Four choices for the Orioles as Craig Kimbrel struggles as closer: Internal options, trade candidates, more

Nearly seven weeks into the 2024 season, the Baltimore Orioles once again look like the best team in the American League. They led the circuit with 101 wins a year ago, and entering play on Sunday, the O’s have the best record (26-12) and best run differential (plus-56) in the AL. Baltimore has won 18 of its last 24 games.

“We battled. This team never gives up,” Craig Kimbrel said after Saturday’s 5-4 11th inning victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks (via MLB.com). “We were talking about it a few weeks ago in the bullpen. Our job is to keep them close because in the blink of an eye, these guys can score four runs. , we will have the chance to win a lot of games.”

The Orioles are scoring 5.16 runs per game, most in the AL and third in baseball, and their rotation ranks sixth in ERA (3.28) among all teams. The bullpen wasn’t necessarily bad – Baltimore’s bullpen ranks seventh in ERA (3.26) and sixth in added win probability (2.00) – although the ninth inning was an adventure at times. Kimbrel’s May was something to behold:

Three great performances sandwiched around two clunkers. Two issues where Kimbrel had to be pulled in the ninth inning and someone else had to come in to finish the save. On May 10, Kimbrel pitched the seventh inning with the O’s up. On May 11, he pitched the 11th inning, after the team’s other high-leverage relievers had already been used.

“Pitching a 3-2 game in the seventh is still a lot of pressure and a high-leverage situation,” manager Brandon Hyde said after using Kimbrel in the seventh inning on May 11 (via MASN). “I just want him to keep going, honestly. I just want him to be confident. I know he’s had kind of a rough week and I just wanted to change up his look a little bit. This guy has done a lot of really cool things for a long time and just trying to give him some confidence.”

The O’s will be without world closer Félix Bautista this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. They signed Kimbrel to essentially serve as a one-year stopgap — Kimbrel’s $13 million deal is the only major league free agent contract the Orioles have awarded this winter — but so far, things have been shaky in the ninth inning. It didn’t sink their season, but it is a concern.

What can the Orioles do about Kimbrel and his closer situation? There are four ways they can resolve things.

1. Enjoy with Kimbrel

Recent tremors aside, Kimbrel hasn’t allowed an earned run in 13 of his 18 starts, and his first 11 starts have been nearly flawless: 0.82 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 11 innings. Opponents have hit .139/.200/.139 against him. Kimbrel pitched very well, went through a rough patch in late April and early May, and now his last two starts have been good.

The Orioles are so good in every other facet of the game that sticking with Kimbrel in the ninth inning is justifiable. He went through a rough patch, as every reliever goes through every year (even the great ones), and Kimbrel has been around long enough to know how to get through those rough patches. Sometimes the best solution is to remain patient and trust the players.

Remember, the Philadelphia Phillies went to the NLCS with Kimbrel as their closer last year (just don’t ask about the World Series). He closed games for a high-end prospect last year. You don’t have to look back four or five years to see the last time Kimbrel was a last-minute option for a team with championship aspirations. It’s only May. The O’s could just keep Kimbrel.

2. Go with someone else

This is exactly what happened on May 10th. Hyde deemphasized Kimbrel and used him in the seventh inning with a one-run lead. Right-hander Jacob Webb and left-hander Cionel Pérez double-teamed in the eighth inning, and then 2023 All-Star Yennier Cano closed things out in the ninth. Cano also rescued Kimbrel and ended that tough May 4 game in Cincinnati.

The solution to Baltimore’s closest problems is there: Cano. He has been a standout since the start of last season and is an elite ground ball pitcher, which means he won’t come in the ninth inning and serve up a game-tying home run. To score against Cano, you need three singles to score a run. This is not easy. That’s why it is so effective.

Hyde could also go with Webb, who has moved up a level since joining the O’s via waiver claim last August. Or Danny Coulombe, another excellent discovery by GM Mike Elias. Keegan Akin is another option now that he has recovered from a difficult 2023. The issue is that the O’s have closer candidates internally. Cano is the best, but there are others. Choose one and go with it.

3. Closing by committee

The problem with using Cano, since the closer is the ninth inning, it’s not always the most important inning, and he’s shown he’s capable of getting 4-6 outs if needed. This is really valuable. On April 29, Cano got the final out in the seventh inning and all three outs in the eighth inning as the Orioles gained two. The hitters he faced: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Wells.

Hyde identified that “lane” as the game’s most crucial moment — Judge represented the tying run when Cano entered, and if the Yankees came back, it would likely happen right then and there — so he used Cano to erase a potential rally. Coulombe then came in to make the save against the bottom of the lineup in the ninth inning, with Kimbrel unavailable.

Not long ago, an approach by committee meant you didn’t have an approach. It was a bad thing. Now it’s almost fashionable. Teams will have multiple high-quality relievers who will mix and match in the late innings and use relievers when they are needed most, not when their specific shift arrives. Already this season, 17 teams have multiple pitchers with multiple saves. More than half the league!

Closer by committee is essentially what the O’s are doing now, while Kimbrel is being de-emphasized. Hyde is using Cano as his Moment of Truth reliever and then filling in the gaps with Coulombe, Pérez, Webb and Michael Baumann. This approach leaves the manager open to questions. It’s also very, very effective when done correctly.

4. Make a trade

Despite their youth, this is an all-inclusive season for the Orioles because Corbin Burnes will be a free agent this offseason. Maybe new owner David Rubenstein will step up and give the 2021 NL Cy Young winner a big contract, but until that happens we have to assume it will be a year and a year with just Burnes. The O’s want to make the most of it.

In that case, it would make sense to dip into that deep well of prospects — the O’s have more high-level prospects than roster spots — and trade for a hit reliever to stabilize the ninth inning. This isn’t really Elijah’s MO. He tends to build his bullpen around unheralded catchers, although signing Kimbrel shows a willingness to deviate from the plan.

The obvious trade target: Oakland Athletics flamethrower Mason Miller. Miller has been out of this world well this season It is teams are already asking about him. It would hurt to have him as a prospect, but my goodness, Miller is a dominator and would make any bullpen better. And think about it, the O’s would get Miller’s help in 2024, and then they would have him, Cano, It is Bautista in 2025. Wow.

Here, listed in alphabetical order, are some other potential relief trade targets should the O’s decide to go outside the organization for bullpen help.

Ryan Helsley, St. At 15-24 the Cardinals are in last place just not for the reasons we expected. The front office could sell at the deadline and Helsley, who is under team control through 2025, would be one of their top trade chips. Helsley has struck out 19 batters and walked just one intentionally this year.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox: Did you know the ChiSox have a 9-6 record over their last 15 games? They’re still in pretty bad shape, and there’s every reason to hope they sell on time. Kopech has always had premium stuff and I think the O’s would be able to take him to the next level a la Cano, Webb, et al. As an added bonus, they would have it next year as well.

Justin Lawrence, Colorado Rockies: Armed with an upper-90s sinker and a great sweeper, Lawrence is exactly the kind of powerful arm that a smart team could turn into a late-inning force. That didn’t happen in Colorado, partly because of Coors Field and partly because *gestures to Rocky Mountains*but it could be somewhere else.

Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros: Elias was the assistant GM in Houston when the Astros traded for Pressly in 2018, so there’s a story here. The Astros are 14-25, and if they don’t get back into the race, it would be wise to trade Pressly and avoid his $14 million vesting option for 2025. The option is good for 34 more appearances.

Jordan Romano, Blue Jays: An elbow problem delayed the start of Romano’s season and he has been shaky since returning, but the record is strong and he will also be under team control next season. The Blue Jays are in the AL East cellar and their minus-43 run differential is second-worst in the AL. Romano could be available in July.

Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins: Luis Arráez has already been negotiated and Scott, a future free agent, certainly will at some point as well. He started his career with the Orioles, so there’s familiarity here, and lefties who throw 100 mph are always in demand. The only question is whether the O’s trust his control (14 walks in 14 innings in 2024).

In eliminated performers Anthony Bender and Andrew Nardi, the Marlins have other relievers who could be more in Elias’ path as unknown types. The D-backs could move Paul Sewald if they don’t get their season back on track. He will be a free agent in a few months. There will be good relievers on the trade market in July. They always are. It’s just a matter of finding the right path(s).