Brandon Brown
Six weeks into the 2024 season, the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees have pulled away somewhat from the rest of the AL East. The O’s and Yankees are separated by one game in the standings, or actually two half games since they have the same number of wins, but the Yankees have played two more games.
Here are the AL East standings as of Tuesday morning:
- Baltimore Orioles: 23-11
- New York Yankees: 23-13 (1GB)
- Boston Red Sox: 19-16 (4.5GB)
- Tampa Bay Rays: 18-18 (6GB)
- Toronto Blue Jays: 16-19 (7.5GB)
The Orioles sitting atop the AL East is no surprise. They won 101 games and the division last year, Corbin Burnes added, and their young players have another year of experience. If the O’s had gotten off to a slow start this season, it would have been a surprise, though not necessarily a reason to panic. Instead, they are doing exactly what they were expected to do.
The Yankees went 82-80 a year ago, their worst record in three decades. They then added Juan Soto over the winter, and also Marcus Stroman and Alex Verdugo. In fact, we haven’t seen the fully operational version of the Yankees yet because Aaron Judge is hitting his stride at the plate, and reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole has yet to pitch due to an elbow injury.
As for the rest of the AL East, the Red Sox surprised everyone with their elite run prevention, although it was tough sledding for the Blue Jays and Rays. The Orioles and Yankees seem like the cream of the crop in the AL East (in that order), but the remaining three clubs should not be discounted. That’s why it’s still too early to call the AL East a two-team race.
1. The Red Sox are better than expected
Unlike the Blue Jays and Rays, Boston’s plus-41 run differential is very good and essentially identical to that of the Yankees (plus-42), and a win or two away from Baltimore (plus-55). The Red Sox have a 2.61 ERA, the best in baseball, and that comes just a year after finishing 21st with a 4.79 ERA. New pitching coach Andrew Bailey has revamped the team’s pitching approach.
That league-leading 2.61 ERA is a bit misleading because unearned runs count, and the Red Sox lead baseball with 30 unearned runs allowed, seven more (30% more!) than any other team. Their defense, especially in the infield after Trevor Story’s injury, is weak. That said, the Red Sox are still excellent when you look at total runs allowed per game:
- Seattle Mariners: 3.26
- Kansas City Royals: 3.31
- New York Yankees: 3.44
- Boston Red Sox: 3.46
- Cleveland Guardians: 3.60
- Baltimore Orioles: 3.68
Therein lies the kicker: Baltimore and the Yankees are also elite run-preventing teams, and their offenses are more fearsome, especially with Story and Triston Casas out for long-term injuries. That said, the Red Sox are averaging a healthy 5.00 runs per game since Casas was injured, so the offense is no pushover. Rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu has been sneakily great.
Nick Pivetta is expected to return this week and Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock aren’t too far away either, so the rotation is nearly complete. In short, when you prevent runs as well as the Red Sox, you have a chance to win almost every night. This team has the talent for unexpectedly great seasons. All it takes is a good three or four week run to make the Orioles and Yankees sweat.
2. Tampa’s best hitters are starting to get on track
It’s hard to believe it’s May 7th and Randy Arozarena and Yandy Díaz are hitting .193/.292/.293 in 301 games. A year ago, these two slashed .291/.386/.472 together, with Díaz winning the AL batting title. This year, they are among the least productive everyday players in the major leagues. It’s shocking, really.
However, there are indications that the two are emerging from their early-season slumps. Last weekend, Díaz had three consecutive multi-hit games in a win over the New York Mets, and Arozarena went deep twice in the series. That included a two-out, two-strike outburst against Edwin Díaz in the ninth inning on Sunday. Arozarena arrived at the base three times on Monday.
Isaac Paredes is singing along with his “pull everything for a home run” approach, new additions Richie Palacios and Ben Rortvedt were pleasant surprises, Josh Lowe just came off the injured list and Brandon Lowe (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment shortly . Get Arozarena and Díaz back on track and the Rays will be cooking offensively.
Pitch, however, is a much bigger issue. Tampa is allowing 5.09 runs per game, fifth-most in baseball, and other than Taj Bradley and Shane Baz, who just began a rehab assignment, there isn’t much help on the horizon. Shane McClanahan will miss the season due to Tommy John surgery and Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs are not expected to return from elbow procedures until the second half.
History says the Rays will lose more pitchers to injuries — the Rays are great at a lot of things, but keeping pitchers healthy isn’t one of them — and history also says the Rays will figure it out. This time last year, the bullpen was a major concern and you would have been ridiculed for suggesting that Zack Littell could be a No. 3 starter. So the Rays did what the Rays do.
Tampa has earned the benefit of the doubt and shouldn’t be ruled out even a month and a half into the season. Arozarena and Díaz show signs of life and the board has shown that, over time, they will be able to assemble a team of top-notch pitchers. They have a lot of work to do, no doubt, but the first step (Arozarena and Díaz starting to hit) appears to be underway.
3. It’s May 7th, stupid
Yes, I’m aware of that. Approximately 20% of the regular season has already been played and that leaves, oh, 130 more games on the schedule. Last May 7, the Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres were all in postseason position. Things didn’t go well for them the rest of the way. The Houston Astros were .500 and looked like their reign on the AL West was ending.
I will say that unlike the Rays and Red Sox, the Blue Jays appear to be in serious trouble. They are among the bottom 10 teams in runs scored per game and runs allowed per game, are mostly healthy, and don’t have much help to look forward to at Triple-A. If there’s an AL East team that should be worried (as it really is, really worried), it’s Toronto.
That said, it’s only May 7, and these AL East teams have proven too good and resourceful to write them off with so much season still to go. The Orioles and Yankees started the season very well, the others not so much, but there is still a lot of time to change the narrative and change the standings.
