Three reasons to believe in Braves despite Ronald Acuña Jr.’s injury and three why Atlanta’s time may be up

The Atlanta Braves were dealt a blow on Sunday when star outfielder and reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a torn left anterior cruciate ligament and will miss the remainder of the 2024 season.

Most important is what this means for Acuña himself, as he previously had to fight his way back from a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his other knee. Given that history, it’s fair to say that the impact this news has had on one of the game’s brightest stars goes beyond “just” the physical:

Then, though, we get to the question of what this means for the Braves. They are aiming to win the National League East for the seventh year in a row, and – coming off a 2023 season in which they won 104 games – anything less than capturing the World Series trophy would constitute something of a failure. The loss of Acuña hurts their prospects for success and means it’s time to reevaluate a team that looked like baseball’s best at the start of the season. Let’s do that now and present reasons to believe in the post-Acuña Braves as one of the best teams in baseball this season, and then present reasons why no believe them as such.

Reasons to believe in the Braves 2024

1. Replacing Acuña’s production so far may be easier than you think.

The reality for Acuña in 2024 so far is that he was not producing up to expectations before his knee injury. His season ends with a .250/.351/.365 slash line with just four home runs in 49 games (compare that to last year’s .337/.416/.596). Add in his decreasing range on the field and he managed just a 0.1 WAR in those 49 games. Of course, Acuña was still a serviceable player thus far — his 104 OPS+ and 16 steals in 19 attempts say as much — but the first two months of the season haven’t yielded anything close to vintage production for him. Whether the Braves find an internal solution to replace him or dive into the evolving trade market, meeting the 2024 baseline in effect is surprisingly doable.

2. There is still a lot of talent in the cast.

The Braves, when they’re firing on all cylinders, are positively loaded with established, high-ceiling talent. Scan the list and you’ll find All-Star names like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Chris Sale, Max Fried and others. Sean Murphy, one of the best catchers in baseball, just returned from the injured list and will be in action for the first time since Opening Day. Granted, not all of this talent has lived up to expectations so far — Olson, Riley and Michael Harris II have yet to find their respective levels, for example — but keep in mind it’s still relatively early.

Speaking of which, let’s put all of this into perspective. Despite getting less value than you’d expect from players like Acuña, Olson, Riley, Harris and others and despite having been the starting catcher in all three appearances thus far, the Braves are on pace for 97 wins at the moment. In that sense, we are concerned about a season that most teams would consider a resounding success.

3. NL looks weak overall.

We’ll dive into the NL East race in a moment, but let’s talk a little about the senior circuit as a whole. Even without Acuña’s breakthrough, it’s nearly impossible to see a path to a postseason that doesn’t include the Atlanta Braves. Yes, they are in second place, but they are also in wild card position right now, with a five-game lead in terms of playoff position. On related matters, take a look at our ratings page and you’ll find that Sports Line gives the Braves a 95.1% chance of making the postseason. Among NL squads, only the Phillies and Dodgers currently have better playoff odds.

Framed another way, the NL’s second wild card spot is occupied by the 27-26 Cubs, and the third and final spot gives us a tie between the Padres and Giants, both at .500. It’s not unthinkable that the NL in 2024 could yield a playoff team with a losing record. That’s largely another discussion, but for these purposes let’s just consider that the Braves would have to go beyond plausibility to see the year end at the same time as the regular season.

Reasons not to believe in the 2024 Braves

1. Injuries hit them hard.

As if the loss of Acuña wasn’t enough, the Braves will also be without their young ace, Spencer Strider, for the rest of 2024. One of the best strikeouts among starting pitchers, Strider finished fourth in the NL Cy Young win last season. poll, and at age 25 looked like the leading candidate to win the award in 2024. After just two games this season, however, he was diagnosed with a torn UCL and will now miss the entire season. It’s a huge loss for the Braves and their rotation.

Speaking of the rotation, Atlanta recently lost coveted young right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver for perhaps the next two months with a Grade 2 oblique strain. While Smith-Shawver is more of a long-term piece for the Braves, he was also a valuable starting arm. depth to the rotation given the loss of Strider. They were already having trouble finding a reliable fifth starter and now their options are even slimmer.

Finally we will return to Acuña. His abnormally average production leading up to the injury was detailed above, but now let’s talk about what the Braves will miss on a theoretical level. Given Acuña’s rich history of high-level production, he would likely be more valuable through the rest of 2024 than he was until Sunday’s injury left him in a tough spot between second and third base. On FanGraphs, ZiPS’ rest of the season forecast has Acuña pegged for a .294/.393/.546 slash line through the remainder of 2024, with 26 additional home runs and 35 more stolen bases. That’s a projected 106 games of high-level production that the Braves could be missing. Of course, it’s possible that Acuña would have continued to put up those disappointing numbers by his standards, but it’s more likely that he would have found something closer to his career standards. That’s it which the Braves will lack for the rest of the season.

2. They have other rotation concerns.

The outfielders in the Braves’ rotation this season — Chris Sale, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Reynaldo López — have thrived so far. The quartet has combined for a 2.64 ERA and 3.17 FIP in 38 starts, and that has been a huge driver when it comes to the aforementioned 97-win pace that Atlanta has enjoyed. However, it is not difficult to come up with some future concerns. Can the 40-year-old Morton continue to avoid age-related decline as the season deepens? Will López, who entered the 2024 season with a career ERA/FIP of 4.73/0.4.69 as a starter, continue to defy that history and a much larger sample size?

Then there’s Sale, who has enjoyed a deeply impressive renaissance thus far. With it, however, it’s also about health and durability. Sale has a long history of arm issues and hasn’t thrown a qualifying number of innings since 2017. In that 2017 season, Sale accumulated 214 2/3 innings pitched. Over the past five seasons combined, he has thrown a total of 214 1/3 innings. The standard assumption is that Sale will not be healthy and available for the entire remaining season. Given his immense value to Atlanta thus far, this is a huge looming concern.

On the other hand, the negotiation deadline may not bring the respite they are looking for. That crowded NL playoff race mentioned above almost certainly means tight supply from deadline sellers. Starting pitchers are always in demand at trade time, and the Braves, with their thinned farm system, may have difficulty meeting the acute conditions of the 2024 trade market for rotation help.

3. The Phillies are better than ever.

Given the Braves’ near-endless discussion about what the five-day layoff allegedly did to them last postseason, perhaps they’re secretly pleased to be behind the Phils in the NL East? Probably not. The Phils currently hold a six-game lead in the division, and according to SportsLine, that has an 88.9% chance of beating the Braves for the division title. That, in turn, would mean the Braves (assuming they claim a wild card spot) would be forced to play that additional best-of-three round of the playoffs. As we know, the weirdness of baseball is such that it’s entirely possible for a wild-card team to be the last one standing, but this added hurdle makes that much less likely.

As for the Phils, the rotation looks like a powerhouse, especially with Ranger Suárez’s growing skill set and Aaron Nola’s vintage-to-date performance. Elsewhere, there’s plenty of reason to believe that Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott have stepped up with the bat sustainably, and so far the lineup is weathering the loss of Trea Turner. Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto are still in their prime.

Of course, the Braves can catch the Phillies, but the current reality of the standings is not accommodating. The Phillies also appear to be a legitimate power team, as opposed to the “merely” very good Philly models of the recent past.

In the end, the Braves are all but locked into making the postseason, and that means they are, by definition, World Series contenders. There’s no doubt, though, that they lack the spark of 2023. To what extent the loss of Acuña dims their prospects is a subjective question, but what remains is perhaps the most dangerous season the Braves have faced in some time.