has proven to be his best major in recent years with five consecutive top 10s, including a runner-up finish in Los Angeles last season.

The group’s wild card and the only player in this group above 20-1 on the odds board is Matsuyama (50-1). He hasn’t played much since the Masters – only playing in the PGA Championship and the Memorial – but he was great in Jack’s place and proved himself capable on the big stage.

Who will win the US Open and what odds will surprise the golf world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected US Open leaderboardall from the model who has won 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.