Brandon Brown
While there are some stragglers, most Major League Baseball teams have reached the 40-game mark in recent days, so while there isn’t an exact 25% barrier, we’re about a quarter of the way through the 2024 season. Time flies and everything, but we’re not here for that kind of discussion. Instead, we’re here to take a quick look at where the top individual prizes stand. Let’s do just that.
Who would win the MVPs, Cy Youngs and Rookies of the Year if voting took place now?
American League MVP
Just below the top level, there are some strong candidates like Marcus Semien, Steven Kwan, Salvador Perez, and Ryan Jeffers (yes, really).
I have a top four that has separated itself from the group now, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker.
Witt leads the league in WAR and runs scored while slashing .298/.366/.509 (148 OPS+) with 11 doubles, five triples, five homers, 21 RBI and 15 steals. The Royals are also contenders and that always helps.
Henderson emerged as the best player on perhaps the best team in the league in the Orioles. He trails the league lead in total bases and trails Witt in WAR. He has 12 homers and 27 RBI with six stolen bases and three triples and a 158 OPS+
Soto made a huge difference in the approach of the entire Yankees team. They ranked 12th in on-base percentage last season and are first this season. Soto is the league leader in OBP at .413, while hitting .313 and boasting a robust 170 OPS+. He has nine homers and 34 RBI along with 28 runs.
Tucker leads the majors with 13 home runs and also leads the AL in OPS, OPS+ (184). He is the leader in total bases. He has 29 RBI and 28 runs with six stolen bases. The fact that the Astros are a huge disappointment probably hurts him here.
I think I’d vote for Witt, but it’s really close and I said I’d try to find out who would win the vote if it were held now, so…
The choice: Juan Soto, Yankees
National League MVP
We’ll name-check a few others so there’s a little more variety, but right now this is a two-man race and they both play for the same team. We will give some credit to William Contreras, Ketel Marte and Alec Bohm. Elly De La Cruz is preparing to become an MVP. Marcell Ozuna leads the league in home runs and RBI, and several decades ago that alone probably would have been enough.
However, this is Shohei Ohtani vs. Mookie Betts now.
Bets: .345/.441/.563, 182 OPS+, 60 H, 11 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 37 R, 8 SB, 30 BB, 20 K, 3.4 WAR
Ohtani: .361/.427/.680, 206 OPS+, 61 H, 16 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 30 RBI, 34 R, 9 SB, 21 BB, 36 K, 2.8 WAR
The point of separation in WAR is important. Ohtani is just a DH, while Betts has provided excellent defense at both second base and shortstop. Keep in mind he was a career right fielder until the Dodgers found themselves in a difficult center field situation last season. Now he gets positive marks in both positions. That’s insane value, while Ohtani offers no value on the defensive end. This should be the deciding factor.
The choice: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
American League Cy Young
The clear choice for spring training was Gerrit Cole, but once he suffered an injury, the field completely opened up and it shows. We also have a litany of unexpected or relatively unknown competitors. In the FanGraphs version of WAR, Tarik Skubal, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck are tied for the lead. In the Baseball Reference version, Crawford, Seth Lugo and Ronel Blanco are the top three. ERA top five? Lugo, Skubal, Blanco, Houck and Crawford.
What about this? How fun.
Lugo now has a sizable edge in ERA (1.66 to Skubal’s 2.02), leads in wins and innings pitched while ranking sixth in WHIP. It’s close and there are arguments for several others, and I could see a strong push for Skubal, but I think Lugo would take it.
The Royals have only had three Cy Young winners in history (Bret Saberhagan, twice, David Cone and Zack Greinke).
The choice: Seth Lugo, royalty
National League Cy Young
Some expected names like Tyler Glasnow and Zack Wheeler deserve mention, as well as some unexpected names like Javier Assad and Reynaldo López as well. Also keep an eye on names like Chris Sale, Logan Webb and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I think this is a three-man race between Ranger Suárez, Dylan Cease and Shota Imanaga.
Suárez: 7-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 55 K, 8 BB, 54 IP, 2.5 WAR
Cease: 5-3, 2.45 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 68 K, 17 BB, 55 IP, 1.8 WAR
Imanaga: 5-0, 0.96 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 51 K, 8 BB, 46.2 IP, 2.5 WAR
I think Cease takes third and no one knows who would win in the top two here. I’m guessing the Cubs rookie has helped stabilize the rotation in situations like Justin Steele’s injury, but I could be wrong. It’s very close.
The choice: Shota Imanaga, Cubs
AL Rookie of the Year
At the beginning of the season, almost everyone believed that the winner would come from the group of Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Jackson Holliday. None of the three would be in the mix now.
Simeon Woods Richardson has only made five starts for the Twins, but he’s been great. The Yankees’ Luis Gil, in his eight starts, has been excellent at preventing runs and hits, although he is the leader in walks. Orioles slugger Colton Cowser has six home runs and 20 RBI in just 124 plate appearances. He’s hitting .500. Blue Jays utilityman Davis Schneider is having a good year and still has rookie eligibility. Tigres’ Wenceel Pérez has only played 25 games, but has done very well so far.
However.
A’s closer Mason Miller still has rookie eligibility. He didn’t accumulate enough service time last season to take him off the list. In 14 starts, he has a 0.98 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 38 strikeouts, five walks and 18 1/3 innings, having successfully closed out all eight save chances. As such, it’s a blast.
The choice: Mason Miller, Athletics
NL Rookie of the Year
It’s rare to have the field controlled by pitchers to this extent, but it appears the best position player would be Jackson Merrill and he’s having a very good year, slashing .290/.340/.399 while handling center field admirably after being moved to there only in spring. Still, Imanaga and Yamamoto are the top two, while the Pirates’ Jared Jones also deserves a mention. I already chose Imanaga over Yamamoto, so that would certainly continue to be the case here.
I suppose some would argue whether or not Imanaga and Yamamoto should count here, but they are Major League Baseball rookies by rule.
The choice: Shota Imanaga, Cubs
