Tigers’ Riley Greene could be MLB’s most improved hitter thanks to better approach and power appetite

Here’s a question for you, dear reader: Can you guess who ranks fourth among American League players in Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement version? If you’ve been paying attention to these matters (and hey, it’s early May), you probably know that Bobby Witt Jr., Marcus Semien, and Gunnar Henderson are at the top of the leaderboard. Fourth place, however, belongs to Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene, who has already contributed around 2.2 WAR in his first 37 games.

While all the usual caveats about WAR and small sample sizes apply, the Tigers need to feel good about how the 23-year-old Greene has performed this season. He will enter Friday batting .254/.373/.515, good for a career-high 151 OPS+. He is also just three home runs away from setting a new single-season personal record, having launched nine so far. Mind you, this is someone who has appeared in over 90 games in each of the last two seasons, so this isn’t just a function of increased playing time.

Instead, Greene’s apparent breakout can be attributed to some underlying changes in his game and circumstances. Below, we highlight three factors that allowed Greene to perform as one of the best players in the majors during the first month or so of the season.

1. Leaning on strength

Generally, if a batsman wants to hit harder, he should prioritize pulling the ball in the air. To wit, nearly 70% of all home runs hit in the big leagues this year were launched to the batter’s side. (They all caught air, obviously.) How does a batter lean into that? Often changing their point of contact, so that they find the ball further forward. Other times, hitters need to change their swing planes, adding loft so they are more likely to lift the ball.

Rather than get too far into this stuff, we’ll just note that everything Greene is doing differently this season has worked. Take a look at this stylish and practical table:

As you can see, this may be the first time in Greene’s big league career that a larger portion of his fly balls go to right field than left field. In turn, these fly balls are more likely to clear the fence. You don’t just have to take our word for it, either. Check out Greene’s career spray on extra-base hits that were classified as fly balls:

Greene is strong enough to hit doubles and the occasional home run to left field. The right and center-right, however, are where he is most likely to get over the fence. His barrage of home runs this season is the result of him recognizing that reality and adjusting his game to better align with it.

2. Improved approach

Even as Greene has prepared to hit harder by pulling the ball out of the air, he has shown a quantifiably better approach at the plate this season. This may seem evident given that his walk rate improved from 8.4% to 15.5%., but he’s been more picky about what he’s doing. His chase rate fell from 26.5% to 20.6%, and his overall swing rate fell correspondingly. Swinging less doesn’t always mean a better approach. It happens here, though.

Baseball Prospectus author Rob Orr created a metric we mentioned before called SEAGER. Essentially, it tries to assess whether a batter is making wise swing decisions – that is, hitting pitches that can damage and dismissing those that can’t. Greene has improved on both counts, according to Orr’s metrics. He’s offering more hittable pitches, while also increasing his in-zone contact rate and — as mentioned above — expanding his zone less frequently.

Combine these tendencies with Greene’s new hitting ability and you have a hitter who has greatly improved his offensive side.

3. Better defensive fit

Greene’s overall game also benefited from a defensive shift. Although he played primarily center field during his first two seasons in the major leagues, this season he played almost exclusively in left field, with Parker Meadows taking up the majority of playing time in center. Early returns suggest Greene is a better fit at corners, as evidenced in the table below by his defensive metrics. (Again, we feel compelled to note that public-facing defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable, so take this with a grain of salt.)

History is full of decent central defenders going for corners and flourishing defensively. This is often because the outside corner points don’t require as much reach. Sometimes, however, players read the ball better when they are positioned at an angle rather than facing forward.

Whatever the case here, Greene has always had good grades from a jumping perspective. His routes, on the other hand, tended to be substandard according to ball tracking data. He’s already done a number of low probability obstacles this yearsupporting the idea that he fits better on the left than in the center.

Add those gains to Greene’s offensive progress and he has a great chance to become the first local Tigers player to make an All-Star Game since Alex Avila in 2011.