Braves vs. Dodgers series: What to know as MLB’s two highest-scoring teams square off this weekend

Friday night at Dodger Stadium, two of the best teams in baseball – arguably the two most talented teams in baseball – will begin a three-game series as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves. The Braves enter play on Friday with the best record in baseball. The Dodgers aren’t far behind them.

Here’s the top of the MLB standings heading into this weekend’s series:

1. Atlanta Braves: 20-9
2. Philadelphia Phillies: 21-11 (0.5GB)
3. Cleveland Guardians: 20-11 (1GB)
4. Baltimore Orioles: 20-11 (1GB)
5. Milwaukee Brewers: 19-11 (1.5GB)
6. Los Angeles Dodgers: 20-13 (2GB)

“I love going to Dodger Stadium,” Braves third baseman Austin Riley told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution earlier this week. “It’s a playoff atmosphere all the time. They’re a very good club, so it’s going to be another battle. We’re all looking forward to it. So enjoy the day off (Thursday) and then we’ll get after it.”

This is the first meeting of 2024 between these two National League powerhouses. They will play the second leg of the season series, a four-game series at Truist Park, September 13-16. Here are the details on the Braves vs. Braves series. This weekend’s Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. Select games can be streamed on fuboTV (Try for free).

The Dodgers are returning home after a 7-2 road trip through Washington, Toronto and Arizona. The Braves are three games into a six-game West Coast upset. They released two of the three in Seattle earlier this week. Games mean a lot in early May, but this will be a small litmus test for both teams. Good chance to see how you stack up against the best.

Here are now four things you should know ahead of the Braves vs. Braves series. This weekend’s Dodgers, with a prediction included, why not?

These Are the Highest-Scoring Teams in Baseball

In terms of runs per game, these are the two best offenses in the sport. The Braves are averaging 5.41 runs per game, the most in baseball, and the Dodgers are right behind them at 5.36 runs per game. The MLB average is 4.33 runs per game early on, so the Braves and Dodgers are both a full run north of the average, offensively.

Interestingly, the Braves lead baseball in runs per game despite scoring in double figures just once in 29 games. They picked up 12 spots on the Phillies in the second game of the season and have yet to score more than nine runs in a game since. The Dodgers have scored double-digit runs four times, by comparison, and 16 of the other 29 teams have multiple games with more than 10 runs.

The Braves may not score double-digit runs often, but they have scored at least five runs in 18 of their 29 games, or 62%. That’s the highest rate in baseball. It’s a consistent offensive attack. One who doesn’t put up a crooked number that often, but who locks in 5-6 runs on the board every night. His six games with three or fewer runs are the fewest in baseball.

Atlanta’s Big Three got off to a slow start

Atlanta leads baseball in runs per game, although its three MVP candidates — Matt Olson, Austin Riley and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. — have started the season slowly, at least by their usual standards. Marcell Ozuna led the attack and Travis d’Arnaud was great in place of the injured Sean Murphy.

Here’s what the Braves’ big three are doing 29 games into their season:

Acuña is 13-of-14 on stolen base attempts, so while he’s well below his career standards, he’s making an impact on the bases. Still, these three did not perform as expected. They did not go badmore like the average, but the average is a big step up for three players who are in the MVP conversation season after season.

It’s a testament to the Braves and their depth that Acuña, Olson and Riley have performed so far below their standards and still lead the league in runs per game. Almost any other team would be sunk if their three best players performed like that. Once these three get on track, forget it. The Braves will be an offensive juggernaut.

The Dodgers have some bullpen issues

The Dodgers have 11 pitchers on the injured list, close to a full pitching staff, and among those injured are reliable relievers Ryan Brasier (calf strain), Brusdar Graterol (shoulder inflammation) and Blake Treinen (bruised lung). Los Angeles has a high-leverage guy at blocking in Evan Phillips. The setup team behind him has been hit or miss in recent weeks.

Here are the veterans that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has leaned on to fill the gap between the starter and Phillips:

Hudson’s strikeout and walk rates are exceptional, but he is alarmingly home run prone. How long will Vesia maintain a sub-2.00 ERA with that walk rate (12 walks in 15 1/3 innings)? Kelly’s game seems designed specifically to shake up fans. He puts so many runners on base while pitching mostly in close games. Things could get dangerous on Phillips’ front.

Shutdowns and meltdowns are a fun little metric. Shutouts are appearances of relief that increase the team’s probability of winning by at least 6%. Meltdowns are the opposite. They decrease the team’s probability of winning by at least 6%. The Dodgers have the 16th most shutouts and the 10th most meltdowns. His 1.6 SD/MD ratio is 16th in baseball and one of the worst among expected prospects. (The Braves are seventh with an SD/MD ratio of 2.5.)

The Dodgers are smart and resourceful and I’m sure they will figure out their bullpen in the coming weeks and months. Right now, though, yes, things can get dicey mid-shift. The innings are excellent and Phillips is very good at the end of the game. The middle few innings are when things get interesting and the Braves could take advantage this weekend.

Who’s hot, who’s not

Baseball is a sport of hot and cold tides. Daily and weekly consistency is a myth. As such, several players enter this weekend’s series swinging the bat better than others. Here are the Braves’ best hitters over the last 14 days:

d’Arnaud had a three-homer game on April 19, which skews the chart numbers a bit, although he is 8-for-22 (.364) with two homers in the 10 games since. He’s really poised outside of the three-homer game. Ozuna has been one of the best hitters in the game this year, so much so that these numbers from the last two weeks represent a step below for him.

On the other hand, Olson (.105/.255/.132) and Riley (.156/.269/.200) have been really bad the last two weeks, as has Jarred Kelenic (.222/.276/.259). Kelenic was 14-for-35 (.400) in his first 13 games and all the talk was about how good he looked thanks to his swing changes. He is now 6-for-31 (.194) in 10 games since. Seattle Mariners fans know this story well.

Now, here are three Dodgers entering the weekend swinging the bat well:

Betts has been the best player in baseball this season, and of course Freddie Freeman (.318/.446/.500) and Shohei Ohtani (.289/.396/.578) have also been great the last two weeks. Few teams can match Atlanta’s Big Three, but the Dodgers are one of them. Pages (pronounced PAH-hez) was called up on April 16 to add some strength to the back end of the lineup, and he delivered.

James Outman (.125/.160/.167 over the past two weeks) is losing playing time to Pages and Teoscar Hernández (.217/.308/.326 over the past two weeks) has cooled off after a hot start. The Dodgers are right there with the Braves offensively, and coming into this series, they are their best hitters and play better than Atlanta’s best hitters.

Prediction

Let the record show I got my Orioles vs. Yankees prediction right earlier this week, until choosing which of the four games the O’s would lose. For this weekend, I will say the Braves win two of three, with the Dodgers facing the Glasnow vs. Fried has been looking really good lately, and I think this is the weekend Acuña rediscovers his power stroke. It was predicted.