Brandon Brown
The Yankees beat the Mariners on Thursday afternoon, 5-0, on the strength of great pitching and home runs from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Judge’s extended warm-up continues, but let’s focus on Stanton’s swing and his season – career too! — as a whole.
Here is the prodigious explosion:
That was 12th of the season for Stanton and he now has 27 RBI.
Most importantly, Stanton managed to avoid the injured list this season. He has played in 45 of 52 games. He appeared in 101 last year, 110 in 2022, 139 in 2021, just 23 of 60 in 2020, and just 18 in 2019. It’s important to note all the injuries he suffered in those years, because Stanton was an absolute Hall of Famer to keep track of before this. .
Throughout 2018, Stanton won an MVP and finished runner-up once. He just finished his age-28 season and had 305 homers with 772 RBI. With a player of his stature, you could argue he was almost halfway through his career, so feel free to double those power numbers in your head. He also boasted a career 144 OPS+ with 1,124 hits and 678 runs. He led the league in hits three times, home runs twice, RBI once, WAR once and total bases once.
He looked like he would be a Hall of Famer at the time.
And now? With everything we know that’s happened since then? Is there a chance he can still salvage a decent Hall of Fame case?
Thursday’s home run was the 414th of Stanton’s career. He has as many as 1,058 RBI and 1,495 hits. He’s signed through 2027. And despite all the injuries mentioned above that often kept him off the field, Stanton still hit 35 home runs in 2021, 31 in 2022 and 24 in 2023.
If you look at Stanton’s 10 most similar statistical players from last season, it’s already an impressive group: Hall of Famers Willie Stargell, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey and Mike Schmidt. Mark McGwire is there too.
Stanton is a hitter and you could even argue that’s his last remaining skill. That’s where things like WAR will kill him. Certainly, when looking at WAR/JAWS, Stanton is currently well below the average Hall of Fame right fielder. He is 38th in JAWS, sitting alongside the likes of Rocky Colavito and Rusty Staub, although he is also very close to Hall of Famers Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper and Tony Oliva, while being ahead of Hall of Famers King Kelly and Sam Thompson. He is way ahead of Harold Baines and Ross Youngs.
Still, I’m less worried about it because I think the opener is just racking up home runs. Indeed, there is a very good chance Stanton surpasses 500 home runs.
If we could all agree that the best thing a hitter can do in a given plate appearance is hit a home run — and you’d be a fool to seriously disagree — that’s where that avenue really holds weight for Stanton.
Only 28 players in MLB history has already hit 500 home runs in his career. Just reaching 500 home runs used to be an automatic Hall of Fame election line. The only players who have not been inducted have ties to the PED (fair or not) or have not yet become eligible (Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, both of whom will enter easily).
We have to consider the issue of the decrease in the 500 home run mark, but home runs have decreased since the so-called “Steroid Era”. A whopping 10 of 28 500 HR hitters reached the boundary between McGwire (August 5, 1999) and Gary Sheffield (April 17, 2009). Since then, we’ve only seen three (Pujols, David Ortiz and Cabrera) and Stanton is the active home run leader with 414.
Basically, if you believe that reaching 500 home runs as an achievement was cheapened, it was only really cheapened in the space of a decade. Things are back to sanity now.
Plus, Stanton has a chance to fly far enough beyond 500 to turn some heads. Frank Thomas, Ted Williams and McCovey are tied for 20th place with 521. It’s reasonable to believe that Stanton surpassed 521, right? He’s at .414 now and averaged exactly 30 homers per season from 2021-23. He is signed until 2027. He can reach 525 years.
There’s also the whole “sensation” argument. You know which one. “He just doesn’t look like a Hall of Famer to me.” Well, of course, now he doesn’t know. Do you remember Stanton from, say, 2012-18? The guy who averaged 45 homers and 113 RBI per 162 games, who reached 60 in one season (losing one less in 2017 despite winning MVP for a non-playoff team)? People have applied “one of the most feared hitters in baseball” before, with Jim Rice being one of the easy examples. Stanton was absolutely one of the most feared hitters in baseball during that period and there were several stretches where he was O most feared.
Also remember what a phenomenon he was at such a young age.
Stanton ranks eighth in career home runs at age 28, behind A-Rod, Ken Griffey Jr., Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews, Mickey Mantle, Pujols and Mel Ott. This means he is ahead of many all-time great hitters.
Considering everything above, if Stanton finishes 20th all-time in home runs, while also winning an MVP and leading the league in hits three times and home runs twice – as well as being touted as a feared hitter for five – one year period – shouldn’t he be a Hall of Famer?
It sure seems like the answer to that question should be yes.
It’s clear that Stanton still has a lot of work to do and staying on the field is the main concern. If he falls short of 500 homers, forget it.
So far in 2024, though, he appears to be on the right track and that keeps his Hall of Fame chances alive, even if the case may actually be on life support.
