Are the Phillies actually this good? Four reasons why MLB’s best team could sustain this wild run

At 38-17, the Philadelphia Phillies are off to the second-best 55-game start in franchise history, behind only the 1993 pennant-winning team, which started 39-16. Philadelphia won 34 times in 44 games earlier this year. It was the best 44-game stretch in team history. They had the best 50-game record since the 2001 Mariners team, which set a single-season record with 116 wins..

The Phillies have the best record in baseball, one game ahead of the Yankees, and have the second-best run differential at plus-89. They are scoring 5.33 runs per game, most in baseball by 0.27 runs, and are allowing just 3.71 runs per game. It’s the fifth best in the game. The Phillies have been very good from 2022-23. This year they took the leap to top of class.

We’ve seen other teams get off to tremendous starts in recent years and not turn it into a World Series title – the Yankees are off to a 49-16 start in 2022, the Rays are off to a 47-19 start in 2023, etc. they are in it for all the glory. They won the pennant in 2022 and are one win away from the pennant in 2023. They want to get over the hump and win the World Series, not just the NL East.

Are the Phillies really that good? Well, no, they (probably) won’t continue at their current pace and win 112 games, but this team is very good. Better and deeper than the 2022 and 2023 versions. Here are four reasons to believe the Phillies are as good as their record indicates and can continue at a similar pace.

1. Few Phillies are playing too much

We’re far enough into the season to have a good idea whether these early-season hot streaks represented legitimate advancement or just a well-timed string of wins. Sometimes a player (or two) comes out of the gate hot, leads his team to some unexpected victories, then he calms down and everything goes back to normal. That’s just baseball. This happens every year.

These Phillies have few players performing at a level that seems unsustainable. Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler aren’t doing anything out of line with the rest of their careers. Alec Bohm improved approach endures what appears to be a breakout season and not two atypical months. Bryson Stott and JT Realmuto are doing exactly what they are expected to do.

That’s not to say we should expect everything to stay as is for the Phillies. As much as I like him, Ranger Suárez is not a truly talented ERA 1.75 pitcher (no one is). His improved strikeout rate and ability to limit hard contact make him an above-average starter, sure, but that sub-2.00 ERA has a shelf life. Suárez’s 81.8% loss rate is well above his career average of 75.8%.

Cristopher Sánchez has one of the best changeups in baseball and was a trendy pick early in the season, and he’s really breaking out. At one time, he allowed one home run in 54 1/3 innings. His 0.17 HR/9 will go up eventually. Edmundo Sosa and Kody Clemens won’t get as many clutch shots. Spencer Turnbull is already returning to Earth. And so on.

The Phillies weren’t led to their 38-17 record by players performing way above their heads. In fact, they have a few players we should expect more of in the future – Kyle Schwarber has yet to have his annual June streak, for example – to balance out the players who will likely have regression come their way. There aren’t many anomalous artists here.

2. Improved defense is real

It’s no secret that the Phillies have been a poor defensive team in recent years. This was true during the 2022 pennant race and also last season when they returned to the NLCS. They overcame their weak defense with a powerful offense and a pitching staff that missed a lot of bats, but yes, the Phillies shot themselves in the foot with bad gloves on a regular basis.

Philadelphia took steps to improve its defense last year, most notably installing Johan Rojas in center field and moving Harper to first base. They moved Schwarber from left field to DH and slid Brandon Marsh, a very good defender himself, from center field to left. The external defense has improved a lot. Harper improved early on as he gained experience as well.

Those defensive alignment changes have carried over into this season and the result is the best Phillies team in years. Here are his defensive numbers:

Defensive efficiency is a fancy way of saying the percentage of batted balls converted into outs, so the Phillies have converted 69.8% of their batted balls into outs this year, up from 69.5% last year and 68.7% from 2021-22. The average MLB defensive efficiency is .699, so the Phillies are right there. The league average is a huge improvement from 2021-23 for this group.

Better defense helps in many ways. It’s not just about more strikeouts on balls in play. There are fewer pitches for the guy on the mound, less work for the bullpen, less time for players to stand, etc. There is a domino effect on the rest of the team. The Phillies are playing well – legitimately well! – defense for the first time in years, and this is evident in their record.

3. They had a favorable schedule, but…

The Phillies are 8-3 against teams that are .500 or better this year. That’s a great winning percentage! It’s also the fewest games played against .500 or better teams in baseball, and not by a small margin either. The Royals have played 16 of those games, the second fewest. Plain and simple, the Phillies have played a lot of bad teams.

But! But there is but here. First of all, there aren’t many good teams out there. This is the result of many things. Many have reduced their off-season spending due to the uncertain outlook for local television revenues. Others are sinking. The 12-team format has lowered the bar for entry into the postseason, so some teams are seeking 84-86 wins. It is what it is.

Only six of the 15 National League teams have a winning record, and the Giants and Padres had to win on Monday to get a game above .500. To show the absurdity of the “record against .500 or better teams” statistic, the Phillies are 8-3 against such teams this year, but would have been 4-2 if they had beaten the Giants on Monday because San Francisco would have been 27-2. 28 instead of 28-27.

The Phillies haven’t played many winning teams because there aren’t many of them in the NL to begin with and also because they haven’t played the toughest part of their interleague schedule yet (they’ll see the Orioles in June and the Yankees in July). The few winning teams that played, they won easily. Credit to them for winning the game they were supposed to win.

4. The Braves are hurting and the Mets are the Mets

There’s no other way to say it: season-ending injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider suck. They suck for the Braves and suck for baseball in general. Two of the best and most exciting players in the game are done for the year. We won’t see them until next season, and when they return, how long will it take for them to get back to the way they were?

The injuries to Acuña and Strider are unfortunate, but injuries are part of the game and no one feels sorry for Atlanta. I mean, the Braves won the World Series three years ago after Acuña broke the other LCA. They faced an Astros team that didn’t have Justin Verlander. The Rangers won the World Series last year without Jacob deGrom. Injuries happen. Good teams outperform them.

That said, the fact is that the Braves are a weaker team today than they were on Opening Day. They lost their best pitcher and their best player for most of the season. Add in the lopsided play these first two months and the Braves are six games behind the Phillies now, their biggest divisional deficit since August 12, 2022. They have an uphill climb ahead.

The injuries to Acuña and Strider are bad for the Braves and baseball in general, but good for the Phillies as they try to win their first NL East title since 2011. It sounds cruel, but it’s true, right? The Braves are committed and so Philadelphia has an easier path to the division title. Will they take advantage? That remains to be seen, but its biggest competitor is short on manpower.

Furthermore, the Mets are doing what they always seem to do, which falls short of expectations. They have lost 22 of their last 32 games and are already out of the division race. They are 14.5 games behind! The Mets are focused on the wild card. The Nationals are improving, but they are not ready to compete yet. The Marlins? The less said about them, the better. They are a mess.

The Phillies started the season very well and built a six-game lead in the NL East. Atlanta’s injuries and the Mets’ Metsiness — circumstances beyond Philadelphia’s control — create an easier path to a division title for the Phillies, at least in theory. They could screw it up and the Braves could win the NL East anyway. The stars are aligned for Philadelphia now.

The Phillies are not perfect. Outside of a few good games here and there, Nick Castellanos isn’t hitting and they need him to get their season on track. The middle of the bullpen is shaky, though Philadelphia can afford to remain patient and see if things improve before making a move (or more than one) at the trade deadline. There are flaws, but for the most part, the Phillies are an excellent team that plays excellent baseball. Its position at the top of the ranking is not a coincidence.