2024 Open Championship odds, picks, field: Surprising predictions by golf model that nailed 13 majors

The Open Championship is always among golf’s toughest tests, and the margin for error will be slim again when Royal Troon Golf Club hosts the 2024 Open Championship from July 18-21. Every winner from 2013 to 2019 posted at least seven bogeys, but the last three winners finished with six or fewer. Brian Harman had six bogeys on the way to his victory at Royal Liverpool last year, stunning the Open Championship field. He is a 50-1 outside shot in the 2024 Open Championship odds, while world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the 5-1 favorite in the 2024 Open Championship field.

Bryson DeChambeau (11-1) defeated Rory McIlroy (13-2) at the US Open and they are among the top contenders for the 2024 Open Championship. DeChambeau has been the best player in the majors so far this season, but you should include it in your 2024 Open Championship prediction? Before locking in your 2024 Open Championship picks, be sure to see golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on a roll since the PGA Tour restarted in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, winning tournament after tournament.

This same model also nailed 13 majors over the weekend, including the 2024 Masters, its third consecutive Masters, and this year’s PGA Championship and US Open. Anyone who followed it saw massive returns.

Now with the Open Championship 2024 field closed, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times and the results were surprising. Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Open Championship predictions

A big surprise that the model expects at the 2024 Open: Rory McIlroy (13-2), the winner of the 2014 Open and one of the main favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even reach the top five. McIlroy’s 10-year major championship drought is well documented, which made his setbacks down the stretch at the US Open all the more painful. He missed several shots from within five feet over the final three holes, leading to a brutal second-place finish.

It will be difficult for McIlroy to overcome these lingering emotions in the final major of the year, especially as the Open Championship brings unique pressure for the Northern Irishman. He has finished outside the top 40 in two of his last four appearances in this tournament and did not place in the top 10 at the Masters or the PGA Championship earlier this season. McIlroy is outside the top 50 on the PGA Tour in GIR percentage, which is another reason the model is eliminating him in this year’s major final. See who else will disappear here.

Another surprise: Jon Rahm, with a 24-1 chance, has a good campaign for the title. He has a much better chance of winning it all than his odds suggest, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a big payday. Rahm had to skip the US Open due to an injury between his fourth toe and little toe that became infected. He told reporters that he could have played if necessary so that he could be healthy when the 2024 Open Championship arrived.

Rahm is a two-time major champion, having won the 2021 US Open and 2023 Masters. He is knocking on the door of the Open Championship title, finishing T3 in 2021 and T2 in 2023. Rahm has 12 top-10 finishes in his last 25 important holdings, and the model believes he will be a factor near the top of the leaderboard again next month. See who else can return here.

How to make picks for the 2024 Open Championship

The model also targets two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or better to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who supports these longshot hypotheses could hit big. You can only see the model choices here.

Who will win the 2024 Open Championship and which long shots will surprise the golf world? Check out the odds for the Open Championship 2024 and beyond below Visit SportsLine to see the Open Championship’s projected leaderboard, all from the model that has won 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and all three majors this year.

2024 Open Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 Open Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler 5-1
Rory McIlroy 13-2
Bryson DeChambeau 11-1
Xander Schauffele 14-1
Ludvig Aberg 14-1
Viktor Hovland 16-1
Collin Morikawa 16-1
Tommy Fleetwood 21-1
John Rahm 24-1
Shane Lowry 29-1
Brooks Koepka 30-1
Patrick Cantlay 31-1
Cameron Smith 31-1
Joaquin Niemann 33-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 34-1
Tony Finau 34-1
Max Homa 38-1
Tom Kim 40-1
Tyrrell Hatton 40-1
Justin Thomas 41-1
Will Zalatoris 41-1
Hideki Matsuyama 42-1
Robert Macintyre 45-1
Jordan Spieth 47-1
Cameron Young 50-1
Jason Day 50-1
Brian Harman 50-1
Dustin Johnson 50-1
Wyndham Clark 50-1
Min Woo Lee 55-1
Sam burns 65-1
Louis Oosthuizen 65-1
Sahith Theegala 65-1
Patrick Reed 65-1
Sung-Jae I’m 65-1
Corey Conners 65-1
Si Woo Kim 80-1
Adam Scott 80-1
Rickie Fowler 80-1
Justin Rosa 100-1
Thomas Detry 100-1
Adrian Meronk 100-1
Tiger Woods 100-1
Padraig Harrington 110-1
Ryan Fox 110-1
Seamus Power 120-1
Kurt Kitayama 120-1
Russell Henley 120-1
Jordan Smith 120-1
Talor Gooch 120-1
Sergio Garcia 120-1
Matthew Jordan 120-1
Tom Hoge 140-1
Billy Horschel 140-1
Alex Noren 140-1
Phil Mickelson 150-1
Gary Woodland 150-1
Myth Pereira 160-1
JT Poston 170-1
Keegan Bradley 170-1
Thomas Pieters 170-1
Abraham Ancer 170-1
Matt Wallace 170-1
Sam Bennett 210-1
Keith Mitchell 210-1
Harris English 210-1
Danny Willett 210-1
Alex Fitzpatrick 210-1
Chris Kirk 210-1
Taylor Moore 280-1
Stewart Kink 300-1
Charles Schwarzel 300-1