Brandon Brown
The Atlanta Braves haven’t been themselves lately. They have lost two consecutive series, the most recent of which was a sweep of their National League counterparts the Dodgers. At the same time, they recently ceded first place in the NL East to the Phillies. It is the first time they have been out of first place in the category since April 2nd of last year. On related matters, our Matt Snyder knocked them out of the top spot in his most recent Power Rankings.
Let’s not exaggerate the terrible nature of things. The Braves heading into Monday’s off day are still 20-12, which puts them on a 101-win pace. Additionally, SportsLine gives them a 98.3% chance of making the playoffs and better than 50-50 odds of defending the Phillies for the division title. That said, the Braves haven’t been themselves lately, and there are reasons for that, some of which may go beyond their current fear. Let’s take a quick look at them.
1. Top hitters have not yet reached expected levels
The 2023 Braves were an offensive powerhouse. They led the league in runs scored and OPS and batted a remarkable .276/.344/.501 as a team. Ten players reached double figures in home runs, and another, Kevin Pillar, had nine. As a team, they surpassed 300 home runs for the season. So far in 2024, however, some of the shine has gone out of the lineup, and that’s largely due to the uncharacteristic struggles of the lineup’s three fulcrums — outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., first baseman Matt Olson and first baseman from third baseman Austin Riley.
In Acuña’s case, he won the NL MVP award last season thanks to his .337/.416/.596 slash line, 41 homers and 73 stolen bases. By now, in 2024, however, Acuña’s power stroke has disappeared. Right now, he’s batting just .362 with two homers in 32 games played. What is perhaps most troubling is that Acuña’s struggles were not undeserved.
If you look at the advanced offensive metric Weighted On-Base Average, or wOBA, Acuña’s .340 number isn’t bad, but it’s also far from what we expect from him. We can evaluate the quality of contact to arrive at a hitter’s expected wOBA, or xwOBA, to get an idea of whether his performance might be driven by luck, good or bad. In Acuña’s case, his current xwOBA is .340 – or exactly the same as his actual wOBA. Maybe his struggles are the residue of the small sample, but his struggles are not illusory. Dig a little deeper and you’ll find that Acuña’s contact quality metrics have declined. He’s not hitting the ball as hard as he did last season, and his ground ball percentage has increased. He’s not “throwing” the ball as well as he has in recent years, and his performance against fastballs–a key ability in any hitter–has degraded significantly. Acuña’s contact numbers, in camps inside and outside the zone, have also decreased.
Lest we get too dramatic here, Acuña has still been an above-average producer, and that’s not to mention his immense value on the bases. So far, though, he’s not even remotely close to peak level, and that’s hurt Atlanta’s offense.
As for Olson, he’s coming off a 2023 campaign in which he hit a franchise-record 54 home runs. This season, however, he has only hit three homers, which puts him on pace for 15 over the entire year. At some point, however, Olson thinks about turning on a heater. Unlike Acuña, there is reason to believe that bad luck is the driver. Olson’s quality of contact remains at the top of the scale, and his expected hitting percentage is higher than his actual hitting percentage by more than 100 points. Likewise, Olson’s expected hit against fastballs is more than 100 points higher than his actual number. Going back to wOBA and xwOBA, Olson’s xwOBA is a whopping 67 points higher than his actual wOBA. No, he won’t hit 54 homers again — 2023 will likely be the year of his career he’ll never achieve again — but he should be back to being a top-line power threat soon.
So where does Riley fall? Last year, he racked up 72 extra-base hits and 328 total bases en route to finishing in the top 10 in NL MVP voting for the third consecutive year. This year, however, he is batting under .400 with just three home runs (yes, this trio has combined for just eight home runs so far in 2024). Well organized, it is a compromise between Olson’s misfortune and Acuña’s more troubling underlying profile. While Riley’s quality of contact is down from last year, he’s still solidly above league standards, and he’s also had some bad luck (though not quite at Olson’s level). Riley’s expected hitting is 65 points above his actual mark, and his xwOBA is 22 points north of his wOBA. He’s still destroying fastballs, but overall he’s not punishing the ball at 2021-23 levels.
So… worrying? Early season noise? Part of Column A, part of Column B? All of that remains to be seen, but the Braves need more from this center troika if they want to put runs on the board at their usual levels.
2. Two of its biggest stars are injured
We’re talking, of course, about ace Spencer Strider and All-Star catcher Sean Murphy. In Strider’s case, the young right-hander has been out since early April and will not play again this season after undergoing surgery to treat a UCL injury in his pitching elbow. Losing that arm is a blow to any team, even the Braves. That’s because Strider is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues when he’s healthy. In 67 big league games, including 54 starts, he accumulated a 3.47 ERA (124 ERA+) and a 4.54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. From 2022-23, he struck out over 37% of opposing hitters, which is a sky-high number for a starting pitcher. Strider finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting last season while making his first career All-Star Game. Strider’s absence will be deeply felt if, say, Chris Sale has semi-usual health issues or Charlie Morton at age 40 sees some decline or Reynaldo Lopez regresses to something closer to career norms.
Elsewhere, Murphy has developed into one of the best combinations of offensive production and defensive skills behind the plate among the current catcher guild. Last season he deservedly made his first All-Star team, but in 2024 he was limited to just one game because of an oblique strain. While stalwart backup catcher Travis d’Arnaud has filled in more than ably, Murphy’s broad skill base is arguably missed. Fortunately for the Braves, Murphy appears to be in the final stages of his recovery. When his return arrives, probably soon, he will be most welcome.
3. It’s just one of those things
Hey, it’s baseball. Even the best teams go through periods of struggle. The Braves won 104 games last season but suffered a four-game skid at one point. On pace to win 101 games in 2022, the Braves were four games under .500 through May 31. On the other end of the continuum, the A’s last season lost 112 games but managed to win seven straight games at one point. The season is a marathon and, especially in a sport so prone to random results, there are natural periods of struggle and prosperity.
Let’s also repeat that the Braves are on pace for 101 wins, and let’s note that the Phillies will be without their eight-cylinder Trea Turner for at least six weeks because of a pulled muscle. Therein lies the opportunity for the Braves, who, it should be noted, trail Philly by just 2 1/2 games.
There are concerns, especially with Acuña’s below-the-surface metrics and when it comes to rotation depth, but the Braves are probably still the Braves in the most important forward-thinking sense.
