2024 MLB Draft: What insiders are saying about class and why there’s a clear favorite to go No. 1

The Major League Baseball Amateur Draft is less than a month away. On Sunday, July 14, the Cleveland Guardians will bring the All-Star Game festivities by making the No. 1 selection for the first time in franchise history. (The Guardians have selected No. 2 on five occasions.)

CBS Sports has already begun the class analysis process. Last week we published our first mock draft It is our final rankings in the top 30 of the cycle. As part of these processes, we spoke with several scouts, analysts and directors who provided some insight into the class and emerging trends.

We decided to publish four of the most notable insights we’ve gleaned from our collection of experts, including who could come out on top and why chaos could reign supreme in the middle and late stages of the first round. Let’s go.

1. Bazzana is still the favorite for first place

We reported in February that other teams believed the Guardians were in love with Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana. The following four months did not change anything in this regard. How could they have done this? Bazzana had a phenomenal year, batting .407/.568/.911 with 28 home runs, 16 stolen bases and 40 more hits than strikeouts. He continues to earn above-average grades in his strength and speed, and has demonstrated appreciable feel in the barrel and strike zone. In short, he seems to check a lot of the boxes that Guardians in particular like to see checked.

Although no one denies Bazzana’s merits, he has inspired philosophical debates about the importance of physical projection. The evaluators we spoke to believed he was already at his limit, meaning he’s unlikely to improve his physicality in any tangible way; what you see is what you get. At the same time, Bazzana receives as many compliments on her makeup as any other student in the class. There is a real belief that if there is an adjustment to be made, he will make it. Everyone has a different preference regarding the ideal combination for a new player, and the matchup present in Bazzana’s profile creates an interesting dynamic and some varying opinions on where he should be taken.

Perhaps predictably, Bazzana was not viewed as the top overall prospect in the draft. That distinction was awarded to Georgia third baseman/outfielder Charlie Condon, who offers an appealing combination of contact, power and approach, and who looked better than expected at the hot corner. One scout said they would put Condon first regardless of the financial implications – the Guardians are unlikely to be so flippant with money when making their decision. Instead, first-year scouting director Ethan Purser seems certain he will look for additional savings that he can implement later. (In addition to No. 1, the Guardians will also select No. 36, 48 and 84.)

2. The heaviest class can lead to chaos

While it’s impossible to know what this class will look like five years from now, scouts have been excited about the group over the past four months. A scouting director estimated there were about a dozen strong candidates in the class. Other evaluators offered similar numbers, give or take a player here and there.

Where things will get interesting is what happens after these talents come off the board. The evaluators we spoke to didn’t offer much consensus on players ranked in the 20-40 range. That, in turn, could mean that teams have widely varying boards of directors — and widely varying desires to make deals, even if that means signing a player who might be ranked a little lower on public lists.

In other words, mock drafters are better off stopping after the first 15 choices if they want to preserve their hit rates.

3. Doctors will dictate the top 10 orders

Health is a ubiquitous factor in baseball, whether in free agency or the draft.

It should come as no surprise that Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery’s landing spot now has error bars attached after he injured his ankle during Super Regionals competition. Montgomery was considered a top 10, and maybe even top 5, thanks to his power. No matter how many scouts like Montgomery, his fate will now be dictated by doctors and their willingness to sign his ankle.

West Virginia infielder JJ Wetherholt, who entered the season ranked No. 1 by CBS Sports thanks to a complete game, could also have his exact position in the top 10 impacted by medical opinion if doctors have any lingering concerns about the injury in the hamstring. it cost him half the season.

These are also just the visible cases. There are always cases where players have a previously unknown or undisclosed issue that explains why they go a little later on draft night than expected.

4. The Prepsters had a great spring

In the spring, we realized that there had not been a project since MLB expanded to 30 teams that featured fewer than two high school players in the top 10. At the time, that fun fact seemed to be in serious jeopardy, as Mississippi outfielder/shortstop Konnor Griffin was the only prep we ranked in the top 15. Now? We are more confident that the sequence will remain intact.

In addition to Griffin — a potential star if his hit tool performs above current predictions — there could be four other prepsters in the top 20. That group includes California shortstop Bryce Rainer, a left-handed hitter with pop considered the best overall player. school player of the class; Arizona’s strong, athletic lefty Cam Caminiti; smooth-swinging, quick-swinging Texan infielder Theo Gillen; and Louisiana right-hander William Schmidt, who has a strong combination of speed and spin.