Brandon Brown
Juan Soto’s time with the New York Yankees has been great so far, since they acquired him in a blockbuster seven-player trade in December with the San Diego Padres. While Soto’s high level of production has raised the Yankees’ hopes of a bounce-back season in 2024, it has also increased the pressure and angst surrounding Soto’s future. That future is uncertain because Soto is scheduled for free agency next offseason, and the expectation is that he will exercise those rights.
Speaking of these very interconnected stories, Jon Heyman of the New York Post asked Soto on Saturday if he wants to stay with the Yankees beyond the current season. To this question, Soto responded diplomatically:
“I mean, right now I’m still learning the team. You can’t tell a month into the season. You have to see how it goes by the end of the season.”
…
“I really enjoyed it. It was a great experience. It’s a great group of guys. We all feel comfortable playing for each other. It’s been great so far.”
Standard answer, moderate reason for Yankee partisan optimism, or a little of both? You decide. The working assumption, though, is that Soto will test the free agent market after the current season. He’s a client of Scott Boras, and Boras’ superstar clients tend to want to get to market as quickly as possible. Furthermore, Soto early in his career turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension offer from the Nationals, which strongly suggests a commitment to reaching free agency. The Padres’ efforts to sign Soto after acquiring him from the Nats also failed, which in part led to the trade with the Yankees.
Of course, in the seemingly very likely event Soto hits the market, all is not lost in the Bronx. You may remember that Yankees slugger Aaron Judge hit free agency and took the Giants very seriously before finally signing a nine-year, $360 million pact that brought him back to the Yanks. In terms of ability to spend on MLBonly the Dodgers can compare to the Yankees, so when it comes to securing Soto’s services beyond the current season, it’s largely a matter of will on the part of owner Hal Steinbrenner.
So far, Soto is making the most of his market-defining year, even if his Yankee teammates in the lineup aren’t doing their part just yet. Heading into Sunday’s slate, Soto sports a 2024 slash line of .318/.425/.561 with eight homers and an MLB-leading 26 walks (versus 21 strikeouts). The durable Soto has also played in every game thus far. And while the sample size is small, he also showed significantly improved defensive metrics. Since he’s a front-line producer, it’s easy to forget that Soto is still only 25 years old. He will be exceptionally young as free agents go and will (presumably) enter the market as one of the biggest “power and patience” hitters in the game today.
Now for the rest of the Yankees. Despite Soto’s overwhelming contributions, the Yankees’ offense as a whole has been a bit disappointing thus far. This is due to Judge’s uncharacteristically slow start and the regression of some key bats who were on the rise in the first few weeks of 2024. It’s not a hopeless situation – the Yankees are now 10th in MLB in runs scored and eighth in OPS – but it is timid in relation to what is expected from a lineup that features Soto, Judge and some promising young talents. Framed another way, Yankee hitters not named Juan Soto this season have combined for a slash line of .235/.318/.373, which is far from ideal.
That said, the Yankees are currently in playoff position, just one game behind the first-place Orioles, and on pace for 102 wins. Sports Line, on a related topic, now gives the Yanks an 88.5% chance of making the postseason. If all of this holds, then Soto will at least get a taste of playoff baseball in the Bronx, and that could be a useful foundation for the Yankees when it comes to Soto’s future beyond 2024.
