The Houston Astros announced Wednesday morning that Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are scheduled to undergo season-ending elbow surgery. With Lance McCullers Jr. recovering from elbow surgery and Luis Garcia recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Astros are one pitcher away from a stellar rotation…on the injured list.
What remains:
Let’s remember that JP France is also injured. The club’s depth is completely depleted. What happens if someone else gets hurt? Additionally, Brown (6.18 ERA, 5.01 FIP) and Arrighetti (5.79 ERA) weren’t exactly reliable. Verlander is 41 years old and has already started the season on the IL after offseason shoulder issues. Blanco has already set a career record for innings pitched in a season at 59 (he worked 52 last year).
On top of all that, the Astros’ dismal 12-24 start means they are working hard to get back to the postseason. With six games out of a playoff spot and seven games out in the AL West, that’s too close to call an ALCS mainstay a seller.
Where can the Astros turn for help?
Within the organization
There is hope that the top four spots in the rotation will hold. Valdez is an established frontcourt starter. Verlander could spend a season with his pedigree. Blanco was a revelation. Brown has been much better since the beginning of May. They could certainly use more depth, and things aren’t looking good at the upper levels of the minors. As noted, France is hurt. It’s a shoulder injury and he’s completely out, which means he’s very far away.
Some minor league options:
- Righty AJ Blubaugh has a 3.67 ERA in 49 innings this season, 45 of which have come at Triple-A. He struck out 50. Maybe that’s an option.
- Right-hander Blair Henley had a disaster of MLB debuts early this season and is inconsistent for Triple-A Sugar Land.
- The other two starters with the biggest Triple-A workloads have ERAs above 7.
- Lefty Colton Gordon has a 4.35 ERA but allows plenty of baserunners with a 1.55 WHIP.
- Would they cut Jake Bloss from Double-A? He was a third-round pick out of Georgetown last year. It would be a huge increase. The 6-foot-3 right-hander began the season in Class A. He has now made six starts in Double-A and sports a 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 28 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings.
Nothing here is guaranteed, which means they’ll probably need to dig around…
The commercial market
Given that it’s only June 5th and that there are so many teams still within striking distance of playoff position – a losing record holds the last NL wild card spot – you might be shocked at how many viable starting pitchers appear to be tradeable from non-competitors.
The Marlins could trade Jesús Luzardo and/or Braxton Garrett. The White Sox’ Erick Fedde has been great this season and it’s plausible they could trade Garrett Crochet as well. The Angels could rock Tyler Anderson and/or Reid Detmers. Luis Severino and Sean Manaea make sense as Mets trade candidates. The A’s Paul Blackburn is dealing with a foot injury and won’t return until after the All-Star break, in all likelihood, but he could make sense here in the future.
For expanded drill-downs on each commercial candidate, RJ Anderson did this while looking at potential business matches for the Orioles. Just send the plane to Houston instead of Baltimore.
This group gives the Astros multiple avenues of attack. There is the route of renting veterans (Severino, Manaea), moving on marginal options like Fedde and players with several years of control like Garrett, Detmers and Crochet.
Hold and wait
This doesn’t seem like the best plan of attack right now, as the Astros struggle on the periphery of the contest. However, if they believe they can continue to play well here in the short term – remember, they are now 16-10 in their last 26 games – things could get a lot more interesting on the trade market. Remember, at this time last season, no one expected the Mets to trade Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and they both ended up playing in the ALCS.
What if the Blue Jays change course and decide to sell? Yusei Kikuchi is a free agent after the season and perhaps they would be willing to lose salary by trading Chris Bassitt and/or Kevin Gausman (Gausman is under contract through 2026, so it’s a strong possibility; I’m just pointing out that sometimes things change).
On the other hand, there is always the possibility that the Astros go on another streak where they lose 2/3 of the games and fall out of it completely. That could put Alex Bregman (free agent after the year), Justin Verlander (vest option for next year) and Ryan Pressly (mutual option for next year) at risk.
I would bet that they would try to add up and do anything to remain a playoff contender, as GM Dana Brown insists will happenbut anything is possible and things can change in a matter of a few weeks.
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