Will Justin Verlander get to 300 wins? Why milestone is unlikely but not impossible for Astros veteran

Houston Astros veteran Justin Verlander had a strong performance in his team’s 6-3 victory over the A’s on Friday night:

The win is mostly notable for the Astros’ improving fortunes — they’re 13-9 in May after emerging from April with a deeply disappointing 10-19 mark — and it’s also notable for some of Verlander’s benchmarks. First, those nine strikeouts (Verlander’s most to start this season) give him 3,377 for his career and push former Hall of Famer Greg Maddux into 10th place on the all-time strikeout list. Here’s an updated look at said list:

Given his health and effectiveness the rest of the way, it’s possible Verlander gets 3,500 career strikeouts this season. Whatever the future holds on that front, he’s already among the elite of the elite when it comes to strikeouts.

Speaking of future milestones for Verlander, Friday’s win also brought about the 260th win of his career, which ties him with Ted Lyons for 41st on the all-time win record. While 260 isn’t an especially resonant figure in baseball, it is notable for being a checkpoint on the way to the much more vaunted 300.

In all, only 24 pitchers have won 300 or more career games, and no one has achieved the feat since Randy Johnson in 2009. Given starting pitchers’ usage trends, they are pitching less than ever and therefore recording wins at a higher level. historically low. clip — it’s not hard to find those who wonder out loud if we’ll ever see a 300-game winner again. Until further notice, Verlander and his 260 wins are the best (and last?) chance.

So what are the chances that the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer and three-time Cy Young winner will get his remaining 40 wins? The first essential component is the desire to play to such an advanced age in baseball, and Verlander appears to check that box. Regarding this perspective – that is, staying in the game long enough to reach 300 wins – Verlander told reporters this less than a year ago:

“It’s definitely still possible.

“Look, that’s not why I’m still pitching, but I’d love to,” Verlander said. “I love the game. But it’s simple math. I need 15 more a year, for what, three more years? If I play another five or six years, I should get there. I’m just trying to extend my window as long as possible and still be good, if I play until I’m 45 or 46, it’s still very plausible.”

How plausible? To get an idea of ​​Verlander’s chances, we’ll turn to Bill James’ “Favorite Toy” Formula. Favorite Toy is a decidedly quick and downright dirty way to project a player’s career total into any counting measure you can think of. It’s a blunt instrument and sometimes a bit conservative, but it gives a rough idea of, say, how many wins Verlander can rack up in his professional life.

The favorite toy requires three years of major league data to function properly, and the newer the better. As such, we will need to project Verlander’s win total into 2024.

Verlander’s start to this season was delayed because of a case of shoulder inflammation in the spring, which may have contributed to his inconsistency so far in 2024 and helps explain why he currently has just three wins. Turning to ZiPS projections for the rest of the season available on FanGraphs, we see that Verlander is projected to pick up seven more wins in 2024, so we’ll use 10 as his total for this year in the favorite toy formula and therefore 267 for his career tally. Also in the mix are his 13 wins with the Mets and Astros last season and his 18 wins with Houston in 2022.

So what does Favorite Toy tell us after providing this information plus Verlander’s age? Here is the executive summary:

“Based on his age, his player is expected to play another 1.5 years, averaging 12.3 per year. At that rate, he will finish his career at age 285. He has a 6% chance of reach 300.”

The system isn’t exactly optimistic about Verlander’s chances, but then again, it’s a bit conservative in nature. I’ll assume that 6% number, while acknowledging that Verlander probably won’t reach 300. If he truly ends 2024 with 267 wins, then he’ll need the following averages to join the 300 club:

• 11 wins per season in three seasons.
• 8.25 wins per season across four seasons
• 6.6 wins per season over five seasons, which would take him to his age-46 campaign.

Again, let’s note based on Verlander’s quote above that the desire to continue playing appears to be there. He has a $35 million player option for 2025 that automatically kicks in if he logs at least 140 innings this season and is free of significant arm issues before the offseason. Beyond this semi-knowable horizon, much depends, of course, on Verlander’s effectiveness.

This situation deserves monitoring. He’s been an above-average starting pitcher so far in 2024 (3.60 ERA, 107 ERA+), and those, of course, tend to stay employed (especially those with a proven track record of late-career greatness, like Verlander). . Furthermore, Verlander intends to continue hitching his wagon to strong competitors on paper, which in theory and in general means more race support and therefore better chances of scoring wins. On the downside, Verlander’s fastball velocity, strikeout rates, whiff rates, and chase rates have all dropped so far in 2024, and that could bode poorly for the future if this all continues like this. Still, he only completed 40 innings in his season and is likely still feeling the effects of a disrupted spring. Let’s see how things look with a larger sample.

At the very least, Verlander’s quest for 300 is a situation worth monitoring. This is especially the case given the elusive nature of the benchmark in contemporary times and Verlander’s apparent determination to threaten it. He has a chance, something no other pitcher has been able to say in a long time.