How good can Paul Skenes be? What to know about Pirates prospect and his 100 mph fastball before MLB debut

Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in last summer’s draft out of LSU, became the subject of weekly check-ins for the first month or so of the season. Everyone who saw Skenes, and who fell in love with his extreme brand of power shot, had the same question in mind: When, oh when, will the Pirates promote him? We received the official response on Wednesday.

Skenes is being called up by the Pirates and will make his MLB debut on Saturday against the Cubs.

Skenes has made seven starts at Triple-A this year, compiling a 0.99 ERA and a 5.63 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 27 1/3 innings. He has struck out 42.9% of the batters he has faced so far this season, suggesting he is more than ready for his promotion.

To honor Skenes’ call-up and satisfy everyone’s fascination with him, we answer four pertinent questions about him and his game below. These questions include what makes him so notable, why he has remained in the majors, and when we think he will debut. Now let’s get down to business.

1. What makes Skenes so remarkable?

In our opinion, Skenes’ mainstream appeal can be attributed to a confluence of factors. He plays with a lot of strength. He was the No. 1 pick in last summer’s draft after playing for a prestigious program. He plays with a lot of strength. He is part of a power couple. And did we notice that he throws very hard? Speed ​​sells, baby; always has been, always will be.

Additionally, Skenes was a polarizing prospect in last summer’s draft. CBS Sports spoke to several scouts and analysts who didn’t consider him the top pick at the top of the draft for reasons we outlined at the time:

Skenes is an imposing figure with velocity in the upper 90s and a strikeout rate approaching 48% against SEC hitters. About 15 years ago, that would have been enough to put him at the top of this list (and it’s believed he could go as high as second overall, with multiple sources identifying him as the Nationals’ type of pitcher). Industry professionals are convinced that ball tracking data has improved their ability to evaluate pitches. These advances have made Skenes a controversial figure, with scouts and analysts who spoke to CBS Sports expressing reservations about his fastball shape. The short version is that your four-seam machine has minimal separation between the induced vertical rupture and the horizontal rupture, placing it in the “dead zone.” The fear is that Skenes’ four-seamer will be minimized, causing him to underperform draft night expectations. Let’s look at the case of Nathan Eovaldi, another right-hander with big arms and minimal separation; Before this year, opponents had hit .300 or better against his fastball in three consecutive seasons. Skenes’ speed could mitigate some of the effect, and it’s possible his employer could help him find better form, or have him switch to his sinker (his current one features more run than Dustin May’s). Consider the probabilistic analysis argument that arises whenever a pitcher is part of a class full of good hitters, which is why he is below what you might expect, even if he still makes it to second place.

Either way, the Pirates put Skenes first, suggesting they weren’t too concerned about his perceived flaws. Fair. We mention the subject only because it is such an undeniable part of contemporary human life that friction, even just the possibility of it, attracts attention. We think Skenes would have captured the collective imagination anyway – have you heard he throws really hard? – but consider this extra fuel in the flame.

2. Anything else to know about Skenes’ arsenal?

First, let’s introduce Skenes’ arsenal. So far this season, he’s thrown what amounts to five pitches: a four-seam fastball, a sinker and a slider form the backbone of his repertoire. It’s also scattered across a few changes and obstacles, but even combined they represent less than 10% of its usage, so we’ll ignore them in this section.

Skenes’ four-seam boat averages 100 mph, which would make him the hottest among beginners. The only pitcher to throw 50 or more four-seam pitches this season and Skenes’ higher average velocity is Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller (100.8 mph). The fact that Skenes is able to maintain so much heat is a testament to how special he is physically.

We mentioned above that Skenes’ fastball shape raised some eyebrows. Previous research has found that fastballs with similar vertical and horizontal breaks are easier for hitters to track, causing them to play less effectively than expected. Skenes’ fastball averaged 13.4 inches of induced vertical break and 14.3 inches of horizontal break, providing little separation between the two planes.

(Stats on Skenes’ first six MiLB starts this year)

Will it matter? There is a school of thought that says no, because of Skenes’ elite speed and above-average control. There’s also a school of thought that says yes – just look at Hunter Greene and Nathan Eovaldi, two power right-handers who have had solid careers while, perhaps, underperforming compared to the flashy velocity they generate on their fastballs. This first school of thought has been correct so far. We can only wait and see if that happens in the big leagues.

Skenes’ most-used secondary pitch is an 86.5 mph slider that served as his leadoff pitch at LSU. It generates about seven inches of glove-side rupture and about seven inches of induced vertical rupture. If you are looking for a MLB By comparison, these numbers are similar to what Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot generates on his own slider.

Then there’s the sinker, a new addition to his arsenal that has inspired comparisons to Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran’s splinker – which is a splitter-sinker hybrid. Some pitch classification models call this a divisor; Skenes told our Matt Snyder that it’s just a sinker in his mind.

Whatever you call it, the throw generates 15 inches of lateral arm breakage and 0.6 inches of induced vertical breakage. There are exactly three pitchers who throw sinkers with at least 14 inches of lateral arm break and two inches or less of induced vertical break: Yannier Cano, Tanner Houck and Logan Webb. It’s good company to keep.

To state the obvious, having three quality proposals is better than having two quality proposals. We think it’s fair to assume that Skenes’ sinker changes the dynamics of his arsenal in a way that should help mitigate any (if any) detrimental effects his four-seam form has on his effectiveness. He now has three legitimate weapons to use, each of which demonstrates the ability to miss bats and escape barrels. There aren’t many pitchers, in the majors or elsewhere, with that kind of arsenal of power.

3. How good could Skenes be?

In the magical world of baseball scouting language, you have what evaluators call guys and you have what they call dudes. A guy is just a guy; a guy is the man. I understood? Good, because Skenes certainly looks like a guy. In layman’s terms, he could very well become the No. 1 or No. 2 starter. (And before anyone yells at us for daring to suggest he won’t be No. 1, remember that designation is reserved for less than a dozen pitchers; there is no shame in being the 13th, 14th, or 17th best starting pitcher in all of MLB.)

Now no one can guarantee that Skenes will become the new Gerrit Cole. Baseball just doesn’t work like that. Sometimes players fail to meet expectations; other times, they take longer than expected to fulfill their promise. Heck, Cole himself is a good example of this: He was the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft, but didn’t make an All-Star Game or receive a Cy Young Award vote until his third season, when he was 24 years old. He then did not accomplish any of these feats again until his campaign at age 27.

For another example of how Skenes’ career could evolve, consider Stephen Strasburg. Everyone, no doubt, remembers how he reached the majors with as much enthusiasm as any pitcher in recent memory; how he got hurt; how he inspired a nonstop tirade when the Washington Nationals shut him down in early 2012; and so on. Either way, Strasburg made his first All-Star Game at age 23 and received his first Cy Young Award consideration at age 25. He didn’t repeat either feat until his age-27 season.

The Pirates can only hope that Skenes can reach the heights that Cole and Strasbourg have reached, without enduring years of poor performance or injuries. Did you hear that? Seems like a convenient opportunity to pursue.

4. Why wasn’t Skenes in the majors yet?

Bottom line: The Pirates took a very conservative approach to Skenes’ workload. He didn’t play in the fifth inning as a pro until three games ago.

Skenes was used aggressively last year at LSU, throwing 122 innings and surpassing the 100-pitch mark more than 40% of the time. This percentage, in fact, was far beyond that of its peers. The pirates moved in the other direction. Consequently, Skenes logged all 29 innings in his first 11 professional starts.

You might question the wisdom of Pittsburgh’s approach, or its potential effectiveness — you’ll never go broke betting that each and every pitcher will get hurt at some point. Still, it’s hard to blame the Pirates for trying to keep their talented young pitcher healthy at a time when the league is facing an epidemic of arm injuries.