Brandon Brown
The Houston Astros were defeated on Tuesday night, 10-3, by the New York Yankees, with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander being defeated for seven runs on eight hits in five innings.
Given how the 2024 season is going for the Astros, it wasn’t entirely shocking. The loss dropped them to 12-23, good for last place in the AL West — a division that includes a team that lost 112 games last season and another that lost Shohei Ohtani in the offseason (and Mike Trout during this season).
In fact, the only teams that have a worse record in all of baseball are the scum: White Sox, Rockies, and Marlins. The Marlins have already sold a key piece with the trade of Luis Arraez to the Padres. Since both are on pace to lose more than 120 games (for real), we can expect both the Rockies and White Sox to be sellers this season as well.
The Astros, meanwhile, are on pace now to finish 56-106. If this sounds familiar, that was the Astros’ record in 2011, the first of three straight, woeful seasons before the tide began to turn for the franchise.
If things continue like this, the Astros could very well be sellers this season.
General manager Dana Brown was asked Tuesday if he could foresee a scenario in which that thought comes to fruition. He didn’t want to hear about it.
“Not him said on MLB Network. “No, I can’t imagine that. This club is too good.”
On the one hand, you have to agree with Brown. Note that I said above that the tide has turned for the franchise after the terrible rebuilding years over a decade ago. They have now made the ALCS an impressive seven consecutive seasons, a streak that includes four AL pennants and two World Series championships. They were one game away from the World Series last season and returned with a very similar roster this season.
Knowing this, the general manager shouldn’t be ready to pull the trigger on a fire sale just 35 games into the season.
However, we do not need to be tied to the same mindset. We can definitely explore whether or not the Astros are really that bad and then delve further into “what if they are sellers?” territory. Let’s do just that.
Are they so bad?
It might be crazy to judge teams based on run differential early in the season (for example, notice that the Cubs lost a game 17-0, totally destroying the curve for a while), but the Astros’ run differential of -27 says they should be around 15-20 instead of 12-23. I suppose that’s a better sign than the actual record, but 15-20 isn’t exactly good. The caveats about small samples remain in play, but Fangraph’s “BaseRuns” has the Astros at -4, which indicates they played more like a 16-19 team than their actual record. Again, better, but not good – and those 23 defeats in 35 games are accumulated and cannot be recovered.
We could take a look at the projection systems and see that they still have a good chance of making the playoffs. SportsLine finished with 87-75 and a 47.1% chance of making the postseason. You don’t sell with those odds.
If we look at the personnel, we can try to find players who can change the situation. Jose Altuve has been amazing, so it’s not him. Kyle Tucker is also having an excellent season. Yordan Alvarez isn’t batting well for average (.248), but he’s currently posting a 123 OPS+, so while there’s room for growth, we shouldn’t expect him to fully explode.
Alex Bregman is the one to watch. He’s slashing .195/.275/.260 and we know with his track record he’s much better than that.
Overall, on offense, things can happen in a more opportune way. They rank first in the AL in batting average, second in on-base percentage, third in hits and eighth in runs. The delay in executions can be partly attributed to sequencing or, as noted a second ago, timing. They are batting .225/.313/.331 with runners in scoring position and two outs, leaving them stranded with 253 runners – or more than seven per game.
One would expect things to change on that front.
In the rotation, they dealt with injuries. Verlander made just four appearances. Framber Valdez also only had four. Cristian Javier hit the IL after four. Hunter Brown and JP France were bad in a combined 12 games, although Ronel Blanco was a surprising bright spot.
The bullpen has been a problem with Josh Hader (6.14 ERA) and Ryan Pressly (5.27) being awful after entering the season as what should have been the most dominant back-end duo in baseball.
Overall, the Astros’ 4.92 ERA is 14th out of 15 AL teams.
It is very reasonable to conclude that players like Bregman, Alvarez, Verlander, Valdez, Hader and Pressly recover as the offense begins to hit better in so-called clutch situations. This would then right the proverbial ship and Brown would be correct in not imagining being a salesman.
Still, there is a world where the team plays like this all season long. If that’s the case…
What if they sell?
Verlander has a $35 million option for next season, which will kick in if he throws 140 innings this season and is already on the injured list. He might not make it, and if he doesn’t, he will hit free agency after a year. If he is healthy in July and the Astros are out, he will absolutely be discussed in trade rumors. It’s possible there are teams willing to pay him that fee next season or at least split it in some way with the Astros. And again, there’s no guarantee he’ll make it to 140.
Bregman is a free agent after this season, so he would be a rental and could be very attractive. I know he’s not hitting right now, but he’s 30 years old and posted 4.9 WAR last season. Teams would line up to talk to the Astros about him.
There is a $14 million mutual option on Pressly for next season, otherwise he would be a free agent. Not only would that be attractive to potential bullpen buyers, but he would certainly love the chance to return to closing duties after the Astros demoted him when they signed Hader.
Speaking of the bullpen, Kendall Graveman (free agent after this season) and Rafael Montero (free agent after 2025) could also go.
These are all pieces the Astros could move without affecting their plans to compete again in 2025.
For now, it doesn’t matter much. However, if the Astros continue to lose about 2/3 of their games, it will be worth watching.
