Where Paul Skenes ranks among pitchers through Pirates flamethrower’s first three MLB starts

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes is scheduled to make his fourth big league start tonight against the Detroit Tigers as part of a doubleheader. (The Pirates and Tigers were eliminated on Tuesday.) Skenes, who entered the season universally regarded as the best pitcher in the minors, lived up to the hype in his first three starts, compiling a 2.25 ERA and a 21 ERA. a -4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16 innings pitched.

Many of the big mistakes made in baseball analysis come from reading too much into small samples. Still, we hope you understand that we are being descriptive, not predictive, when we present where Skenes would rank in a few key categories if he had enough entries to qualify (note that these numbers are as of last Thursday, following his most recent start ):

• K%: 33.9% (1st)
• BB% 6.5% (t-26)
• K-BB%: 27.4% (3rd)
• GB%: 64.7% (1st)

Take Tyler Glasnow’s strikeout and walk rates and combine them with Max Fried’s ground ball rates and you have… well, Skenes. That’s a brilliant combination, and it’s no wonder Skenes has been – and should continue to be – attending appointments.

With that in mind, here are three other statistical tidbits worth knowing about Skenes through his first three starts.

1. Toughest pitcher among the starters

We might as well start with the obvious. Everyone knows Skenes throws hard. How hard does he play? Tougher than any other starter in Major League Baseball.

Through early Thursday, Skenes’ average four-seam fastball this season is 155.3 mph. Only three pitchers have thrown harder on average (min. 100 fastballs), and each of them is a full-time reliever: Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller (160.9 mph), Arizona Diamondbacks rookie (and picked by CBS Sports) Justin Martínez (160.1 mph) and St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley (99.4 mph). That’s some impressive company for a beginner, if you ask us.

Only one other starting pitcher (minimum three games started) is within a mile per hour of Skenes’ average fastball velocity: Los Angeles Angels right-hander José Soriano. You see, the average fastball velocity for beginners this season is 93.4 mph. That leaves Skenes close to three standard deviations from the norm, according to TruMedia’s calculations. The only other starting pitcher with more than 2.5 deviations from average is Kyle Hendricks, the veteran Chicago Cubs right-hander who (to state the obvious) is on the other side of the spectrum.

2. Climbing the three-digit pitch leaderboard

Ah, you thought we had exhausted our speed-related Skenes information? Heavens no. The previous subheading was concerned with a rate statistic – Skenes’ average fastball velocity; This one is all about a counting statistic, or how often Skenes surpassed the century mark. Specifically, we wanted to see where Skenes ranked among pitchers in total number of pitches over 100 mph.

Predictably, the response speaks to Skenes’ elite arm strength. This is because he was already in the top 10, despite having only appeared three times. Here are the numbers from Skenes’ start on Thursday:

1. Mason Miller, 148
2. Michael Kopech, 87
3. Justin Martinez, 79
4. Camilo Doval, 56
5. Emmanuel Clase, 52
6. Ryan Helsley, 52
7. José Soriano, 43
8. Jhoan Duran, 34
9. Paul Skenes, 33
10. Hunter Greene, 28

You’ll notice two things: 1) Miller has really avoided this category; and 2) Soriano is the only starting pitcher listed ahead of Skenes. (And even then, Soriano’s first two appearances this season have been a relief.) As long as Skenes stays healthy and continues to average, say, 11 100-plus mph pitches per game, he’ll climb this chart. classification quickly.

We don’t want to repeat ourselves too often, but it’s worth mentioning one last time: Skenes has legitimately special arm strength for a starting pitcher.

3. Neglected control

There’s an old concept in baseball analytics circles called Nichols’ Law. He points out the flawed logic of how catchers who can’t hit are considered defensive geniuses – why else would a team bother drafting them? In theory, the pitcher’s version would contrast with strong pitchers and substandard control – if you throw hard, it must be misplaced. Skenes would be an excellent foil.

TruMedia tracks what percentage of each pitcher’s offerings are located within 18 inches of the center of the strike zone to form a “competitive location” metric. Generally, the pitchers who score best on this measure tend to be those who need to throw strikes to be successful. Just like those pitchers, you probably have a good idea where this is going, so let’s get straight to the point.

Here, as of Thursday afternoon, are the five starters with the most competitive pitching:

1. Joey Estes, 91.8%
2. Bryan Woo, 91.7%
3. Ty Blach, 91%
4. Tyler Alexander, 90.5%
5. Paul Skenes, 90.3%

You have a pitcher who throws harder than the average starter (Woo), a pitcher just below (Estes), two pitchers who hit somewhere in the 80s, and then, in what appears to be a cruel joke on opposing hitters , you have the aforementioned speed king.

No wonder opponents are finding it difficult to score runs against Skenes. No one else in the game matches your power level with your control type.