Brandon Brown
The Paul Skenes era began in Pittsburgh. Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, made his MLB debut Saturday afternoon for the Pittsburgh Pirates and held the NL Central rival Chicago Cubs to three runs in four innings in front of an energetic PNC Park crowd ( GameTracker). He struck out seven and threw 84 pitches in his four innings, plus two batters.
“I’m excited for him to be here,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said before Saturday’s game (via MLB.com). “He deserves it. He proved he needed to be in the big leagues.”
Skenes walked with runners on first and second and no outs in the fifth inning and reliever Kyle Nicolas allowed both inherited runners to score. Nicolas missed the plate and came in with the two inherited runners, who are charged to Skenes and derailed what would otherwise have been an impressive debut. Here is his speech:
Mike Tauchman was the first batter Skenes faced as a big league player and also the first batter Skenes struck out as a big league player. He threw a 160.9 mph fastball from Tauchman for strike three earlier in his afternoon. Skenes also struck out Seiya Suzuki, the second batter he faced. I can’t get a much better career than that.
Here are all seven eliminations:
Skenes’ debut was the most anticipated debut for a pitcher in MLB since Stephen Strasburg in 2010. Strasburg, himself a former No. 1 pick, struck out 14 Pirates in his debut. With a bit of symmetry, Pittsburgh’s leadoff hitter that day was Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen was also Pittsburgh’s leadoff hitter in Skenes’ debut on Saturday.
Joey Votto had this to say about Skenes:
Left-handed juicer Connor Joe hit a three-run homer off Cubs ace Justin Steele, which gave Skenes at least a chance to clinch the win in his debut. Oneil Cruz followed with a home run to make back-to-back jacks. It was just the fifth left-to-left home run of Cruz’s career. That’s the formula for the Pirates: Skenes taking out guys and Cruz hitting dingers.
Skenes, 22 at the end of this month, pitched to a 0.99 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings at Triple-A before being called up. Our RJ Anderson ranked Skenes the best pitcher in baseball at the start of the seasonand the tenth best overall prospect. Here is your article:
Skenes went No. 1 overall in July’s draft based on his power arsenal and proximity to the majors. His fastball reached around 90 mph during a late-season appearance in the Florida State League, and his slider proved to be an effective chasing offering. Turns out he missed nearly 48% of the hitters he faced during SEC play by accident. Still, Skenes was more polarizing in scouting circles than the above information indicates. His fastball shape has “dead zone” properties, a fancy way of saying it’s easier to track due to the similar amount of vertical and horizontal movement. This flaw won’t prevent Skenes from having a big league career — Nathan Eovaldi and Hunter Greene both have “dead zone” fastballs — but it could cause his fastball to be less effective than it should be based on pure velocity.
Pirates GM Ben Cherington said the Pirates will maintain a six-man rotation for now – Bailey Falter, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Martín Pérez and Quinn Priester are the other five members of the rotation – which lines up Skenes to make his next start next Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. He will face the Cubs in each of his first two MLB games. Here’s what you need to know about Skenes after his MLB debut.
1. MLB has a new speed king
As expected, Skenes brought the pressure in his MLB debut. His four-seam fastball average – average – 99.9 mph in Triple-A this season. His first pitch as a major: 101.0 mph. In all, Skenes threw 17 pitches at 100 mph or better on Saturday, including six at 100 mph or better, and his fastball averaged 100.1 mph.
That 100.1 mph average fastball is the highest by a pitcher in a game this year, at half a mile per hour. It is the sixth-highest average fastball velocity in a single game since the launch of Statcast in 2015 (min. 40 fastballs):
- Hunter Greene: 101.0 mph (September 17, 2022)
- Hunter Greene: 160.5 mph (July 26, 2022)
- Jacob de Grom: 160.4 mph (June 5, 2021)
- Hunter Greene: 160.4 mph (March 20, 2023)
- Hunter Greene: 160.2 mph (April 16, 2022)
- Paulo Skenes: 160.1 mph (May 11, 2024)
Skenes has generated four errors in 15 at-bats against his fastball, a 27% rate that is above the league average of 21.9%. It’s a tiny sample, of course. Still, Skenes’ fastball movement profile isn’t great, so it’s worth watching how many bats she misses at the big league level in the future.
2. The new sinker is legit
The Pirates selected Skenes with the No. 1 pick for his devastating fastball/slider combination and above-average control, and he certainly leaned on those two pitches on Saturday. He threw 33 four-seamers and 23 sliders among his 84 pitches, which is almost exactly two-thirds of his total pitches. That’s a pretty typical usage rate for Skenes.
Skenes also added a new sinker this season that Statcast classifies as a game-changer because it moves so much at high speed. However, it’s a sinker – “It’s a sinker, but call it what you want” Skenes told our Matt Snyder – and he used it a lot on Saturday. Twenty-one of their 84 pitches were sinkers and the Cubs missed seven of their 12 shots. That 58% smell rate is astronomical.
In all, Skenes generated 14 errors in 40 at-bats in his MLB debut, for a healthy 35% rate. He also hit a swing and miss or a strike scored on 33% of his pitches, which is a strong rate. Whatever you want to call it, sinker or splitter, it’s clearly a real weapon for Skenes, and something he’ll lean on heavily in the future.
3. The Pirates allowed Skenes to increase his pitch count
Skenes threw 84 pitches in his four innings on Saturday and that’s a new season high for him. He topped out at six innings and 75 pitches during his extremely careful build-up at Triple-A. Skenes started the fifth inning with 74 pitches, so the Pirates pushed him into unfamiliar pitch count territory to give him a chance to earn his first MLB victory.
Unfortunately, an infield double and single ended Skenes’ afternoon, and he fell short of the win. The Pirates have handled him very carefully this season, perhaps too much, so Skenes didn’t get a chance to advance in the fifth inning despite a seemingly comfortable 6-1 lead. In the grand scheme of things, 84 was the most important number on Saturday. Skenes increased his pitch count a bit more in his major league debut.
4. Skenes handled adversity well
The Cubs had their best chance to break through against Skenes in the second inning when they loaded a base with a hit by pitch (Nico Hoerner), a walk (Michael Busch) and a single (Miles Mastrobuoni). Skenes escaped by eliminating Yan Gomes and making Tauchman second. It was the bullpen that messed things up in the fifth inning.
This is notable because Skenes has not faced a single bases-loading situation in the minors, neither this year nor last. Saturday’s second inning was his first bases-loaded situation since he was at LSU last spring. That’s part of being a great player: learning how to get out of jams. The best pitches are so overwhelming these days that they rarely face problems with the smallest ones.
Dominating is great, we all want to see our team’s best young pitchers beat opposing hitters, but navigating jams is also part of the job. Even the best pitchers get hit from time to time. Learning how to escape problems and limit damage is a crucial stage of development. Skenes’ final pitch line is a bit misleading because Nicolas and the bullpen let things get out of hand. Skenes acquitted himself well in his first real test on Saturday.
